Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town — FAW Championship
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Caerau (Ely) and Pontypridd Town meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 6 November 2026. Caerau (Ely) have recorded 9 wins from 18 matches this season (50% win rate), averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 56% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 61%; and clean sheets in 33% of games. Pontypridd Town have won 55% of their 11 matches, with 2.55 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 91%, Over 2.5 at 82%, and clean sheets at 0%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.92 for Caerau (Ely) and 2.02 for Pontypridd Town. The models give Caerau (Ely) a 43% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Pontypridd Town win at 34%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 75% and BTTS at 74%.
Season Statistics
Caerau (Ely)—
Pontypridd Town4º
Position
2º
1.73
PPG
1.91
55%
Win %
55%
2.00
Goals / game
2.55
1.82
Conceded / game
1.91
56%
BTTS %
91%
33%
Clean sheet %
0%
61%
Over 2.5 %
82%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Caerau (Ely)
Home (6)
—
Pontypridd Town
Away (6)
1.67
PPG
2.00
50%
Win %
50%
1.67
Goals / game
3.00
1.67
Conceded / game
2.17
45%
BTTS %
100%
45%
Clean sheet %
0%
55%
Over 2.5 %
83%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Caerau (Ely) | Home | Away | Pontypridd Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 83% | 82% | 86% | 91% | 80% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 56% | 64% | 43% | 73% | 60% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 44% | 45% | 43% | 55% | 40% | 67% |
| Failed To Score | 17% | 18% | 14% | 9% | 20% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Caerau (Ely) | Home | Away | Pontypridd Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 67% | 55% | 86% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 50% | 36% | 71% | 45% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 22% | 18% | 29% | 27% | 20% | 33% |
| Clean Sheets | 33% | 45% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Caerau (Ely) | Pontypridd Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 91% |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 82% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 64% |
| Over 4.5 | 39% | 55% |
| BTTS | 56% | 91% |
| BTTS & Win | 22% | 55% |
| BTTS & Draw | 11% | 27% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 82% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 11% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Caerau (Ely) | Pontypridd Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 35% | 45% |
| Draw 1st Half | 41% | 27% |
| Loss 1st Half | 24% | 27% |
| Scored 1st Half | 47% | 64% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 35% | 45% |
| Win 2nd Half | 47% | 36% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 18% | 18% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 35% | 45% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 65% | 73% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 59% | 73% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 65% | 82% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 29% | 64% |
Recent Venue Form
Caerau (Ely) (H)L
Llantwit Major0–2
Llantwit Major0–2W
llanelli AFC6–0
llanelli AFC6–0W
Afan Lido2–0
Afan Lido2–0Wllanelli AFC3–0
llanelli AFC3–0W
Treowen Stars3–2
Treowen Stars3–2L
Swansea University1–5
Swansea University1–5Pontypridd Town (A)D
Newport City4–4
Newport City4–4D
Baglan Dragons1–1
Baglan Dragons1–1W
Caerphilly Athletic2–1
Caerphilly Athletic2–1DSwansea University4–4
Swansea University4–4W
Cardiff Draconians4–1
Cardiff Draconians4–1WTreowen Stars3–2
Treowen Stars3–2Head to Head · 6 matches
1
Caerau (Ely)
17%
2
Draws
33%
3
Pontypridd Town
50%
50%
Over 1.5
3/6
33%
Over 2.5
2/6
33%
Over 3.5
2/6
33%
BTTS
2/6
18/04/26Caerau (Ely)
Pontypridd Town
0–0Caerau (Ely)25/08/25Pontypridd Town
Caerau (Ely)
2–0Pontypridd Town04/02/25Pontypridd Town
Caerau (Ely)
0–1Pontypridd Town23/08/24Caerau (Ely)
Pontypridd Town
1–0Caerau (Ely)25/01/20Caerau (Ely)
Pontypridd Town
4–4Caerau (Ely)19/10/19Caerau (Ely)
Pontypridd Town
3–1Caerau (Ely)| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | +17 | 30 |
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 21 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +15 | 24 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +6 | 23 |
| 3 |  Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 19 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 20 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 6 |  Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +6 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 17 |
| 8 |  Carmarthen Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 |  Llanuwchllyn | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 10 | Caerphilly Athletic | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 |  Rhyl | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | Llantwit Major | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 11 |
| 13 |  Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 |  Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 |  Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Newport City | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 15 | Cardiff Draconians | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -27 | 2 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Team Insights
Caerau (Ely)- ●Caerau (Ely) have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have won 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in 5 of their 5 away matches.
Pontypridd Town- ●Pontypridd Town have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
- ●Pontypridd Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 11 matches.
- ●Pontypridd Town have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Pontypridd Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Pontypridd Town have been undefeated in their last 6 away matches.
- ●Pontypridd Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Pontypridd Town have scored in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Pontypridd Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Pontypridd Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Pontypridd Town have won 3 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Pontypridd Town have scored in 6 of their 6 away matches.
- ●64% of Pontypridd Town's goals have been scored away.
Season Schedule
Caerau (Ely)LHLlantwit Major0–2
Llantwit Major0–2WAAberystwyth Town1–0
Aberystwyth Town1–0WHAfan Lido2–0
Afan Lido2–0WACardiff Draconians3–1
Cardiff Draconians3–1WHllanelli AFC3–0
llanelli AFC3–0WHTreowen Stars3–2
Treowen Stars3–2–ACaerphilly Athletic30/10
Caerphilly Athletic30/10–HPontypridd Town06/11
Pontypridd Town06/11–HNewport City20/11
Newport City20/11Pontypridd TownDANewport City4–4
Newport City4–4DABaglan Dragons1–1
Baglan Dragons1–1WHLlantwit Major4–1
Llantwit Major4–1LHAberystwyth Town1–3
Aberystwyth Town1–3WACaerphilly Athletic2–1
Caerphilly Athletic2–1LHAfan Lido0–1
Afan Lido0–1–Hllanelli AFC30/10
llanelli AFC30/10–ACaerau (Ely)06/11
Caerau (Ely)06/11–HCarmarthen Town20/11
Carmarthen Town20/11Top Scorers
Caerau (Ely)T. Parker6 ⚽
L. Bishop5 ⚽
D. Griffiths4 ⚽
L. Harling3 ⚽
J. Bahumaid3 ⚽
O. Foote2 ⚽
Pontypridd TownE. Edwards8 ⚽
E. Phipps2 ⚽
G. Tedstone2 ⚽
J. Bevan2 ⚽
J. Jones2 ⚽
J. Stephens2 ⚽
Cards Given
Caerau (Ely)J. Woodiwiss2 🟨
D. Griffiths1 🟨
Pontypridd TownL. Angel2 🟨