Chelmsford City vs Ebbsfleet United — National League - South
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Chelmsford City and Ebbsfleet United meet in the National League - South 2026 season on 9 November 2026. Chelmsford City have recorded 8 wins from 19 matches this season (42% win rate), averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 47% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 26%; and clean sheets in 42% of games. Ebbsfleet United have won 48% of their 23 matches, with 1.91 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 61%, Over 2.5 at 65%, and clean sheets at 30%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.19 for Chelmsford City and 1.39 for Ebbsfleet United. The models give Chelmsford City a 33% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an Ebbsfleet United win at 39%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 48% and BTTS at 52%.
Season Statistics
Chelmsford City—
Ebbsfleet United12º
Position
3º
1.50
PPG
2.15
29%
Win %
62%
1.50
Goals / game
2.23
1.00
Conceded / game
0.77
47%
BTTS %
61%
42%
Clean sheet %
30%
26%
Over 2.5 %
65%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Chelmsford City
Home (6)
—
Ebbsfleet United
Away (6)
1.17
PPG
2.17
17%
Win %
67%
0.83
Goals / game
1.67
1.00
Conceded / game
1.00
33%
BTTS %
58%
50%
Clean sheet %
25%
17%
Over 2.5 %
67%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Chelmsford City | Home | Away | Ebbsfleet United | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 79% | 50% | 92% | 83% | 91% | 77% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 32% | 17% | 38% | 50% | 36% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 26% | 17% | 31% | 33% | 27% | 38% |
| Failed To Score | 21% | 50% | 8% | 17% | 9% | 23% |
Goals Conceded
| Chelmsford City | Home | Away | Ebbsfleet United | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 58% | 50% | 62% | 67% | 64% | 69% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 16% | 33% | 8% | 33% | 36% | 31% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 11% | 17% | 8% | 8% | 0% | 15% |
| Clean Sheets | 42% | 50% | 38% | 33% | 36% | 31% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Chelmsford City | Ebbsfleet United | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 89% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% |
| Over 2.5 | 26% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 42% |
| Over 4.5 | 16% | 21% |
| BTTS | 47% | 58% |
| BTTS & Win | 11% | 25% |
| BTTS & Draw | 37% | 17% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 21% | 46% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 5% | 21% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Chelmsford City | Ebbsfleet United | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 47% | 46% |
| Draw 1st Half | 53% | 38% |
| Loss 1st Half | 0% | 17% |
| Scored 1st Half | 58% | 58% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 16% | 33% |
| Win 2nd Half | 16% | 42% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 47% | 33% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 37% | 25% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 32% | 54% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 47% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 58% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 26% | 46% |
Recent Venue Form
Chelmsford City (H)L
Farnham Town0–2
Farnham Town0–2D
Tonbridge Angels3–3
Tonbridge Angels3–3D
Horsham0–0
Horsham0–0D
Salisbury1–1
Salisbury1–1W
Maidenhead1–0
Maidenhead1–0D
Truro City0–0
Truro City0–0Ebbsfleet United (A)W
Farnborough6–0
Farnborough6–0LTruro City0–3
Truro City0–3W
Maidstone Utd3–1
Maidstone Utd3–1W
Hampton & Richmond2–0
Hampton & Richmond2–0D
Slough Town1–1
Slough Town1–1WTonbridge Angels2–1
Tonbridge Angels2–1Head to Head · 8 matches
1
Chelmsford City
13%
2
Draws
25%
5
Ebbsfleet United
63%
38%
Over 1.5
3/8
25%
Over 2.5
2/8
0%
Over 3.5
0/8
25%
BTTS
2/8
20/12/25Ebbsfleet United
Chelmsford City
0–1Ebbsfleet United19/08/25Chelmsford City
Ebbsfleet United
1–0Chelmsford City25/02/23Ebbsfleet United
Chelmsford City
0–1Ebbsfleet United17/01/23Chelmsford City
Ebbsfleet United
2–0Chelmsford City07/05/22Chelmsford City
Ebbsfleet United
2–1Chelmsford City30/08/21Ebbsfleet United
Chelmsford City
0–0Ebbsfleet United29/09/15Chelmsford City
