Premier League — Home Advantage
Wales · 2026/27
Home Advantage
| # | Team | Home Advantage | Scored | Defence | PPG (Home / Away) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Colwyn Bay | +36% | +25% | +47% | 2.75/1.00 |
| 2 |  Flint Town United | +31% | +32% | +30% | 1.00/0.88 |
| 3 |  The New Saints | +29% | +9% | +50% | 2.78/2.67 |
| 4 |  Cambrian & Clydach | +24% | +11% | +36% | 1.57/0.88 |
| 5 |  Llandudno | +23% | +16% | +30% | 1.86/0.38 |
| 6 |  GAP Connah S Quay FC | +23% | +6% | +39% | 2.38/2.29 |
| 7 |  Airbus UK | +17% | +23% | +12% | 2.14/1.50 |
| 8 |  Briton Ferry | +16% | +19% | +14% | 1.43/0.63 |
| 9 |  Holywell | +8% | +14% | +2% | 0.29/0.00 |
| 10 |  Caernarfon Town | +8% | +7% | +9% | 1.71/2.13 |
| 11 |  Barry Town | +6% | +6% | +7% | 2.00/1.71 |
| 12 |  Ammanford AFC | 0% | +7% | -7% | 0.57/0.63 |
| 13 |  Haverfordwest County AFC | -2% | +10% | -14% | 1.13/1.00 |
| 14 |  Penybont | -15% | -20% | -9% | 2.43/2.29 |
| 15 |  Cardiff MET | -21% | +9% | -52% | 1.38/1.57 |
| 16 |  Trefelin | -23% | -45% | -1% | 0.14/0.63 |
1. Home Advantage: How much a team's results improve on their own ground versus on the road — a combined signal from both attack and defence.
2. Scored: Compares goals scored per game at home against goals scored per game away. A positive figure means the team finds the net more easily at home.
3. Defence: Compares goals conceded per game at home against goals conceded away. A positive figure means the team keeps opponents quieter on their own turf.
The combined Home Advantage score is the average of the Scoring and Defence figures, weighted equally.
Goal-based metrics give a sharper picture of home performance than win/loss records alone, since they reflect the margin of each match.
Premier League (Wales) — Home Advantage Analysis
In the Premier League (Wales), the average home win rate is 48% compared to 37% away — a clear indicator that home advantage is a significant factor. Colwyn Bay shows the strongest home advantage, winning 88% of home games versus just 29% away (a difference of +59%). At the other end, Trefelin actually performs better away than at home, with a home win rate of 0% versus 13% on the road.
Home Goals Scored
| # | Team | Scoring Advantage | Home Scored / match | Away Scored / match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flint Town United | +32% | 1.71 | 0.88 |
| 2 | Colwyn Bay | +25% | 2.13 | 1.29 |
| 3 | Airbus UK | +23% | 2.57 | 1.63 |
| 4 | Briton Ferry | +19% | 1.29 | 0.88 |
| 5 | Llandudno | +16% | 1.71 | 1.25 |
| 6 | Holywell | +14% | 1.14 | 0.86 |
| 7 | Cambrian & Clydach | +11% | 1.71 | 1.38 |
| 8 | Haverfordwest County AFC | +10% | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| 9 | Cardiff MET | +9% | 1.88 | 1.57 |
| 10 | The New Saints | +9% | 3.78 | 3.17 |
| 11 | Caernarfon Town | +7% | 3.00 | 2.63 |
| 12 | Ammanford AFC | +7% | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| 13 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | +6% | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| 14 | Barry Town | +6% | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| 15 | Penybont | -20% | 1.71 | 2.57 |
| 16 | Trefelin | -45% | 0.29 | 0.75 |
Premier League (Wales) — Home Goals Scored Analysis
Flint Town United has the biggest scoring advantage at home in the Premier League (Wales), netting 1.71 goals/match at home versus 0.88 away — a Scoring Advantage of +32%. In contrast, Trefelin scores more away (0.75/match) than at home (0.29/match), representing a scoring disadvantage of -45% at their own ground. A high positive Scoring Advantage is a key signal for Over 2.5 and BTTS betting markets in home fixtures.
