Afan Lido vs Caerphilly Athletic — FAW Championship
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Afan Lido and Caerphilly Athletic meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 6 November 2026. Afan Lido have recorded 4 wins from 14 matches this season (29% win rate), averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 64%; and clean sheets in 43% of games. Caerphilly Athletic have won 42% of their 12 matches, with 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 58%, Over 2.5 at 75%, and clean sheets at 25%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.95 for Afan Lido and 1.54 for Caerphilly Athletic. The models give Afan Lido a 45% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Caerphilly Athletic win at 31%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 68% and BTTS at 68%.
Season Statistics
Afan Lido—
Caerphilly Athletic9º
Position
10º
1.25
PPG
1.27
33%
Win %
36%
1.75
Goals / game
1.36
1.83
Conceded / game
1.82
50%
BTTS %
58%
43%
Clean sheet %
25%
64%
Over 2.5 %
75%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Afan Lido
Home (6)
—
Caerphilly Athletic
Away (6)
1.50
PPG
1.17
33%
Win %
33%
2.17
Goals / game
1.17
1.67
Conceded / game
2.00
43%
BTTS %
50%
57%
Clean sheet %
17%
57%
Over 2.5 %
83%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Afan Lido | Home | Away | Caerphilly Athletic | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 79% | 71% | 86% | 75% | 83% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 43% | 57% | 29% | 42% | 50% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 21% | 29% | 14% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| Failed To Score | 21% | 29% | 14% | 25% | 17% | 33% |
Goals Conceded
| Afan Lido | Home | Away | Caerphilly Athletic | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 57% | 43% | 71% | 75% | 67% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 57% | 43% | 71% | 58% | 50% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 36% | 43% | 29% | 33% | 17% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 43% | 57% | 29% | 25% | 33% | 17% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Afan Lido | Caerphilly Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 86% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 42% |
| Over 4.5 | 36% | 17% |
| BTTS | 50% | 58% |
| BTTS & Win | 0% | 25% |
| BTTS & Draw | 7% | 8% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 58% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 14% | 17% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Afan Lido | Caerphilly Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 21% | 25% |
| Draw 1st Half | 64% | 33% |
| Loss 1st Half | 14% | 42% |
| Scored 1st Half | 50% | 42% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 43% | 50% |
| Win 2nd Half | 36% | 25% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 14% | 42% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 50% | 33% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 71% | 58% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 50% | 67% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 57% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 50% | 58% |
Recent Venue Form
Afan Lido (H)L
Penybont2–3
Penybont2–3D
Swansea University5–5
Swansea University5–5D
Newport City0–0
Newport City0–0D
Ynyshir Albions0–0
Ynyshir Albions0–0W
Pontardawe Town1–0
Pontardawe Town1–0W
Llantwit Major5–0
Llantwit Major5–0Caerphilly Athletic (A)W
Carmarthen Town3–1
Carmarthen Town3–1LSwansea University1–3
Swansea University1–3D
Trethomas Bluebirds2–2
Trethomas Bluebirds2–2W
Baglan Dragons1–0
Baglan Dragons1–0L
Treowen Stars0–3
Treowen Stars0–3LPontardawe Town0–3
Pontardawe Town0–3| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | +17 | 30 |
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 21 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +15 | 24 |
| 2 |  Pontypridd Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +6 | 23 |
| 3 |  Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 19 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 |  Caerau (Ely) | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 20 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +6 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 17 |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 |  Llanuwchllyn | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 10 | Caerphilly Athletic | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 |  Rhyl | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | Llantwit Major | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 11 |
| 13 |  Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 |  Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Newport City | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 15 |  Cardiff Draconians | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 |  llanelli AFC | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -27 | 2 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Team Insights
Afan Lido- ●Afan Lido have been undefeated in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Afan Lido have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Afan Lido have lost 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Afan Lido have scored in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●62% of Afan Lido's goals have been scored at home.
Caerphilly Athletic- ●Caerphilly Athletic have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Caerphilly Athletic failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Caerphilly Athletic have scored in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Caerphilly Athletic have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Caerphilly Athletic have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Caerphilly Athletic failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Caerphilly Athletic failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 away matches.
Season Schedule
Afan LidoWAllanelli AFC3–0
llanelli AFC3–0DHSwansea University5–5
Swansea University5–5LACaerau (Ely)0–2
Caerau (Ely)0–2DHNewport City0–0
Newport City0–0WAPontypridd Town1–0
Pontypridd Town1–0LABaglan Dragons1–2
Baglan Dragons1–2–ACardiff Draconians31/10
Cardiff Draconians31/10–HCaerphilly Athletic06/11
Caerphilly Athletic06/11–ATreowen Stars21/11
Treowen Stars21/11Caerphilly AthleticWACarmarthen Town3–1
Carmarthen Town3–1WHNewport City3–2
Newport City3–2LASwansea University1–3
Swansea University1–3LHPontypridd Town1–2
Pontypridd Town1–2LHAberystwyth Town2–3
Aberystwyth Town2–3DATrethomas Bluebirds2–2
Trethomas Bluebirds2–2–HCaerau (Ely)30/10
Caerau (Ely)30/10–AAfan Lido06/11
Afan Lido06/11–Hllanelli AFC20/11
llanelli AFC20/11Top Scorers
Afan LidoL. Griffiths5 ⚽
A. Giardelli5 ⚽
J. Pascoe2 ⚽
B. Roberts2 ⚽
C. Keetch2 ⚽
1 ⚽
Caerphilly AthleticF. Skiverton5 ⚽
D. Perrett4 ⚽
E. Humphries2 ⚽
T. Jordan2 ⚽
J. Evans1 ⚽
L. Reed1 ⚽