Dover vs Chelmsford City — National League - South
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Dover and Chelmsford City meet in the National League - South 2026 season on 27 October 2026. Dover have recorded 11 wins from 21 matches this season (52% win rate), averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 57% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 52%; and clean sheets in 24% of games. Chelmsford City have won 38% of their 16 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 50%, Over 2.5 at 25%, and clean sheets at 44%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.49 for Dover and 1.74 for Chelmsford City. The models give Dover a 33% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Chelmsford City win at 42%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 63% and BTTS at 64%.
Season Statistics
Dover—
Chelmsford City11º
Position
15º
1.58
PPG
1.36
42%
Win %
18%
1.58
Goals / game
1.55
1.50
Conceded / game
1.00
57%
BTTS %
50%
24%
Clean sheet %
44%
52%
Over 2.5 %
25%
2.0
Avg corners
0.0
12.0
Avg shots
0.0
7.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
2.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
33.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Dover
Home (6)
—
Chelmsford City
Away (6)
1.33
PPG
1.33
33%
Win %
17%
1.83
Goals / game
2.00
1.83
Conceded / game
1.17
62%
BTTS %
55%
15%
Clean sheet %
36%
62%
Over 2.5 %
27%
2.0
Avg corners
0.0
12.0
Avg shots
0.0
7.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
2.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
33.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Dover | Home | Away | Chelmsford City | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 81% | 77% | 88% | 81% | 60% | 91% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 48% | 54% | 38% | 31% | 20% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 24% | 31% | 13% | 25% | 20% | 27% |
| Failed To Score | 19% | 23% | 13% | 19% | 40% | 9% |
Goals Conceded
| Dover | Home | Away | Chelmsford City | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 76% | 85% | 63% | 56% | 40% | 64% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 48% | 54% | 38% | 13% | 20% | 9% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 19% | 31% | 0% | 13% | 20% | 9% |
| Clean Sheets | 24% | 15% | 38% | 44% | 60% | 36% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Dover | Chelmsford City | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 88% |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 25% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 25% |
| Over 4.5 | 24% | 19% |
| BTTS | 57% | 50% |
| BTTS & Win | 29% | 6% |
| BTTS & Draw | 29% | 44% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 43% | 19% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 10% | 6% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Dover | Chelmsford City | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 52% | 44% |
| Draw 1st Half | 29% | 56% |
| Loss 1st Half | 19% | 0% |
| Scored 1st Half | 62% | 56% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 43% | 19% |
| Win 2nd Half | 19% | 19% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 48% | 50% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 33% | 31% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 62% | 38% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 71% | 44% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 81% | 56% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 33% | 25% |
Recent Venue Form
Dover (H)W
Dorking Wanderers3–2
Dorking Wanderers3–2DDorking Wanderers1–1
Dorking Wanderers1–1W
AFC Totton2–0
AFC Totton2–0W
Folkestone Invicta4–2
Folkestone Invicta4–2L
Maidenhead0–3
Maidenhead0–3D
Braintree3–3
Braintree3–3Chelmsford City (A)L
Wimborne Town0–1
Wimborne Town0–1W
Chesham United5–0
Chesham United5–0W
Brackley Town2–0
Brackley Town2–0W
Canvey Island1–0
Canvey Island1–0D
Hampton & Richmond1–1
Hampton & Richmond1–1DDorking Wanderers3–3
Dorking Wanderers3–3Team Corners
| Team Corners | Dover | Chelmsford City |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| Corners Against / Match | 8.0 | 0.0 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 0% | 0% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 0% | 0% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 100% | 0% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 100% | 0% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 100% | 0% |
Head to Head · 8 matches
2
Dover
25%
4
Draws
50%
2
Chelmsford City
25%
50%
Over 1.5
4/8
38%
Over 2.5
3/8
25%
Over 3.5
2/8
50%
BTTS
4/8
21/03/26Dover
Chelmsford City
1–2Dover28/10/25Chelmsford City
Dover
0–1Chelmsford City01/04/24Chelmsford City
Dover
1–0Chelmsford City23/10/23Dover
Chelmsford City
3–3Dover18/02/23Chelmsford City
Dover
0–0Chelmsford City07/11/22Dover
Chelmsford City
0–0Dover13/11/12Chelmsford City
Dover
2–4Chelmsford City10/11/12Dover
Chelmsford City
1–1Dover| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Maidstone Utd | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | +9 | 26 |
| 2 |  Ebbsfleet United | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | +20 | 25 |
| 3 |  Truro City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Dagenham & Redbridge | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 23 |
| 5 |  Salisbury | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | +12 | 22 |
| 6 |  Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +11 | 21 |
| 7 |  Tonbridge Angels | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +10 | 21 |
| 8 | Dorking Wanderers | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
| 9 |  Farnham Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +7 | 20 |
| 10 | Folkestone Invicta | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +6 | 19 |
| 11 | Dover | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 19 |
| 12 |  Weston-super-Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 |  Horsham | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 14 |  Torquay | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | +3 | 17 |
| 15 | Chelmsford City | 11 | 2 | 9 | 0 | +6 | 15 |
| 16 |  Hemel Hempstead Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 |  Farnborough | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 14 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 19 | AFC Totton | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 13 |
| 20 | Chesham United | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 10 |
| 21 | Braintree | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 23 |  Walton & Hersham | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 24 |  Slough Town | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -21 | 4 |
Team Insights
Dover- ●Dover have been undefeated in their last 5 matches.
- ●Dover have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Dover have been undefeated in their last 5 away matches.
- ●Dover have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Dover failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Dover have won 3 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Dover have scored in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Dover have scored 58% of their goals in the first half.
Chelmsford City- ●Chelmsford City have been undefeated in their last 11 matches.
- ●Chelmsford City have been undefeated in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Chelmsford City have been undefeated in their last 6 away matches.
- ●Chelmsford City have scored in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Chelmsford City have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Chelmsford City failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Chelmsford City have scored in 6 of their 6 away matches.
- ●71% of Chelmsford City's goals have been scored away.
- ●Chelmsford City have scored 76% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
DoverDASalisbury1–1
Salisbury1–1DHDorking Wanderers1–1
Dorking Wanderers1–1WHAFC Totton2–0
AFC Totton2–0WAFarnborough1–0
Farnborough1–0WADagenham & Redbridge1–0
Dagenham & Redbridge1–0LHMaidenhead0–3
Maidenhead0–3–HChelmsford City27/10
Chelmsford City27/10–HFarnham Town31/10
Farnham Town31/10–ATorquay07/11
Torquay07/11Chelmsford CityDHTonbridge Angels3–3
Tonbridge Angels3–3WAChesham United5–0
Chesham United5–0DHHorsham0–0
Horsham0–0DAHampton & Richmond1–1
Hampton & Richmond1–1DADorking Wanderers3–3
Dorking Wanderers3–3DHSalisbury1–1
Salisbury1–1–ADover27/10
Dover27/10–AAFC Totton31/10
AFC Totton31/10–HFarnham Town02/11
Farnham Town02/11Top Scorers
DoverD. Sheriff8 ⚽
J. Bates6 ⚽
E. Williams3 ⚽
R. Onu3 ⚽
L. Baptiste2 ⚽
S. Fish1 ⚽
Chelmsford CityG. Alexander4 ⚽
H. Barbrook3 ⚽
L. Sery3 ⚽
A. May2 ⚽
C. Cooper2 ⚽
R. Browne2 ⚽
Cards Given
Dover2 🟨
R. Charles-Cook1 🟨
Chelmsford CityLyle Taylor1 🟨
1 🟨