Treowen Stars vs Baglan Dragons — FAW Championship
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Treowen Stars and Baglan Dragons meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 31 October 2026. Treowen Stars have recorded 4 wins from 7 matches this season (57% win rate), averaging 2.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 71% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 71%; and clean sheets in 29% of games. Baglan Dragons have won 50% of their 8 matches, with 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 38%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 38%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.54 for Treowen Stars and 1.30 for Baglan Dragons. The models give Treowen Stars a 48% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Baglan Dragons win at 27%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 54% and BTTS at 57%.
Season Statistics
Treowen Stars—
Baglan Dragons3º
Position
5º
1.86
PPG
1.63
57%
Win %
50%
2.29
Goals / game
1.00
1.43
Conceded / game
1.00
71%
BTTS %
38%
29%
Clean sheet %
38%
71%
Over 2.5 %
50%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Treowen Stars
Home (3)
—
Baglan Dragons
Away (4)
1.33
PPG
1.75
33%
Win %
50%
2.00
Goals / game
0.75
1.33
Conceded / game
0.50
67%
BTTS %
25%
33%
Clean sheet %
75%
67%
Over 2.5 %
25%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Treowen Stars | Home | Away | Baglan Dragons | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 100% | 100% | 100% | 63% | 50% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 86% | 67% | 100% | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 29% | 33% | 25% | 13% | 25% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 0% | 0% | 0% | 38% | 50% | 25% |
Goals Conceded
| Treowen Stars | Home | Away | Baglan Dragons | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 71% | 67% | 75% | 63% | 100% | 25% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 43% | 33% | 50% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 29% | 33% | 25% | 13% | 25% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 29% | 33% | 25% | 38% | 0% | 75% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Treowen Stars | Baglan Dragons | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 88% |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 13% |
| Over 4.5 | 43% | 0% |
| BTTS | 71% | 38% |
| BTTS & Win | 29% | 25% |
| BTTS & Draw | 14% | 0% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 57% | 38% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 14% | 13% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Treowen Stars | Baglan Dragons | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 43% | 38% |
| Draw 1st Half | 29% | 50% |
| Loss 1st Half | 29% | 13% |
| Scored 1st Half | 57% | 50% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 43% | 38% |
| Win 2nd Half | 71% | 13% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 14% | 38% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 14% | 50% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 86% | 13% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 57% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 86% | 63% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 43% | 50% |
Recent Venue Form
Treowen Stars (H)D
Llantwit Major1–1
Llantwit Major1–1W
Caerphilly Athletic3–0
Caerphilly Athletic3–0L
Pontypridd Town2–3
Pontypridd Town2–3W
Carmarthen Town4–1
Carmarthen Town4–1L
Ammanford AFC1–5
Ammanford AFC1–5L
Afan Lido0–1
Afan Lido0–1Baglan Dragons (A)L
Cardiff Draconians1–2
Cardiff Draconians1–2W
Newport City1–0
Newport City1–0WLlantwit Major1–0
Llantwit Major1–0D
Trethomas Bluebirds0–0
Trethomas Bluebirds0–0L
Cambrian & Clydach0–2
Cambrian & Clydach0–2LAmmanford AFC0–1
Ammanford AFC0–1Head to Head · 2 matches
2
Treowen Stars
100%
0
Draws
0%
0
Baglan Dragons
0%
100%
Over 1.5
2/2
100%
Over 2.5
2/2
100%
Over 3.5
2/2
100%
BTTS
2/2
17/03/26Baglan Dragons
Treowen Stars
4–1Baglan Dragons24/10/25Treowen Stars
Baglan Dragons
3–4Treowen Stars| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +17 | 21 |
| 1 |  Swansea University | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +17 | 16 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +15 | 19 |
| 2 |  Aberystwyth Town | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 3 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +11 | 17 |
| 3 | Treowen Stars | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +6 | 13 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 15 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 |  Porthmadog | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Carmarthen Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 7 |  Caersws | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Caerau (Ely) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 |  Llanuwchllyn | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 8 | Afan Lido | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 |  Rhyl | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| 10 |  Guilsfield | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 |  Ynyshir Albions | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 9 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 |  Buckley Town | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Cardiff Draconians | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Newport City | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 13 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 |  Ruthin Town | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 4 |
| 14 |  Pontardawe Town | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 15 |  llanelli AFC | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -17 | 2 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -18 | 1 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 1 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -22 | 1 |
Team Insights
Treowen Stars- ●Treowen Stars have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Treowen Stars have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Treowen Stars have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●62% of Treowen Stars's goals have been scored away.
- ●69% of Treowen Stars's points have been earned away.
Baglan Dragons- ●63% of Baglan Dragons's goals have been scored at home.
- ●75% of Baglan Dragons's goals conceded were conceded at home.
- ●Baglan Dragons have scored 88% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Treowen StarsDHLlantwit Major1–1
Llantwit Major1–1WAllanelli AFC2–0
llanelli AFC2–0LACaerau (Ely)2–3
Caerau (Ely)2–3WACarmarthen Town4–2
Carmarthen Town4–2WHCaerphilly Athletic3–0
Caerphilly Athletic3–0WAAberystwyth Town2–1
Aberystwyth Town2–1–APontardawe Town26/09
Pontardawe Town26/09–HYnyshir Albions03/10
Ynyshir Albions03/10–HTrethomas Bluebirds10/10
Trethomas Bluebirds10/10Baglan DragonsLACardiff Draconians1–2
Cardiff Draconians1–2WHAfan Lido2–1
Afan Lido2–1LHCaerphilly Athletic0–1
Caerphilly Athletic0–1WHCaerau (Ely)3–1
Caerau (Ely)3–1WANewport City1–0
Newport City1–0WALlantwit Major1–0
Llantwit Major1–0–HCarmarthen Town25/09
Carmarthen Town25/09–Allanelli AFC02/10
llanelli AFC02/10–HPontypridd Town10/10
Pontypridd Town10/10Top Scorers
Treowen StarsT. Hillman5 ⚽
C. Davies3 ⚽
M. Evans2 ⚽
T. Gameson2 ⚽
J. Foxwell1 ⚽
L. Oliver1 ⚽
Baglan DragonsT. Jones4 ⚽
T. Davies3 ⚽
A. Garland1 ⚽
Cards Given
Treowen StarsJ. Evans1 🟨
Baglan DragonsK. Parsons1 🟨