HNL — xG (Expected Goals)
Croatia · 2026/27
Croatia — HNL 2026/27 — Detailed Stats
Expected Goals (xG)
xG data available for 12 games| # | Team | MP | xGF | xGF/g | xGA | xGA/g | GF | GA | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 11 | 23.3 | 2.12 | 12.1 | 1.10 | 25 | 14 | +1.7 |
| 2 |  HNK Rijeka | 11 | 18.3 | 1.66 | 11.7 | 1.06 | 18 | 15 | -0.3 |
| 3 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 12 | 17.8 | 1.49 | 10.8 | 0.90 | 26 | 11 | +8.2 |
| 4 |  NK Osijek | 11 | 17.4 | 1.58 | 18.0 | 1.63 | 22 | 17 | +4.6 |
| 5 |  NK Varazdin | 12 | 17.2 | 1.43 | 10.8 | 0.90 | 16 | 11 | -1.2 |
| 6 |  Istra 1961 | 11 | 16.1 | 1.46 | 14.3 | 1.30 | 21 | 18 | +4.9 |
| 7 |  NK Slaven Belupo | 12 | 13.4 | 1.11 | 20.6 | 1.72 | 14 | 25 | +0.6 |
| 8 |  NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 11 | 12.4 | 1.13 | 18.4 | 1.67 | 14 | 20 | +1.6 |
| 9 |  Rudes | 12 | 10.8 | 0.90 | 22.4 | 1.87 | 15 | 27 | +4.2 |
| 10 |  HNK Gorica | 11 | 10.3 | 0.93 | 17.9 | 1.62 | 7 | 20 | -3.3 |
xGF = xG For (created)xGA = xG Against (conceded)Diff = GF − xGF (over/under-performing)
xG Attack Ranking
LEAGUE xG STATS
10 teams with xG data
League avg xGF/g: 1.38
League avg xGA/g: 1.38
Best overperformer: HNK Hajduk Split (+8.2)
Biggest underperformer: HNK Gorica (-3.3)
HNL (Croatia) — Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
The HNL (Croatia) averages 1.38 xG per game this season. Dinamo Zagreb creates the most chances with 2.12 xGF per game, while Rudes creates the fewest with 0.90 xGF per game. HNK Hajduk Split is over-performing their xG (26 goals vs 17.8 xGF) — regression likely. HNK Gorica is under-performing (7 goals vs 10.3 xGF) — improvement expected.
Betting Angle — xG & Regression Markets
xG is the most powerful predictor of future performance — teams that consistently over-perform their xG (scoring more than expected) tend to regress. Look for under-performing high-xG teams as value opportunities in match result markets, especially Asian Handicap and Both Teams To Score.
Expected Goals (xG) — Croatia
- Cup xG— Division Silver
- First NL xG— Division Pro
- Second NL xG— Division Pro
- Super Cup xG— Division Gold
- Third NL - Istok xG— Division Amateur
- Third NL - Jug xG— Division Amateur
- Third NL - Sjever xG— Division Amateur
- Third NL - Sredite xG— Division Amateur
- Third NL - Zapad xG— Division Amateur