Llantwit Major vs Newport City — FAW Championship
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Llantwit Major and Newport City meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 31 October 2026. Llantwit Major have recorded 3 wins from 11 matches this season (27% win rate), averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.27 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 55% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 55%; and clean sheets in 18% of games. Newport City have won 25% of their 12 matches, with 1.75 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 50%, Over 2.5 at 58%, and clean sheets at 17%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.34 for Llantwit Major and 1.70 for Newport City. The models give Llantwit Major a 37% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Newport City win at 38%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 58% and BTTS at 60%.
Season Statistics
Llantwit Major—
Newport City12º
Position
14º
1.10
PPG
1.00
30%
Win %
22%
1.00
Goals / game
1.78
2.10
Conceded / game
1.44
55%
BTTS %
50%
18%
Clean sheet %
17%
55%
Over 2.5 %
58%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Llantwit Major
Home (4)
—
Newport City
Away (5)
1.00
PPG
1.60
25%
Win %
40%
0.75
Goals / game
2.20
1.25
Conceded / game
1.00
25%
BTTS %
57%
25%
Clean sheet %
29%
25%
Over 2.5 %
57%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Llantwit Major | Home | Away | Newport City | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 73% | 50% | 86% | 58% | 40% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 27% | 25% | 29% | 42% | 20% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 20% | 43% |
| Failed To Score | 27% | 50% | 14% | 42% | 60% | 29% |
Goals Conceded
| Llantwit Major | Home | Away | Newport City | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 82% | 75% | 86% | 83% | 100% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 45% | 25% | 57% | 42% | 60% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 45% | 25% | 57% | 33% | 40% | 29% |
| Clean Sheets | 18% | 25% | 14% | 17% | 0% | 29% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Llantwit Major | Newport City | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 | 36% | 42% |
| BTTS | 55% | 50% |
| BTTS & Win | 9% | 17% |
| BTTS & Draw | 18% | 17% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 36% | 42% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 18% | 17% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Llantwit Major | Newport City | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 18% | 25% |
| Draw 1st Half | 27% | 25% |
| Loss 1st Half | 55% | 50% |
| Scored 1st Half | 45% | 25% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 82% | 67% |
| Win 2nd Half | 18% | 50% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 36% | 25% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 45% | 25% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 45% | 58% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 45% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 100% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 64% | 58% |
Recent Venue Form
Llantwit Major (H)D
Pontardawe Town1–1
Pontardawe Town1–1W
llanelli AFC2–0
llanelli AFC2–0L
Baglan Dragons0–1
Baglan Dragons0–1L
Swansea University0–3
Swansea University0–3L
Cambrian & Clydach1–3
Cambrian & Clydach1–3L
Caerau (Ely)1–4
Caerau (Ely)1–4Newport City (A)W
Carmarthen Town5–4
Carmarthen Town5–4L
Caerphilly Athletic2–3
Caerphilly Athletic2–3D
Cardiff Draconians1–1
Cardiff Draconians1–1D
Afan Lido0–0
Afan Lido0–0WPontardawe Town4–0
Pontardawe Town4–0Wllanelli AFC4–1
llanelli AFC4–1Head to Head · 5 matches
1
Llantwit Major
20%
2
Draws
40%
2
Newport City
40%
100%
Over 1.5
5/5
60%
Over 2.5
3/5
20%
Over 3.5
1/5
80%
BTTS
4/5
20/02/26Llantwit Major
Newport City
2–1Llantwit Major08/11/25Newport City
Llantwit Major
2–2Newport City28/03/25Llantwit Major
Newport City
2–1Llantwit Major12/10/24Newport City
Llantwit Major
1–1Newport City20/07/24Newport City
Llantwit Major
2–0Newport City| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | +17 | 30 |
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 21 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +15 | 24 |
| 2 |  Pontypridd Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +6 | 23 |
| 3 |  Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 19 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 20 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 6 |  Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +6 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 17 |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 |  Llanuwchllyn | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 10 | Caerphilly Athletic | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 |  Rhyl | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | Llantwit Major | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 11 |
| 13 |  Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 |  Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Newport City | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 15 | Cardiff Draconians | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -27 | 2 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Team Insights
Llantwit Major- ●Llantwit Major have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Llantwit Major have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Llantwit Major failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Llantwit Major have scored in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●70% of Llantwit Major's goals have been scored away.
- ●76% of Llantwit Major's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●64% of Llantwit Major's points have been earned away.
- ●Llantwit Major have scored 60% of their goals in the first half.
Newport City- ●Newport City have failed to win in their last 6 matches.
- ●Newport City have failed to win in their last 4 home matches.
- ●69% of Newport City's goals have been scored away.
- ●89% of Newport City's points have been earned away.
- ●Newport City have conceded 69% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Llantwit MajorWACaerau (Ely)2–0
Caerau (Ely)2–0DHPontardawe Town1–1
Pontardawe Town1–1LAPontypridd Town1–4
Pontypridd Town1–4WACarmarthen Town2–1
Carmarthen Town2–1WHllanelli AFC2–0
llanelli AFC2–0DATreowen Stars1–1
Treowen Stars1–1–HNewport City31/10
Newport City31/10–ATrethomas Bluebirds07/11
Trethomas Bluebirds07/11–HCardiff Draconians14/11
Cardiff Draconians14/11Newport CityDHPontypridd Town4–4
Pontypridd Town4–4LACaerphilly Athletic2–3
Caerphilly Athletic2–3DACardiff Draconians1–1
Cardiff Draconians1–1DAAfan Lido0–0
Afan Lido0–0LHYnyshir Albions0–1
Ynyshir Albions0–1LHBaglan Dragons0–1
Baglan Dragons0–1–ALlantwit Major31/10
Llantwit Major31/10–HTreowen Stars06/11
Treowen Stars06/11–ACaerau (Ely)20/11
Caerau (Ely)20/11Top Scorers
Llantwit MajorA. Roscrow3 ⚽
T. M. Stokes3 ⚽
T. Tweedy2 ⚽
C. Goldsworthy1 ⚽
C. Kinsella1 ⚽
Newport CityS. Johnson7 ⚽
T. Lynch2 ⚽
2 ⚽
J. Norris1 ⚽
E. Bregua1 ⚽
R. Booth1 ⚽