Libertad vs Emelec — Liga Pro
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Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne·Loja·Ecuador·15,281
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Libertad and Emelec meet in the Liga Pro 2026 season on 8 November 2026. Libertad have recorded 14 wins from 35 matches this season (40% win rate), averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 46% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 51%; and clean sheets in 34% of games. Emelec have won 33% of their 33 matches, with 0.94 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 45%, Over 2.5 at 27%, and clean sheets at 30%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.44 for Libertad and 0.80 for Emelec. The models give Libertad a 53% win probability, with a draw at 27% and an Emelec win at 20%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 39% and BTTS at 42%.
Season Statistics
Libertad—
Emelec7º
Position
11º
1.37
PPG
1.30
37%
Win %
33%
1.10
Goals / game
0.83
1.13
Conceded / game
1.13
46%
BTTS %
45%
34%
Clean sheet %
30%
51%
Over 2.5 %
27%
4.0
Avg corners
4.7
11.8
Avg shots
12.0
4.1
Avg shots on target
3.7
2.2
Avg yellow cards
2.1
11.6
Avg fouls
10.9
45.2%
Avg possession
47.9%
Home vs Away
Libertad
Home (15)
—
Emelec
Away (15)
1.80
PPG
0.73
53%
Win %
13%
1.33
Goals / game
0.53
1.00
Conceded / game
1.40
41%
BTTS %
41%
47%
Clean sheet %
24%
53%
Over 2.5 %
24%
4.0
Avg corners
4.7
11.8
Avg shots
12.0
4.1
Avg shots on target
3.7
2.2
Avg yellow cards
2.1
45.2%
Avg possession
47.9%
Goals Scored
| Libertad | Home | Away | Emelec | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 71% | 82% | 61% | 65% | 76% | 53% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 34% | 47% | 22% | 24% | 29% | 18% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 14% | 24% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 6% |
| Failed To Score | 29% | 18% | 39% | 35% | 24% | 47% |
Goals Conceded
| Libertad | Home | Away | Emelec | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 66% | 53% | 78% | 71% | 65% | 76% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 37% | 24% | 50% | 32% | 24% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 14% | 12% | 17% | 9% | 6% | 12% |
| Clean Sheets | 34% | 47% | 22% | 29% | 35% | 24% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Libertad | Emelec | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 91% | 91% |
| Over 1.5 | 66% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 26% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 12% |
| Over 4.5 | 11% | 6% |
| BTTS | 46% | 44% |
| BTTS & Win | 14% | 12% |
| BTTS & Draw | 14% | 18% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 37% | 26% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 14% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Libertad | Emelec | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 26% | 21% |
| Draw 1st Half | 46% | 53% |
| Loss 1st Half | 29% | 26% |
| Scored 1st Half | 43% | 32% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 37% | 38% |
| Win 2nd Half | 34% | 29% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 34% | 32% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 31% | 38% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 49% | 41% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 49% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 63% | 59% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 26% | 29% |
Recent Venue Form
Libertad (H)W
Guayaquil City FC4–0
Guayaquil City FC4–0W
Leones del Norte3–0
Leones del Norte3–0L
Independiente del Valle2–3
Independiente del Valle2–3DEmelec1–1
Emelec1–1W
Macara1–0
Macara1–0W
Universidad Catolica2–1
Universidad Catolica2–1Emelec (A)WLeones del Norte3–1
Leones del Norte3–1LGuayaquil City FC2–3
Guayaquil City FC2–3LMacara0–1
Macara0–1DLibertad1–1
Libertad1–1L
LDU de Quito0–2
LDU de Quito0–2DGuayaquil City FC0–0
Guayaquil City FC0–0Number of Corners
9.7
Corners / Match
32 games
League Avg
9.3
252 games
10.0
Corners / Match
31 games
| Match Corners | Libertad | Emelec | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 91% | 87% | 86% |
