MatchPulse
Serie A

Serie A — xG (Expected Goals)

Brazil · 2026/27

Expected Goals (xG)

xG data available for 34 games
#TeamMPxGFxGF/gxGAxGA/gGFGADiff
1Flamengo3353.31.6129.60.906828+14.7
2RB Bragantino3452.41.5439.01.154439-8.4
3Vasco DA Gama3249.71.5532.61.024049-9.7
4Bahia3247.91.5044.61.394842+0.1
5Cruzeiro3347.91.4544.01.335246+4.1
6Santos3446.51.3745.11.335049+3.5
7Atletico Paranaense3345.01.3636.61.115040+5
8Internacional3344.81.3639.51.203742-7.8
9Fluminense3344.81.3637.21.135242+7.2
10Palmeiras3344.81.3630.60.935622+11.3
11Atletico-MG3242.11.3141.01.284439+1.9
12Botafogo3340.21.2249.11.494553+4.8
13Sao Paulo3239.31.2335.11.103939-0.3
14Mirassol3339.21.1946.51.413747-2.2
15Vitoria3335.71.0850.41.533548-0.7
16Gremio3335.21.0753.41.623744+1.8
17Remo3334.21.0446.61.413651+1.8
18Corinthians3334.11.0337.21.133642+1.9
19Coritiba3232.11.0047.11.474050+7.9
20Chapecoense-sc3231.40.9855.01.723266+0.6
xGF = xG For (created)xGA = xG Against (conceded)Diff = GF − xGF (over/under-performing)
xG Attack Ranking
FlamengoHigh xGF1.61
Vasco DA GamaHigh xGF1.55
RB BragantinoHigh xGF1.54
Chapecoense-scLow xGF0.98
CoritibaLow xGF1.00
CorinthiansLow xGF1.03

LEAGUE xG STATS

20 teams with xG data
League avg xGF/g: 1.28
League avg xGA/g: 1.28
Best overperformer: Flamengo (+14.7)
Biggest underperformer: Vasco DA Gama (-9.7)

Serie A (Brazil) — Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

The Serie A (Brazil) averages 1.28 xG per game this season. Flamengo creates the most chances with 1.61 xGF per game, while Chapecoense-sc creates the fewest with 0.98 xGF per game. Flamengo is over-performing their xG (68 goals vs 53.3 xGF) — regression likely. Vasco DA Gama is under-performing (40 goals vs 49.7 xGF) — improvement expected.

Betting Angle — xG & Regression Markets

xG is the most powerful predictor of future performance — teams that consistently over-perform their xG (scoring more than expected) tend to regress. Look for under-performing high-xG teams as value opportunities in match result markets, especially Asian Handicap and Both Teams To Score.

Expected Goals (xG) — Brazil