Merw vs Ahal — Ýokary Liga
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Merw and Ahal meet in the Ýokary Liga 2026 season on 11 November 2026. Merw have recorded 6 wins from 22 matches this season (27% win rate), averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.64 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 45% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 64%; and clean sheets in 14% of games. Ahal have won 56% of their 25 matches, with 1.80 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 36%, Over 2.5 at 68%, and clean sheets at 48%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.44 for Merw and 2.31 for Ahal. The models give Merw a 20% win probability, with a draw at 21% and an Ahal win at 59%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 72% and BTTS at 68%.
Season Statistics
Merw
AhalHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| Merw | Home | Away | Ahal | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 55% | 64% | 45% | 72% | 64% | 82% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 32% | 55% | 9% | 48% | 43% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 9% | 18% | 0% | 40% | 29% | 55% |
| Failed To Score | 45% | 36% | 55% | 28% | 36% | 18% |
Goals Conceded
| Merw | Home | Away | Ahal | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 86% | 91% | 82% | 52% | 43% | 64% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 64% | 55% | 73% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 36% | 27% | 45% | 20% | 21% | 18% |
| Clean Sheets | 14% | 9% | 18% | 48% | 57% | 36% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Merw | Ahal | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95% | 88% |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 72% |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 44% |
| Over 4.5 | 32% | 12% |
| BTTS | 45% | 36% |
| BTTS & Win | 18% | 20% |
| BTTS & Draw | 9% | 4% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 41% | 36% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 23% | 32% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Merw | Ahal | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 24% | 13% |
| Draw 1st Half | 59% | 65% |
| Loss 1st Half | 18% | 22% |
| Scored 1st Half | 24% | 26% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 24% | 30% |
| Win 2nd Half | 18% | 48% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 35% | 26% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 47% | 26% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 59% | 61% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 71% | 48% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 41% | 43% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 24% | 22% |
Recent Venue Form
Merw (H)
Arkadag0–5
Köpetdag Aşgabat2–2
Aşgabat3–2
Nebitci0–1
Şagadam2–0
Altyn Asyr0–2Ahal (A)
Al Ittihad1–5Aşgabat4–3Şagadam1–2Arkadag1–2Nebitci4–0Merw3–1Head to Head · 25 matches
MerwAhalMerwAhalMerwMerwAhalMerwAhalMerwMerwAhalAhalMerwAhalAhalMerwAhalMerwMerw| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0 | +89 | 75 |
| 2 | Altyn Asyr | 23 | 17 | 2 | 4 | +24 | 53 |
| 3 | Ahal | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | +22 | 42 |
| 4 | Nebitci | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -17 | 25 |
| 5 | Şagadam | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | -18 | 22 |
| 6 | Merw | 23 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -44 | 18 |
| 7 | Aşgabat | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 15 |
| 8 | Köpetdag Aşgabat | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -31 | 14 |
Team Insights
Merw- ●Merw failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 11 home matches.
- ●Merw failed to keep a clean sheet in 9 of their 11 away matches.
- ●Merw have lost 8 of their 11 away matches.
- ●73% of Merw's goals have been scored at home.
- ●76% of Merw's points have been earned at home.
Ahal- ●Ahal have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Ahal have scored in each of their last 8 away matches.
- ●Ahal have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Ahal have kept a clean sheet in 8 of their 12 home matches.
- ●Ahal have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their 10 away matches.
- ●Ahal have won 6 of their 10 away matches.
- ●Ahal have scored in 8 of their 10 away matches.
Season Schedule
MerwNebitci0–3Arkadag0–5Şagadam2–0Köpetdag Aşgabat2–2Aşgabat3–2Ahal0–4Altyn Asyr21/10Aşgabat01/11Altyn Asyr07/11AhalAltyn Asyr0–2Arkadag0–4Aşgabat4–3Nebitci3–0Şagadam1–2Merw4–0Altyn Asyr01/11Şagadam07/11Merw11/11Top Scorers
MerwAhalCards Given
MerwAhal