Home Defence (Conceded)
| # | Team | Defence Advantage | Home Conceded / match | Away Conceded / match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | +50% | 0.22 | 0.67 |
| 2 | Colwyn Bay | +47% | 0.63 | 1.71 |
| 3 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | +39% | 0.38 | 0.86 |
| 4 | Cambrian & Clydach | +36% | 1.57 | 3.38 |
| 5 | Flint Town United | +30% | 1.14 | 2.13 |
| 6 | Llandudno | +30% | 1.29 | 2.38 |
| 7 | Briton Ferry | +14% | 1.43 | 1.88 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | +12% | 1.29 | 1.63 |
| 9 | Caernarfon Town | +9% | 1.14 | 1.38 |
| 10 | Barry Town | +7% | 1.63 | 1.86 |
| 11 | Holywell | +2% | 3.43 | 3.57 |
| 12 | Trefelin | -1% | 2.43 | 2.38 |
| 13 | Ammanford AFC | -7% | 3.00 | 2.63 |
| 14 | Penybont | -9% | 0.86 | 0.71 |
| 15 | Haverfordwest County AFC | -14% | 1.50 | 1.14 |
| 16 | Cardiff MET | -52% | 2.25 | 0.71 |
Premier League (Wales) — Home Defence Analysis
The New Saints has the best home defensive record in the Premier League (Wales), conceding just 0.22 goals/match at home compared to 0.67 away — a Defence Advantage of +50%. This makes them an excellent Clean Sheet and Under 2.5 candidate in home fixtures. On the flip side, Cardiff MET concedes more at home (2.25/match) than away (0.71/match), suggesting their home defence struggles despite the crowd backing. High Defence Advantage combined with low scoring opponents points strongly to Under 2.5 and BTTS No outcomes.
1st Half — Home Goals Scored
| # | Team | Scoring Advantage | Home Scored / match | Away Scored / match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cambrian & Clydach | +60% | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| 2 | Flint Town United | +48% | 0.71 | 0.25 |
| 3 | Briton Ferry | +31% | 0.71 | 0.38 |
| 4 | Airbus UK | +31% | 1.43 | 0.75 |
| 5 | Holywell | +25% | 0.71 | 0.43 |
| 6 | Cardiff MET | +14% | 0.75 | 0.57 |
| 7 | The New Saints | +11% | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 8 | Caernarfon Town | +1% | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| 9 | Llandudno | -4% | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| 10 | Barry Town | -13% | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| 11 | Penybont | -20% | 1.14 | 1.71 |
| 12 | Colwyn Bay | -21% | 0.75 | 1.14 |
| 13 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | -26% | 0.75 | 1.29 |
| 14 | Trefelin | -27% | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| 15 | Haverfordwest County AFC | -39% | 0.13 | 0.29 |
| 16 | Ammanford AFC | -45% | 0.14 | 0.38 |
Premier League (Wales) — Home Goals Scored (1st Half) Analysis
In the 1st Half, Cambrian & Clydach has the biggest home scoring advantage in the Premier League (Wales), netting 1.00 goals/match at home versus 0.25 away — a Scoring Advantage of +60%. At the other end, Ammanford AFC shows the weakest home output in this period, with 0.14/match at home against 0.38 away (-45%). First-half scoring patterns are key indicators for Half-Time result and Asian Handicap markets.