| Over 7 | 81% | 74% | 75% |
| Over 8 | 69% | 58% | 58% |
| Over 9 | 47% | 45% | 42% |
| Over 10 | 31% | 42% | 30% |
| Over 11 | 19% | 35% | 19% |
| Over 12 | 16% | 26% | 12% |
| Over 13 | 13% | 16% | 8% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Libertad | Emelec |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.0 | 4.7 |
| Corners Against / Match | 5.7 | 5.3 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 69% | 84% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 59% | 68% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 41% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 91% | 84% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 78% | 77% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 59% | 58% |
Head to Head · 9 matches
2
Libertad
22%
5
Draws
56%
2
Emelec
22%
78%
Over 1.5
7/9
33%
Over 2.5
3/9
0%
Over 3.5
0/9
67%
BTTS
6/9
20/09/26Libertad
Emelec
1–2Libertad04/09/26Emelec
Libertad
1–1Emelec10/05/26Libertad
Emelec
1–1Libertad03/08/25Emelec
Libertad
1–2Emelec12/04/25Libertad
Emelec
1–1Libertad30/11/24Emelec
Libertad
2–1Emelec01/06/24Libertad
Emelec
0–0Libertad05/08/23Emelec
Libertad
0–0Emelec27/02/23Libertad
Emelec
2–0Libertad| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 33 | 25 | 3 | 5 | +40 | 78 |
| 2 | Macara | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | +11 | 60 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | +22 | 53 |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | +9 | 53 |
| 5 |  Aucas | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | +3 | 51 |
| 6 |  Barcelona SC | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | +6 | 45 |
| 7 | Libertad | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | +7 | 50 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 43 |
| 9 | Emelec | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -9 | 42 |
| 10 | Leones del Norte | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | -6 | 40 |
| 11 |  Deportivo Cuenca | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | -9 | 44 |
| 12 |  Mushuc Runa SC | 33 | 9 | 13 | 11 | -4 | 40 |
| 13 |  Orense SC | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 38 |
| 14 |  Delfin SC | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | -13 | 35 |
| 15 |  Tecnico Universitario | 33 | 10 | 3 | 20 | -16 | 33 |
| 16 |  Manta FC | 34 | 7 | 6 | 21 | -27 | 27 |
Team Insights
Libertad- ●Libertad have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Libertad have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Libertad have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Libertad have scored in each of their last 10 home matches.
- ●Libertad have kept a clean sheet in 8 of their 17 home matches.
- ●Libertad failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their 17 away matches.
- ●63% of Libertad's goals have been scored at home.
Emelec- ●Emelec failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Emelec failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Emelec failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their 17 away matches.
Season Schedule
LibertadLALeones del Norte1–4
Leones del Norte1–4WHGuayaquil City FC4–0
Guayaquil City FC4–0WHLeones del Norte3–0
Leones del Norte3–0WAEmelec2–1
Emelec2–1LHIndependiente del Valle2–3
Independiente del Valle2–3WADeportivo Cuenca1–0
Deportivo Cuenca1–0–AGuayaquil City FC01/11
Guayaquil City FC01/11–HEmelec08/11
Emelec08/11EmelecLHGuayaquil City FC0–1
Guayaquil City FC0–1WALeones del Norte3–1
Leones del Norte3–1LAGuayaquil City FC2–3
Guayaquil City FC2–3LHLibertad1–2
Libertad1–2LAMacara0–1
Macara0–1WHManta FC1–0
Manta FC1–0–HLeones del Norte01/11
Leones del Norte01/11–ALibertad08/11
Libertad08/11Top Scorers
LibertadV. Branda8 ⚽
Vilinton German Branda Merlin5 ⚽
A. Chere5 ⚽
G. J. Cortez Casierra4 ⚽
I. Zambrano3 ⚽
E. Caicedo2 ⚽
EmelecL. Klimowicz7 ⚽
J. Ruiz4 ⚽
Ronie Carrillo3 ⚽
R. Caicedo2 ⚽
I. Guerrico2 ⚽
A. Leguizamon2 ⚽
Cards Given
LibertadBryan Caicedo9 🟨
Jackson Rodríguez7 🟨
Gabriel Cortez4 🟨
B. Caicedo4 🟨
Cristhian Valencia4 🟨
G. J. Cortez Casierra4 🟨
EmelecAníbal Leguizamón7 🟨
Ignacio Guerrico7 🟨
Víctor Griffith6 🟨
Angelo Mina5 🟨
A. Leguizamon5 🟨
Stalin Valencia4 🟨