Progreso vs Defensor Sporting — Primera División
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Parque Abraham Paladino·Montevideo·Uruguay·7,500
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Progreso and Defensor Sporting meet in the Primera División 2026 season on 1 November 2026. Progreso have recorded 11 wins from 41 matches this season (27% win rate), averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 46% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 41%; and clean sheets in 17% of games. Defensor Sporting have won 20% of their 41 matches, with 0.85 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 51%, Over 2.5 at 29%, and clean sheets at 24%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.24 for Progreso and 1.29 for Defensor Sporting. The models give Progreso a 38% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an Defensor Sporting win at 34%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 45% and BTTS at 50%.
Season Statistics
Progreso—
Defensor Sporting15º
Position
8º
0.67
PPG
1.40
13%
Win %
33%
0.80
Goals / game
0.87
1.53
Conceded / game
0.73
46%
BTTS %
51%
17%
Clean sheet %
24%
41%
Over 2.5 %
29%
3.3
Avg corners
4.4
8.7
Avg shots
7.4
4.3
Avg shots on target
3.8
2.3
Avg yellow cards
3.4
0.0
Avg fouls
14.0
41.3%
Avg possession
51.6%
Home vs Away
Progreso
Home (8)
—
Defensor Sporting
Away (8)
0.63
PPG
0.88
13%
Win %
13%
0.88
Goals / game
0.63
1.75
Conceded / game
0.88
42%
BTTS %
58%
16%
Clean sheet %
11%
47%
Over 2.5 %
21%
3.3
Avg corners
4.4
8.7
Avg shots
7.4
4.3
Avg shots on target
3.8
2.3
Avg yellow cards
3.4
41.3%
Avg possession
51.6%
Goals Scored
| Progreso | Home | Away | Defensor Sporting | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 61% | 58% | 64% | 63% | 68% | 58% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 24% | 26% | 23% | 20% | 23% | 16% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 2% | 5% | 0% | 2% | 5% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 39% | 42% | 36% | 37% | 32% | 42% |
Goals Conceded
| Progreso | Home | Away | Defensor Sporting | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 83% | 84% | 82% | 76% | 64% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 44% | 53% | 36% | 27% | 32% | 21% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 10% | 16% | 5% | 15% | 18% | 11% |
| Clean Sheets | 17% | 16% | 18% | 24% | 36% | 11% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Progreso | Defensor Sporting | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 98% | 88% |
| Over 1.5 | 66% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 29% |
| Over 3.5 | 12% | 15% |
| Over 4.5 | 5% | 10% |
| BTTS | 46% | 51% |
| BTTS & Win | 12% | 7% |
| BTTS & Draw | 15% | 27% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 39% | 27% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 2% | 2% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Progreso | Defensor Sporting | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 22% | 15% |
| Draw 1st Half | 34% | 59% |
| Loss 1st Half | 44% | 27% |
| Scored 1st Half | 37% | 39% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 54% | 49% |
| Win 2nd Half | 15% | 24% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 54% | 44% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 32% | 32% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 41% | 41% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 56% | 44% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 76% | 61% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 27% | 29% |
Recent Venue Form
Progreso (H)W
Juventud2–0
Juventud2–0W
Racing Montevideo2–1
Racing Montevideo2–1L
Club Nacional0–1
Club Nacional0–1L
Cerro1–3
Cerro1–3W
Danubio1–0
Danubio1–0L
CA River Plate0–2
CA River Plate0–2Defensor Sporting (A)L
Boston River0–1
Boston River0–1L
Albion FC2–3
Albion FC2–3LClub Nacional2–3
Club Nacional2–3D
Cerro Largo1–1
Cerro Largo1–1D
Central Espanol1–1
Central Espanol1–1DCerro Largo1–1
Cerro Largo1–1Number of Corners
9.0
Corners / Match
3 games
League Avg
8.6
29 games
7.2
Corners / Match
5 games
| Match Corners | Progreso | Defensor Sporting | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 67% | 40% | 72% |
| Over 7 | 33% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 8 | 33% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 9 | 33% | 40% | 24% |
| Over 10 | 33% | 20% | 21% |
| Over 11 | 33% | 0% | 14% |
| Over 12 | 33% | 0% | 14% |
| Over 13 | 33% | 0% | 10% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Progreso | Defensor Sporting |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 3.3 | 4.4 |