1st Half — Home Defence (Conceded)
| # | Team | Defence Advantage | Home Conceded / match | Away Conceded / match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | +100% | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| 2 | The New Saints | +64% | 0.11 | 0.50 |
| 3 | Cambrian & Clydach | +45% | 0.57 | 1.50 |
| 4 | Flint Town United | +33% | 0.57 | 1.13 |
| 5 | Barry Town | +26% | 0.50 | 0.86 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | +26% | 0.50 | 0.86 |
| 7 | Briton Ferry | +21% | 0.57 | 0.88 |
| 8 | Llandudno | +6% | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| 9 | Holywell | -4% | 1.86 | 1.71 |
| 10 | Airbus UK | -7% | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| 11 | Trefelin | -7% | 1.43 | 1.25 |
| 12 | Penybont | -20% | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| 13 | Caernarfon Town | -26% | 0.86 | 0.50 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | -36% | 1.86 | 0.88 |
| 15 | Haverfordwest County AFC | -45% | 0.38 | 0.14 |
| 16 | Cardiff MET | -68% | 0.75 | 0.14 |
Premier League (Wales) — Home Defence (1st Half) Analysis
In the 1st Half, GAP Connah S Quay FC has the best home defensive record in the Premier League (Wales), conceding just 0.00 goals/match at home compared to 0.29 away — a Defence Advantage of +100%. Cardiff MET struggles most in this period at home, conceding 0.75/match at home versus 0.14 away (-68%). Strong first-half home defence is a reliable indicator for Half-Time 0-0 and Under 0.5 HT markets.
2nd Half — Home Goals Scored
| # | Team | Scoring Advantage | Home Scored / match | Away Scored / match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | +81% | 1.38 | 0.14 |
| 2 | Ammanford AFC | +39% | 0.57 | 0.25 |
| 3 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | +35% | 1.50 | 0.71 |
| 4 | Llandudno | +29% | 1.14 | 0.63 |
| 5 | Haverfordwest County AFC | +27% | 0.75 | 0.43 |
| 6 | Barry Town | +23% | 1.38 | 0.86 |
| 7 | Flint Town United | +23% | 1.00 | 0.63 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | +13% | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| 9 | Caernarfon Town | +11% | 1.71 | 1.38 |
| 10 | The New Saints | +7% | 2.11 | 1.83 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | +7% | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| 12 | Cardiff MET | +6% | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| 13 | Holywell | 0% | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| 14 | Penybont | -20% | 0.57 | 0.86 |
| 15 | Cambrian & Clydach | -22% | 0.71 | 1.13 |
| 16 | Trefelin | -56% | 0.14 | 0.50 |
Premier League (Wales) — Home Goals Scored (2nd Half) Analysis
In the 2nd Half, Colwyn Bay has the biggest home scoring advantage in the Premier League (Wales), netting 1.38 goals/match at home versus 0.14 away — a Scoring Advantage of +81%. At the other end, Trefelin shows the weakest home output in this period, with 0.14/match at home against 0.50 away (-56%). Second-half scoring advantage is particularly valuable for live betting and Over/Under markets in the final stages.
2nd Half — Home Defence (Conceded)
| # | Team | Defence Advantage | Home Conceded / match | Away Conceded / match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | +75% | 0.13 | 0.86 |
| 2 | Llandudno | +63% | 0.29 | 1.25 |
| 3 | Caernarfon Town | +51% | 0.29 | 0.88 |
| 4 | Cambrian & Clydach | +30% | 1.00 | 1.88 |
| 5 | Airbus UK | +27% | 0.57 | 1.00 |
| 6 | Flint Town United | +27% | 0.57 | 1.00 |
| 7 | Ammanford AFC | +21% | 1.14 | 1.75 |
| 8 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | +21% | 0.38 | 0.57 |
| 9 | The New Saints | +20% | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| 10 | Holywell | +8% | 1.57 | 1.86 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | +8% | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| 12 | Trefelin | +6% | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| 13 | Penybont | 0% | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| 14 | Barry Town | -6% | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| 15 | Haverfordwest County AFC | -6% | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| 16 | Cardiff MET | -45% | 1.50 | 0.57 |
Premier League (Wales) — Home Defence (2nd Half) Analysis
In the 2nd Half, Colwyn Bay has the best home defensive record in the Premier League (Wales), conceding just 0.13 goals/match at home compared to 0.86 away — a Defence Advantage of +75%. Cardiff MET struggles most in this period at home, conceding 1.50/match at home versus 0.57 away (-45%). A high second-half home defence advantage is a strong signal for Under 1.5 2H and Clean Sheet in the second period.
Home Advantage Tables — Wales
- FAW Championship Home Advantage— Division Silver
- League Cup Home Advantage— Division Pro
- Welsh Cup Home Advantage— Division Silver