Ahal vs Şagadam — Ýokary Liga
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Ahal and Şagadam meet in the Ýokary Liga 2026 season on 7 November 2026. Ahal have recorded 14 wins from 25 matches this season (56% win rate), averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 36% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 68%; and clean sheets in 48% of games. Şagadam have won 22% of their 23 matches, with 0.74 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 35%, Over 2.5 at 35%, and clean sheets at 22%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.70 for Ahal and 1.03 for Şagadam. The models give Ahal a 59% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Şagadam win at 17%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 51% and BTTS at 52%.
Season Statistics
Ahal
ŞagadamHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| Ahal | Home | Away | Şagadam | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 72% | 64% | 82% | 43% | 67% | 18% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 48% | 43% | 55% | 22% | 25% | 18% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 40% | 29% | 55% | 9% | 8% | 9% |
| Failed To Score | 28% | 36% | 18% | 57% | 33% | 82% |
Goals Conceded
| Ahal | Home | Away | Şagadam | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 52% | 43% | 64% | 78% | 83% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 36% | 36% | 36% | 52% | 58% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 20% | 21% | 18% | 22% | 25% | 18% |
| Clean Sheets | 48% | 57% | 36% | 22% | 17% | 27% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Ahal | Şagadam | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 88% | 87% |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 74% |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 35% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 22% |
| Over 4.5 | 12% | 13% |
| BTTS | 36% | 35% |
| BTTS & Win | 20% | 13% |
| BTTS & Draw | 4% | 9% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 36% | 26% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 32% | 9% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Ahal | Şagadam | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 13% | 10% |
| Draw 1st Half | 65% | 67% |
| Loss 1st Half | 22% | 24% |
| Scored 1st Half | 26% | 14% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 30% | 33% |
| Win 2nd Half | 48% | 14% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 26% | 33% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 26% | 52% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 61% | 33% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 48% | 67% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 43% | 38% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 22% | 14% |
Recent Venue Form
Ahal (H)
Al Ansar2–1
Paro2–2
Altyn Asyr0–2
Arkadag0–4
Nebitci3–0
Merw4–0Şagadam (A)
Köpetdag Aşgabat0–0Nebitci0–3Altyn Asyr0–2
Aşgabat0–1Merw0–2Ahal0–1Head to Head · 24 matches
AhalŞagadamAhalŞagadamAhalŞagadamAhalAhalŞagadamAhalŞagadamAhalŞagadamAhalAhalŞagadamAhalŞagadamAhalŞagadam| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0 | +89 | 75 |
| 2 | Altyn Asyr | 23 | 17 | 2 | 4 | +24 | 53 |
| 3 | Ahal | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | +22 | 42 |
| 4 | Nebitci | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -17 | 25 |
| 5 | Şagadam | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | -18 | 22 |
| 6 | Merw | 23 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -44 | 18 |
| 7 | Aşgabat | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 15 |
| 8 | Köpetdag Aşgabat | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -31 | 14 |
Team Insights
Ahal- ●Ahal have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Ahal have scored in each of their last 8 away matches.
- ●Ahal have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Ahal have kept a clean sheet in 8 of their 12 home matches.
- ●Ahal have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their 10 away matches.
- ●Ahal have won 6 of their 10 away matches.
- ●Ahal have scored in 8 of their 10 away matches.
Şagadam- ●Şagadam have failed to win in their last 4 matches.
- ●Şagadam failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 10 home matches.
- ●Şagadam failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 12 home matches.
- ●Şagadam have lost 6 of their 12 home matches.
- ●Şagadam failed to keep a clean sheet in 8 of their 11 away matches.
- ●Şagadam have lost 7 of their 11 away matches.
- ●71% of Şagadam's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
AhalAltyn Asyr0–2Arkadag0–4Aşgabat4–3Nebitci3–0Şagadam1–2Merw4–0Altyn Asyr01/11Şagadam07/11Merw11/11ŞagadamKöpetdag Aşgabat0–0Nebitci0–3Merw0–2Altyn Asyr0–2Ahal2–1Arkadag0–3Ahal07/11Altyn Asyr20/11Merw29/11Top Scorers
AhalŞagadamCards Given
AhalŞagadam