Llantwit Major vs Aberystwyth Town — FAW Championship
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Llantwit Major and Aberystwyth Town meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 5 December 2026. Llantwit Major have recorded 3 wins from 12 matches this season (25% win rate), averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 58% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 58%; and clean sheets in 17% of games. Aberystwyth Town have won 73% of their 11 matches, with 2.64 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 64%, Over 2.5 at 73%, and clean sheets at 27%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.52 for Llantwit Major and 1.98 for Aberystwyth Town. The models give Llantwit Major a 30% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Aberystwyth Town win at 46%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 68% and BTTS at 68%.
Season Statistics
Llantwit Major—
Aberystwyth Town15º
Position
2º
1.00
PPG
2.20
27%
Win %
70%
1.09
Goals / game
2.40
2.18
Conceded / game
1.00
58%
BTTS %
64%
17%
Clean sheet %
27%
58%
Over 2.5 %
73%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Llantwit Major
Home (5)
—
Aberystwyth Town
Away (3)
0.80
PPG
3.00
20%
Win %
100%
1.00
Goals / game
3.67
1.60
Conceded / game
1.67
40%
BTTS %
100%
20%
Clean sheet %
0%
40%
Over 2.5 %
100%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Llantwit Major | Home | Away | Aberystwyth Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 75% | 60% | 86% | 82% | 75% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 33% | 40% | 29% | 64% | 50% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | 55% | 38% | 100% |
| Failed To Score | 25% | 40% | 14% | 18% | 25% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Llantwit Major | Home | Away | Aberystwyth Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 83% | 80% | 86% | 73% | 63% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 50% | 40% | 57% | 27% | 13% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 50% | 40% | 57% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 17% | 20% | 14% | 27% | 38% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Llantwit Major | Aberystwyth Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 91% |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 73% |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 55% |
| Over 4.5 | 42% | 36% |
| BTTS | 58% | 64% |
| BTTS & Win | 8% | 55% |
| BTTS & Draw | 17% | 0% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 42% | 64% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 17% | 9% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Llantwit Major | Aberystwyth Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 17% | 55% |
| Draw 1st Half | 25% | 45% |
| Loss 1st Half | 58% | 0% |
| Scored 1st Half | 50% | 73% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 83% | 27% |
| Win 2nd Half | 25% | 55% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 33% | 18% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 42% | 27% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 50% | 73% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 42% | 55% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 100% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 67% | 45% |
Recent Venue Form
Llantwit Major (H)L
Newport City2–3
Newport City2–3D
Pontardawe Town1–1
Pontardawe Town1–1W
llanelli AFC2–0
llanelli AFC2–0L
Baglan Dragons0–1
Baglan Dragons0–1L
Swansea University0–3
Swansea University0–3L
Cambrian & Clydach1–3
Cambrian & Clydach1–3Aberystwyth Town (A)W
Pontypridd Town3–1
Pontypridd Town3–1W
Caerphilly Athletic3–2
Caerphilly Athletic3–2W
Afan Lido5–2
Afan Lido5–2D
Ynyshir Albions0–0
Ynyshir Albions0–0L
Cwmbran Celtic1–3
Cwmbran Celtic1–3LCambrian & Clydach0–2
Cambrian & Clydach0–2Head to Head · 3 matches
0
Llantwit Major
0%
1
Draws
33%
2
Aberystwyth Town
67%
100%
Over 1.5
3/3
100%
Over 2.5
3/3
67%
Over 3.5
2/3
100%
BTTS
3/3
22/08/26Llantwit Major
Aberystwyth Town
5–1Llantwit Major04/04/26Llantwit Major
Aberystwyth Town
2–2Llantwit Major26/07/25Aberystwyth Town
Llantwit Major
1–2Aberystwyth Town| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | +17 | 31 |
| 1 | Pontypridd Town | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +11 | 24 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | +17 | 27 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | +14 | 22 |
| 3 |  Mold Alexandra | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 3 |  Caerau (Ely) | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 4 |  Porthmadog | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +6 | 24 |
| 4 | Swansea University | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +17 | 21 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 21 |
| 5 | Ynyshir Albions | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +8 | 19 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 6 | Baglan Dragons | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | +6 | 19 |
| 7 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Treowen Stars | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Carmarthen Town | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 |  Llanuwchllyn | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 15 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Rhyl | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Newport City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 14 |  Cardiff Draconians | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 |  Ruthin Town | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 12 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 11 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 7 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -31 | 2 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -31 | 1 |
Team Insights
Llantwit Major- ●Llantwit Major have scored in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Llantwit Major have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Llantwit Major failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Llantwit Major failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Llantwit Major have scored in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●67% of Llantwit Major's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●64% of Llantwit Major's points have been earned away.
- ●Llantwit Major have scored 58% of their goals in the first half.
Aberystwyth Town- ●Aberystwyth Town have won their last 3 away matches.
- ●Aberystwyth Town have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Aberystwyth Town have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 7 home matches.
Season Schedule
Llantwit MajorLHNewport City2–3
Newport City2–3WACaerau (Ely)2–0
Caerau (Ely)2–0DHPontardawe Town1–1
Pontardawe Town1–1LAPontypridd Town1–4
Pontypridd Town1–4WACarmarthen Town2–1
Carmarthen Town2–1WHllanelli AFC2–0
llanelli AFC2–0–ATrethomas Bluebirds07/11
Trethomas Bluebirds07/11–HCardiff Draconians14/11
Cardiff Draconians14/11–AYnyshir Albions21/11
Ynyshir Albions21/11Aberystwyth TownWHTrethomas Bluebirds2–1
Trethomas Bluebirds2–1LHCaerau (Ely)0–1
Caerau (Ely)0–1WAPontypridd Town3–1
Pontypridd Town3–1DHSwansea University0–0
Swansea University0–0WACaerphilly Athletic3–2
Caerphilly Athletic3–2WHllanelli AFC4–0
llanelli AFC4–0–ACarmarthen Town07/11
Carmarthen Town07/11–ACardiff Draconians21/11
Cardiff Draconians21/11–HPontypridd Town28/11
Pontypridd Town28/11Top Scorers
Llantwit MajorT. M. Stokes4 ⚽
A. Roscrow3 ⚽
T. Tweedy3 ⚽
C. Goldsworthy1 ⚽
C. Kinsella1 ⚽
Aberystwyth TownA. Williams7 ⚽
R. Hughes3 ⚽
L. Walsh3 ⚽
D. Browne2 ⚽
T. Evans2 ⚽
D. Owen2 ⚽
Cards Given
Llantwit MajorAberystwyth TownG. Sedgwick2 🟨
L. Walsh2 🟨