Ebbsfleet United
1–2Chelmsford City26/09/15Ebbsfleet United
Chelmsford City
0–0Ebbsfleet United| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Truro City | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | +15 | 30 |
| 2 | Maidstone Utd | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +8 | 29 |
| 3 | Ebbsfleet United | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +19 | 28 |
| 4 | Salisbury | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 28 |
| 5 | Farnham Town | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +10 | 26 |
| 6 |  Billericay Town | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | +16 | 25 |
| 7 | Tonbridge Angels | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | +11 | 24 |
| 8 |  Dorking Wanderers | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | +10 | 24 |
| 9 |  Dagenham & Redbridge | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 24 |
| 10 | Horsham | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | +5 | 22 |
| 11 |  Dover | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 22 |
| 12 | Chelmsford City | 14 | 4 | 9 | 1 | +7 | 21 |
| 13 |  Torquay | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +5 | 20 |
| 14 |  Folkestone Invicta | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | +4 | 20 |
| 15 |  Weston-super-Mare | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 18 |
| 16 | Farnborough | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 17 |
| 17 |  Braintree | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 16 |
| 18 |  AFC Totton | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | -13 | 16 |
| 19 | Maidenhead | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 20 |  Hemel Hempstead Town | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -8 | 15 |
| 21 |  Chesham United | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 11 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 9 |
| 23 |  Walton & Hersham | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -23 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | -24 | 4 |
Team Insights
Chelmsford City- ●Chelmsford City have failed to win in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Chelmsford City have won their last 3 away matches.
- ●Chelmsford City have scored in each of their last 8 away matches.
- ●Chelmsford City have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Chelmsford City failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Chelmsford City have won 3 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Chelmsford City have scored in 8 of their 8 away matches.
- ●76% of Chelmsford City's goals have been scored away.
- ●67% of Chelmsford City's points have been earned away.
- ●Chelmsford City have scored 81% of their goals in the first half.
Ebbsfleet United- ●Ebbsfleet United have been undefeated in their last 7 home matches.
- ●Ebbsfleet United have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Ebbsfleet United have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Ebbsfleet United have scored in 6 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Ebbsfleet United have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Ebbsfleet United have won 5 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Ebbsfleet United have scored in 6 of their 7 away matches.
Season Schedule
Chelmsford CityLHFarnham Town0–2
Farnham Town0–2WAAFC Totton3–1
AFC Totton3–1WADover1–0
Dover1–0DHTonbridge Angels3–3
Tonbridge Angels3–3WAChesham United5–0
Chesham United5–0DHHorsham0–0
Horsham0–0–HFarnborough07/11
Farnborough07/11–HEbbsfleet United09/11
Ebbsfleet United09/11–AWalton & Hersham21/11
Walton & Hersham21/11Ebbsfleet UnitedWAFarnborough6–0
Farnborough6–0LATruro City0–3
Truro City0–3WAMaidstone Utd3–1
Maidstone Utd3–1WHMaidenhead4–0
Maidenhead4–0DHHorsham2–2
Horsham2–2WHWeston-super-Mare6–1
Weston-super-Mare6–1–HChesham United07/11
Chesham United07/11–AChelmsford City09/11
Chelmsford City09/11–ADorking Wanderers21/11
Dorking Wanderers21/11Top Scorers
Chelmsford CityG. Alexander4 ⚽
H. Barbrook4 ⚽
J. Barham3 ⚽
L. Sery3 ⚽
A. May2 ⚽
C. Cooper2 ⚽
Ebbsfleet UnitedD. Ogunleye6 ⚽
F. Barnes6 ⚽
K. Appiah5 ⚽
B. Chapman5 ⚽
C. Seaman4 ⚽
G. Kennedy3 ⚽
Cards Given
Chelmsford CityLyle Taylor1 🟨
1 🟨
Ebbsfleet UnitedC. Gbadebo2 🟨
J. Vennings1 🟨