Nebitci vs Ahal — Ýokary Liga
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Nebitci and Ahal meet in the Ýokary Liga 2026 season on 20 November 2026. Nebitci have recorded 7 wins from 24 matches this season (29% win rate), averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 38% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 46%; and clean sheets in 33% of games. Ahal have won 56% of their 25 matches, with 1.80 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 36%, Over 2.5 at 68%, and clean sheets at 48%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.34 for Nebitci and 1.95 for Ahal. The models give Nebitci a 25% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Ahal win at 51%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 64% and BTTS at 63%.
Season Statistics
Nebitci—
Ahal4º
Position
3º
1.09
PPG
1.91
30%
Win %
59%
0.96
Goals / game
2.27
1.70
Conceded / game
1.27
38%
BTTS %
36%
33%
Clean sheet %
48%
46%
Over 2.5 %
68%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Nebitci
Home (12)
—
Ahal
Away (10)
1.42
PPG
1.90
42%
Win %
60%
1.08
Goals / game
2.70
1.50
Conceded / game
1.20
33%
BTTS %
55%
42%
Clean sheet %
36%
50%
Over 2.5 %
82%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Nebitci | Home | Away | Ahal | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 63% | 67% | 58% | 72% | 64% | 82% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 29% | 42% | 17% | 48% | 43% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 8% | 17% | 0% | 40% | 29% | 55% |
| Failed To Score | 38% | 33% | 42% | 28% | 36% | 18% |
Goals Conceded
| Nebitci | Home | Away | Ahal | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 67% | 58% | 75% | 52% | 43% | 64% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 42% | 42% | 42% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 29% | 25% | 33% | 20% | 21% | 18% |
| Clean Sheets | 33% | 42% | 25% | 48% | 57% | 36% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Nebitci | Ahal | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 92% | 88% |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 72% |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 44% |
| Over 4.5 | 21% | 12% |
| BTTS | 38% | 36% |
| BTTS & Win | 4% | 20% |
| BTTS & Draw | 13% | 4% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 29% | 36% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 17% | 32% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Nebitci | Ahal | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 19% | 13% |
| Draw 1st Half | 57% | 65% |
| Loss 1st Half | 24% | 22% |
| Scored 1st Half | 29% | 26% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 33% | 30% |
| Win 2nd Half | 14% | 48% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 38% | 26% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 48% | 26% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 33% | 61% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 67% | 48% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 48% | 43% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 24% | 22% |
Recent Venue Form
Nebitci (H)W
Merw3–0
Merw3–0W
Şagadam3–0
Şagadam3–0L
Altyn Asyr2–4
Altyn Asyr2–4L
Arkadag2–4
Arkadag2–4D
Aşgabat1–1
Aşgabat1–1LAhal0–4
Ahal0–4Ahal (A)L
Al Ittihad1–5
Al Ittihad1–5WAşgabat4–3
Aşgabat4–3LŞagadam1–2
Şagadam1–2LArkadag1–2
Arkadag1–2WNebitci4–0
Nebitci4–0WMerw3–1
Merw3–1Head to Head · 24 matches
1
Nebitci
4%
2
Draws
8%
21
Ahal
88%
75%
Over 1.5
18/24
46%
Over 2.5
11/24
25%
Over 3.5
6/24
21%
BTTS
5/24
12/09/26Nebitci
Ahal
3–0Nebitci13/06/26Ahal
Nebitci
0–4Ahal02/05/26Nebitci
Ahal
1–0Nebitci07/12/25Ahal
Nebitci
0–3Ahal06/08/25Nebitci
Ahal
2–0Nebitci26/04/25Ahal
Nebitci
0–1Ahal04/03/25Nebitci
Ahal
2–0Nebitci26/11/24Nebitci
Ahal
2–0Nebitci18/09/24Ahal
Nebitci
0–2Ahal14/05/24Nebitci
Ahal
4–0Nebitci06/04/24Ahal
Nebitci
0–1Ahal02/11/23Nebitci
Ahal
2–2Nebitci26/08/23Nebitci
Ahal
2–0Nebitci17/05/23Ahal
Nebitci
1–0Ahal26/11/22Ahal
Nebitci
0–1Ahal19/10/22Nebitci
Ahal
5–1Nebitci03/09/22Ahal
Nebitci
1–4Ahal02/08/22Nebitci
Ahal
7–0Nebitci26/11/21Ahal
Nebitci
0–0Ahal25/10/21Nebitci
Ahal
2–0Nebitci| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0 | +89 | 75 |
| 2 | Altyn Asyr | 23 | 17 | 2 | 4 | +24 | 53 |
| 3 | Ahal | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | +22 | 42 |
| 4 | Nebitci | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -17 | 25 |
| 5 | Şagadam | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | -18 | 22 |
| 6 | Merw | 23 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -44 | 18 |
| 7 | Aşgabat | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 15 |
| 8 |  Köpetdag Aşgabat | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -31 | 14 |
Team Insights
Nebitci- ●Nebitci have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
- ●Nebitci have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Nebitci have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Nebitci have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Nebitci have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Nebitci have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their 12 home matches.
- ●Nebitci failed to keep a clean sheet in 9 of their 12 away matches.
- ●63% of Nebitci's goals have been scored at home.
Ahal- ●Ahal have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Ahal have scored in each of their last 8 away matches.
- ●Ahal have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Ahal have kept a clean sheet in 8 of their 12 home matches.
- ●Ahal have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their 10 away matches.
- ●Ahal have won 6 of their 10 away matches.
- ●Ahal have scored in 8 of their 10 away matches.
Season Schedule
NebitciDAAşgabat0–0
Aşgabat0–0WHMerw3–0
Merw3–0WHŞagadam3–0
Şagadam3–0LHAltyn Asyr2–4
Altyn Asyr2–4LAAhal0–3
Ahal0–3LHArkadag2–4
Arkadag2–4–HKöpetdag Aşgabat31/10
Köpetdag Aşgabat31/10–AArkadag08/11
Arkadag08/11–HAhal20/11
Ahal20/11AhalLHAltyn Asyr0–2
Altyn Asyr0–2LHArkadag0–4
Arkadag0–4WAAşgabat4–3
Aşgabat4–3WHNebitci3–0
Nebitci3–0LAŞagadam1–2
Şagadam1–2WHMerw4–0
Merw4–0–AAltyn Asyr01/11
Altyn Asyr01/11–HŞagadam07/11
Şagadam07/11–AMerw11/11
Merw11/11Top Scorers
NebitciAhalY. Govshudov2 ⚽
A. Jumadurdyyew1 ⚽
B. Mamiyew1 ⚽
E. Annayev1 ⚽
Cards Given
NebitciAhalH. Bashimov1 🟨
Y. Garajayev1 🟨