Al-Gharafa vs Al-Nassr — AFC Champions League Elite
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Al-Gharafa and Al-Nassr meet in the AFC Champions League Elite 2026 season on 8 December 2026. Al-Gharafa have recorded 6 wins from 20 matches this season (30% win rate), averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 70% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 70%; and clean sheets in 25% of games. Al-Nassr have won 64% of their 22 matches, with 2.32 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 64%, Over 2.5 at 82%, and clean sheets at 27%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.79 for Al-Gharafa and 2.20 for Al-Nassr. The models give Al-Gharafa a 30% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Al-Nassr win at 47%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 75% and BTTS at 73%.
Season Statistics
Al-Gharafa—
Al-Nassr16º
Position
7º
0.00
PPG
2.00
0%
Win %
67%
0.75
Goals / game
3.00
2.75
Conceded / game
2.33
70%
BTTS %
64%
25%
Clean sheet %
27%
70%
Over 2.5 %
82%
5.0
Avg corners
7.4
14.7
Avg shots
15.7
4.6
Avg shots on target
5.9
2.4
Avg yellow cards
1.5
11.7
Avg fouls
12.1
44.5%
Avg possession
55.1%
Home vs Away
Al-Gharafa
Home (2)
—
Al-Nassr
Away (2)
0.00
PPG
1.50
0%
Win %
50%
0.50
Goals / game
3.00
3.50
Conceded / game
3.00
62%
BTTS %
64%
31%
Clean sheet %
27%
62%
Over 2.5 %
82%
5.0
Avg corners
7.4
14.7
Avg shots
15.7
4.6
Avg shots on target
5.9
2.4
Avg yellow cards
1.5
44.5%
Avg possession
55.1%
Goals Scored
| Al-Gharafa | Home | Away | Al-Nassr | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 80% | 77% | 86% | 91% | 91% | 91% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 45% | 54% | 29% | 68% | 73% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 10% | 15% | 0% | 41% | 36% | 45% |
| Failed To Score | 20% | 23% | 14% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
Goals Conceded
| Al-Gharafa | Home | Away | Al-Nassr | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 75% | 69% | 86% | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 55% | 38% | 86% | 45% | 36% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 20% | 15% | 29% | 14% | 9% | 18% |
| Clean Sheets | 25% | 31% | 14% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Al-Gharafa | Al-Nassr | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 85% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 95% |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 82% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 45% |
| Over 4.5 | 25% | 18% |
| BTTS | 70% | 64% |
| BTTS & Win | 20% | 36% |
| BTTS & Draw | 15% | 9% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 65% | 59% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 5% | 23% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Al-Gharafa | Al-Nassr | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 25% | 43% |
| Draw 1st Half | 45% | 29% |
| Loss 1st Half | 30% | 29% |
| Scored 1st Half | 40% | 71% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 50% | 52% |
| Win 2nd Half | 20% | 62% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 45% | 24% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 35% | 14% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 60% | 81% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 65% | 43% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 70% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 50% | 57% |
Recent Venue Form
Al-Gharafa (H)L
Al-Qadisiyah FC0–5
Al-Qadisiyah FC0–5W
Qatar SC2–0
Qatar SC2–0D
Al Ahli Doha2–2
Al Ahli Doha2–2D
Al-Rayyan SC0–0
Al-Rayyan SC0–0L
Esteghlal FC1–2
Esteghlal FC1–2W
Al Mesaimeer4–2
Al Mesaimeer4–2Al-Nassr (A)W
Pakhtakor6–2
Pakhtakor6–2W
Al-Faisaly FC3–1
Al-Faisaly FC3–1L
Al Ain0–4
Al Ain0–4D
Al Khaleej Saihat1–1
Al Khaleej Saihat1–1L
Al-Ittihad FC1–2
Al-Ittihad FC1–2W
Al-Ettifaq3–2
Al-Ettifaq3–2Number of Corners
10.8
Corners / Match
11 games
League Avg
9.0
58 games
10.9
Corners / Match
14 games
| Match Corners | Al-Gharafa | Al-Nassr | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 82% | 79% | 76% |
| Over 7 | 82% | 79% | 59% |
| Over 8 | 64% | 71% | 55% |
| Over 9 | 55% | 71% | 43% |
| Over 10 | 45% | 50% | 40% |