| Corners Against / Match | 5.7 | 2.8 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 67% | 80% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 67% | 40% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 0% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 100% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 67% | 20% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 33% | 20% |
Head to Head · 18 matches
4
Progreso
22%
6
Draws
33%
8
Defensor Sporting
44%
78%
Over 1.5
14/18
61%
Over 2.5
11/18
39%
Over 3.5
7/18
67%
BTTS
12/18
27/04/26Progreso
Defensor Sporting
1–0Progreso12/01/26Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0–0Progreso19/10/25Defensor Sporting
Progreso
2–3Defensor Sporting20/04/25Progreso
Defensor Sporting
1–2Progreso14/11/24Progreso
Defensor Sporting
3–0Progreso15/06/24Progreso
Defensor Sporting
1–1Progreso12/05/24Defensor Sporting
Progreso
1–4Defensor Sporting03/11/22Progreso
Defensor Sporting
3–1Progreso26/10/22Defensor Sporting
Progreso
1–1Defensor Sporting11/02/21Defensor Sporting
Progreso
3–3Defensor Sporting19/08/20Progreso
Defensor Sporting
2–1Progreso05/12/19Progreso
Defensor Sporting
2–4Progreso18/08/19Defensor Sporting
Progreso
3–1Defensor Sporting01/06/19Defensor Sporting
Progreso
0–3Defensor Sporting02/09/18Defensor Sporting
Progreso
0–0Defensor Sporting17/03/18Progreso
Defensor Sporting
1–1Progreso17/03/13Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0–1Progreso23/09/12Defensor Sporting
Progreso
1–4Defensor Sporting| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 71 | 43 | 14 | 14 | +56 | 143 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 70 | 42 | 14 | 14 | +54 | 137 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | +21 | 59 |
| 4 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 70 | 32 | 22 | 16 | +27 | 118 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 71 | 29 | 23 | 19 | +13 | 110 |
| 6 |  Atletico Torque | 70 | 30 | 16 | 24 | +18 | 106 |
| 7 | Juventud | 71 | 28 | 18 | 25 | +2 | 102 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 71 | 26 | 19 | 26 | -6 | 97 |
| 8 | Albion FC | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | +3 | 46 |
| 10 | Boston River | 70 | 24 | 20 | 26 | +1 | 92 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 70 | 20 | 23 | 27 | -8 | 83 |
| 12 | Cerro | 70 | 22 | 18 | 30 | -30 | 83 |
| 13 |  Wanderers | 70 | 20 | 21 | 29 | -23 | 81 |
| 14 | Central Espanol | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -14 | 38 |
| 15 | Danubio | 70 | 16 | 27 | 27 | -14 | 75 |
| 16 | Progreso | 70 | 19 | 14 | 37 | -39 | 71 |
Team Insights
Progreso- ●Progreso have scored in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Progreso have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Progreso have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Progreso have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Progreso failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Progreso have lost 9 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Progreso failed to keep a clean sheet in 15 of their 17 away matches.
Defensor Sporting- ●Defensor Sporting have failed to win in their last 4 matches.
- ●Defensor Sporting have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Defensor Sporting have lost their last 3 away matches.
- ●Defensor Sporting failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Defensor Sporting failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 18 home matches.
- ●Defensor Sporting failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 16 away matches.
Season Schedule
ProgresoWHJuventud2–0
Juventud2–0DAPenarol1–1
Penarol1–1LALiverpool Montevideo2–3
Liverpool Montevideo2–3WHRacing Montevideo2–1
Racing Montevideo2–1WABoston River2–1
Boston River2–1LHCerro1–3
Cerro1–3–AWanderers25/10
Wanderers25/10–HDefensor Sporting01/11
Defensor Sporting01/11Defensor SportingDHRacing Montevideo3–3
Racing Montevideo3–3LABoston River0–1
Boston River0–1LHCerro2–3
Cerro2–3LAAlbion FC2–3
Albion FC2–3WHDanubio1–0
Danubio1–0LAClub Nacional2–3
Club Nacional2–3–AProgreso01/11
Progreso01/11Top Scorers
ProgresoN. Lopez7 ⚽
nahuel lopez3 ⚽
F. De Leon3 ⚽
D. Sanchez3 ⚽
G. Silva2 ⚽
J. Dos Santos2 ⚽
Defensor SportingB. Montenegro7 ⚽
A. Machado3 ⚽
N. Wunsch3 ⚽
L. Agazzi3 ⚽
L. Navarro2 ⚽
F. Castro2 ⚽
Cards Given
ProgresoA. Cougo7 🟨
Mauro Martín6 🟨
Ayrton Cougo5 🟨
Agustin Pinheiro5 🟨
F. Andueza4 🟨
A. Ocampo4 🟨
Defensor SportingAxel Frugone7 🟨
Lucas Paul De los Santos5 🟨
Juan Pablo Goicochea5 🟨
Guillermo De los Santos5 🟨
M. Amaro5 🟨
A. Frugone4 🟨