Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely) — FAW Championship
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Caerphilly Athletic and Caerau (Ely) meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 30 October 2026. Caerphilly Athletic have recorded 2 wins from 7 matches this season (29% win rate), averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 43% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 71%; and clean sheets in 29% of games. Caerau (Ely) have won 38% of their 13 matches, with 2.15 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 69%, Over 2.5 at 69%, and clean sheets at 23%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.88 for Caerphilly Athletic and 1.79 for Caerau (Ely). The models give Caerphilly Athletic a 38% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Caerau (Ely) win at 38%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 71% and BTTS at 71%.
Season Statistics
Caerphilly AthleticCaerau (Ely)Home vs Away
Goals Scored
| Caerphilly Athletic | Home | Away | Caerau (Ely) | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 57% | 67% | 50% | 85% | 88% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 43% | 67% | 25% | 54% | 63% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | 46% | 50% | 40% |
| Failed To Score | 43% | 33% | 50% | 15% | 13% | 20% |
Goals Conceded
| Caerphilly Athletic | Home | Away | Caerau (Ely) | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 71% | 67% | 75% | 77% | 63% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 57% | 33% | 75% | 62% | 38% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 43% | 33% | 50% | 31% | 25% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 29% | 33% | 25% | 23% | 38% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Caerphilly Athletic | Caerau (Ely) | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 86% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 92% |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 54% |
| Over 4.5 | 14% | 46% |
| BTTS | 43% | 69% |
| BTTS & Win | 14% | 23% |
| BTTS & Draw | 14% | 15% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 43% | 62% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 29% | 8% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Caerphilly Athletic | Caerau (Ely) | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 14% | 33% |
| Draw 1st Half | 43% | 42% |
| Loss 1st Half | 43% | 25% |
| Scored 1st Half | 29% | 50% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 57% | 42% |
| Win 2nd Half | 29% | 33% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 43% | 25% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 29% | 42% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 57% | 58% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 71% | 67% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 71% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 43% | 33% |
Recent Venue Form
Caerphilly Athletic (H)
Aberystwyth Town2–3
Ynyshir Albions2–1
Cardiff Draconians0–0
Caldicot Town1–3
Penrhyncoch2–4
Carmarthen Stars4–1Caerau (Ely) (A)
Baglan Dragons1–3
Trethomas Bluebirds4–2
Carmarthen Town3–4
Haverfordwest County AFC1–2
Evesham United0–2
Pontypridd Town0–0| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +17 | 21 |
| 1 |  Swansea University | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +17 | 16 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +15 | 19 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 3 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +11 | 17 |
| 3 |  Treowen Stars | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +6 | 13 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 15 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 |  Porthmadog | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Carmarthen Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 7 |  Caersws | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 | Caerau (Ely) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 |  Llanuwchllyn | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 8 |  Afan Lido | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 |  Rhyl | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| 10 |  Guilsfield | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 | Ynyshir Albions | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 9 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 |  Buckley Town | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Cardiff Draconians | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Newport City | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 13 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 |  Ruthin Town | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 4 |
| 14 |  Pontardawe Town | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 15 |  llanelli AFC | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -17 | 2 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -18 | 1 |
| 16 |  Llantwit Major | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 1 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -22 | 1 |
Team Insights
Caerphilly Athletic- ●67% of Caerphilly Athletic's goals conceded were conceded away.
Caerau (Ely)- ●Caerau (Ely) have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
Season Schedule
Caerphilly AthleticAberystwyth Town2–3Trethomas Bluebirds2–2Baglan Dragons1–0Ynyshir Albions2–1Treowen Stars0–3Cardiff Draconians0–0Pontypridd Town25/09Swansea University03/10Newport City09/10Caerau (Ely)llanelli AFC3–0Treowen Stars3–2Baglan Dragons1–3Swansea University1–5Trethomas Bluebirds4–2Ynyshir Albions1–1Cardiff Draconians26/09Afan Lido02/10Aberystwyth Town10/10Top Scorers
Caerphilly AthleticCaerau (Ely)Cards Given
Caerphilly AthleticCaerau (Ely)