First League — xG (Expected Goals)
Bulgaria · 2026/27
Bulgaria — First League 2026/27 — Detailed Stats
Expected Goals (xG)
xG data available for 7 games| # | Team | MP | xGF | xGF/g | xGA | xGA/g | GF | GA | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CSKA Sofia | 7 | 16.4 | 2.34 | 8.6 | 1.23 | 29 | 9 | +12.6 |
| 2 |  CSKA 1948 | 6 | 11.0 | 1.84 | 8.6 | 1.44 | 31 | 14 | +20 |
| 3 |  Botev Plovdiv | 6 | 9.5 | 1.59 | 7.5 | 1.24 | 22 | 20 | +12.5 |
| 4 |  Botev Vratsa | 6 | 9.2 | 1.54 | 6.0 | 0.99 | 10 | 22 | +0.8 |
| 5 |  Ludogorets | 5 | 8.3 | 1.67 | 5.1 | 1.01 | 24 | 9 | +15.7 |
| 6 |  Arda Kardzhali | 6 | 8.0 | 1.34 | 9.8 | 1.64 | 18 | 19 | +10 |
| 7 |  Lokomotiv Sofia | 7 | 7.4 | 1.06 | 10.1 | 1.45 | 15 | 25 | +7.6 |
| 8 |  Cherno More Varna | 6 | 7.2 | 1.19 | 6.3 | 1.04 | 14 | 22 | +6.9 |
| 9 |  Septemvri Sofia | 6 | 6.6 | 1.09 | 8.6 | 1.44 | 11 | 25 | +4.4 |
| 10 |  Spartak Varna | 6 | 6.5 | 1.09 | 11.3 | 1.89 | 12 | 23 | +5.5 |
| 11 |  Levski Sofia | 6 | 6.3 | 1.04 | 3.6 | 0.60 | 25 | 5 | +18.8 |
| 12 |  Dunav Ruse | 6 | 6.0 | 0.99 | 8.9 | 1.49 | 15 | 22 | +9 |
| 13 |  Slavia Sofia | 7 | 5.1 | 0.72 | 9.8 | 1.40 | 9 | 9 | +3.9 |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 6 | 4.5 | 0.75 | 7.8 | 1.29 | 6 | 17 | +1.5 |
xGF = xG For (created)xGA = xG Against (conceded)Diff = GF − xGF (over/under-performing)
* xG estimated from shots on goal using the league's average conversion rate. API xG data is not available for this league.
xG Attack Ranking
LEAGUE xG STATS
14 teams with xG data
League avg xGF/g: 1.30
League avg xGA/g: 1.30
Best overperformer: CSKA 1948 (+20.0)
First League (Bulgaria) — Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
The First League (Bulgaria) averages 1.30 xG per game this season. CSKA Sofia creates the most chances with 2.34 xGF per game, while Slavia Sofia creates the fewest with 0.72 xGF per game. CSKA 1948 is over-performing their xG (31 goals vs 11.0 xGF) — regression likely.
Betting Angle — xG & Regression Markets
xG is the most powerful predictor of future performance — teams that consistently over-perform their xG (scoring more than expected) tend to regress. Look for under-performing high-xG teams as value opportunities in match result markets, especially Asian Handicap and Both Teams To Score.
Expected Goals (xG) — Bulgaria
- Cup xG— Division Silver
- Pro Cup xG
- Second League xG— Division Underground
- Super Cup xG— Division Gold
- Third League - Northeast xG— Division Amateur
- Third League - Northwest xG— Division Amateur
- Third League - Southeast xG— Division Amateur
- Third League - Southwest xG— Division Amateur