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Carioca - 1

Carioca - 1 — xG (Expected Goals)

Brazil · 2026

Brazil — Carioca - 1 2026 — Detailed Stats
Competition
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Goals
AVG TotalGoals ScoredGoals ConcededClean SheetsBTTSFailed To ScorexG (Expected Goals)
Over/Under
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Expected Goals (xG)

xG data available for 12 games
#TeamMPxGFxGF/gxGAxGA/gGFGADiff
1Flamengo918.32.037.00.782410+5.7
2Fluminense915.41.727.00.78147-1.4
3Vasco DA Gama914.31.5911.81.31116-3.3
4Portuguesa RJ1114.31.3013.61.241914+4.7
5Sampaio Corrêa RJ1013.91.3915.91.591722+3.1
6Botafogo910.41.1610.21.1497-1.4
7Boavista SC910.41.1510.21.13712-3.4
8CFRJ / Maricá1210.30.8616.81.401125+0.7
9Madureira99.91.1114.11.56718-2.9
10Volta Redonda99.71.0810.71.18118+1.3
11Nova Iguaçu98.60.9612.61.401515+6.4
12Bangu98.10.9013.71.521011+1.9
xGF = xG For (created)xGA = xG Against (conceded)Diff = GF − xGF (over/under-performing)
xG Attack Ranking
FlamengoHigh xGF2.03
FluminenseHigh xGF1.72
Vasco DA GamaHigh xGF1.59
CFRJ / MaricáLow xGF0.86
BanguLow xGF0.90
Nova IguaçuLow xGF0.96

LEAGUE xG STATS

12 teams with xG data
League avg xGF/g: 1.27
League avg xGA/g: 1.25
Best overperformer: Nova Iguaçu (+6.4)
Biggest underperformer: Boavista SC (-3.4)

Carioca - 1 (Brazil) — Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

The Carioca - 1 (Brazil) averages 1.27 xG per game this season. Flamengo creates the most chances with 2.03 xGF per game, while CFRJ / Maricá creates the fewest with 0.86 xGF per game. Nova Iguaçu is over-performing their xG (15 goals vs 8.6 xGF) — regression likely. Boavista SC is under-performing (7 goals vs 10.4 xGF) — improvement expected.

Betting Angle — xG & Regression Markets

xG is the most powerful predictor of future performance — teams that consistently over-perform their xG (scoring more than expected) tend to regress. Look for under-performing high-xG teams as value opportunities in match result markets, especially Asian Handicap and Both Teams To Score.

Expected Goals (xG) — Brazil