| Over 11 | 36% | 50% | 28% |
| Over 12 | 27% | 29% | 14% |
| Over 13 | 27% | 29% | 9% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Al-Gharafa | Al-Nassr |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.0 | 7.4 |
| Corners Against / Match | 5.8 | 3.5 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 82% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 64% | 93% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 55% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 91% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 64% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 45% | 29% |
Head to Head · 1 matches
0
Al-Gharafa
0%
0
Draws
0%
1
Al-Nassr
100%
100%
Over 1.5
1/1
100%
Over 2.5
1/1
100%
Over 3.5
1/1
100%
BTTS
1/1
25/11/24Al-Nassr
Al-Gharafa
1–3Al-Nassr| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 12 |
| 1 |  Vissel Kobe | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Kashima | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 9 |
| 2 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 3 | Esteghlal FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 3 |  Gamba Osaka | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 4 |  Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 4 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +6 | 8 |
| 5 |  SHANGHAI SIPG | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 |  Al-Ahli Jeddah | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 |  Kyoto Sanga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 7 |  Johor Darul Takzim FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 7 | Al-Nassr | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 |  Jeonbuk Motors | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |  Al Shamal | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 |  Beijing Guoan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 |  Neftchi | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 10 | Al-Ittihad FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 |  Daejeon Citizen | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 11 |  Công An Nhân Dân | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 |  Al-Wasl FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 |  Port FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 12 |  Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 |  Buriram United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 |  Tractor Sazi | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 14 | Pakhtakor | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 14 |  Ratchaburi | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 15 |  Al Sadd | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 15 |  Pohang Steelers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 16 |  Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 0 |
| 16 | Al-Gharafa | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
Team Insights
Al-Gharafa- ●Al-Gharafa have failed to win in their last 4 matches.
- ●Al-Gharafa have lost their last 4 matches.
- ●Al-Gharafa have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Al-Gharafa have lost their last 2 away matches.
Al-Nassr- ●Al-Nassr have won their last 2 matches.
- ●67% of Al-Nassr's goals have been scored away.
Season Schedule
Al-GharafaLHAl-Qadisiyah FC0–5
Al-Qadisiyah FC0–5LAAl-Ahli Jeddah1–2
Al-Ahli Jeddah1–2LHEsteghlal FC1–2
Esteghlal FC1–2LAAl-Hilal Saudi FC1–2
Al-Hilal Saudi FC1–2–AAl Quwa Al Jawiya23/11
Al Quwa Al Jawiya23/11–HAl-Nassr08/12
Al-Nassr08/12–AAl-Ittihad FC08/02
Al-Ittihad FC08/02Al-NassrWAPakhtakor6–2
Pakhtakor6–2WHNeftchi3–1
Neftchi3–1LAAl Ain0–4
Al Ain0–4–HAl Sadd24/11
Al Sadd24/11–AAl-Gharafa08/12
Al-Gharafa08/12–HAl Shamal08/02
Al Shamal08/02Top Scorers
Al-GharafaY. Brahimi7 ⚽
Yacine Brahimi5 ⚽
Frank Magri2 ⚽
F. Sassi2 ⚽
F. Coman2 ⚽
Ferjani Sassi2 ⚽
Al-NassrCristiano Ronaldo7 ⚽
Joao Felix6 ⚽
Angelo Borges5 ⚽
Abdullah Al-Hamdan4 ⚽
Angelo3 ⚽
Samu Costa3 ⚽
Cards Given
Al-GharafaSeydou Sano6 🟨
Fabricio Díaz5 🟨
Ferjani Sassi5 🟨
D. Traore3 🟨
Saifeldeen Fadlalla3 🟨
F. Coman2 🟨
Al-NassrJoao Felix5 🟨
Samu Costa4 🟨
Saad Fahad Al Nasser2 🟨
Bento2 🟨
M. Simakan2 🟨
M. Brozovic2 🟨