Montevarchi Calcio vs Gavorrano — Serie D - Girone E
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Montevarchi Calcio and Gavorrano meet in the Serie D - Girone E 2026 season on 6 December 2026. Montevarchi Calcio have recorded 4 wins from 11 matches this season (36% win rate), averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 36% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 45%; and clean sheets in 36% of games. Gavorrano have won 50% of their 10 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 70%, Over 2.5 at 20%, and clean sheets at 30%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.39 for Montevarchi Calcio and 0.95 for Gavorrano. The models give Montevarchi Calcio a 44% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an Gavorrano win at 27%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 41% and BTTS at 46%.
Season Statistics
Montevarchi Calcio—
Gavorrano12º
Position
2º
1.30
PPG
2.00
40%
Win %
50%
1.30
Goals / game
1.50
1.30
Conceded / game
0.80
36%
BTTS %
70%
36%
Clean sheet %
30%
45%
Over 2.5 %
20%
Home vs Away
Montevarchi Calcio
Home (4)
—
Gavorrano
Away (4)
2.25
PPG
1.50
75%
Win %
25%
1.75
Goals / game
1.25
0.50
Conceded / game
0.75
20%
BTTS %
75%
60%
Clean sheet %
25%
20%
Over 2.5 %
0%
Goals Scored
| Montevarchi Calcio | Home | Away | Gavorrano | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 64% | 60% | 67% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 27% | 40% | 17% | 40% | 50% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 18% | 20% | 17% | 10% | 17% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 36% | 40% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Montevarchi Calcio | Home | Away | Gavorrano | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 64% | 40% | 83% | 70% | 67% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 27% | 0% | 50% | 10% | 17% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 18% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 36% | 60% | 17% | 30% | 33% | 25% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Montevarchi Calcio | Gavorrano | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 91% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 90% |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 20% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 10% |
| Over 4.5 | 18% | 10% |
| BTTS | 36% | 70% |
| BTTS & Win | 9% | 20% |
| BTTS & Draw | 9% | 50% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 27% | 20% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 18% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Montevarchi Calcio | Gavorrano | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 45% | 40% |
| Draw 1st Half | 45% | 50% |
| Loss 1st Half | 9% | 10% |
| Scored 1st Half | 55% | 50% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 18% | 30% |
| Win 2nd Half | 27% | 40% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 18% | 50% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 55% | 10% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 27% | 80% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 55% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 55% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 18% | 20% |
Recent Venue Form
Montevarchi Calcio (H)W
Grassina1–0
Grassina1–0L
Rondinella0–1
Rondinella0–1W
Progresso2–0
Progresso2–0W
Tau Altopascio4–1
Tau Altopascio4–1D
Figline0–0
Figline0–0W
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano1–0
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano1–0Gavorrano (A)D
Seravezza1–1
Seravezza1–1D
Flaminia1–1
Flaminia1–1W
San Donato Tavarnelle2–0
San Donato Tavarnelle2–0D
Ternana1–1
Ternana1–1W
Scandicci3–1
Scandicci3–1D
Sporting Trestina1–1
Sporting Trestina1–1Head to Head · 9 matches
2
Montevarchi Calcio
22%
6
Draws
67%
1
Gavorrano
11%
56%
Over 1.5
5/9
0%
Over 2.5
0/9
0%
Over 3.5
0/9
56%
BTTS
5/9
22/03/26Montevarchi Calcio
Gavorrano
0–0Montevarchi Calcio09/11/25Gavorrano
Montevarchi Calcio
0–1Gavorrano23/03/25Montevarchi Calcio
Gavorrano
1–1Montevarchi Calcio10/11/24Gavorrano
Montevarchi Calcio
1–0Gavorrano28/01/24Gavorrano
Montevarchi Calcio
1–1Gavorrano01/10/23Montevarchi Calcio
Gavorrano
1–1Montevarchi Calcio06/08/23Montevarchi Calcio
Gavorrano
1–1Montevarchi Calcio01/03/20Gavorrano
Montevarchi Calcio
1–0Gavorrano27/10/19Montevarchi Calcio
Gavorrano
1–1Montevarchi Calcio| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Prato | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | Gavorrano | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | +7 | 20 |
| 3 |  Robur Siena | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Ternana | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +9 | 18 |
| 5 |  Terranuova Traiana | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | +4 | 16 |
| 6 | Flaminia | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 16 |
| 7 | Tau Altopascio | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 16 |
| 8 | Seravezza | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 15 |
| 9 | Scandicci | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lucchese | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Montevarchi Calcio | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 |  Sasso Marconi Zola | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Rondinella | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 |  Mezzolara | 10 | 1 | 7 | 2 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Grassina | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 3 |
| 18 | Progresso | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 3 |
Team Insights
Montevarchi Calcio- ●Montevarchi Calcio failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Montevarchi Calcio have lost 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●85% of Montevarchi Calcio's goals conceded were conceded away.
Gavorrano- ●Gavorrano have been undefeated in their last 10 matches.
- ●Gavorrano failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Gavorrano have scored in each of their last 10 matches.
- ●Gavorrano have been undefeated in their last 6 home matches.
- ●Gavorrano have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Gavorrano have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
- ●Gavorrano have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Gavorrano failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Gavorrano have scored in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●67% of Gavorrano's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
Montevarchi CalcioLASan Donato Tavarnelle0–1
San Donato Tavarnelle0–1WHGrassina1–0
Grassina1–0WAGhivizzano Borgo Mozzano3–0
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano3–0LHRondinella0–1
Rondinella0–1LATernana1–4
Ternana1–4WHProgresso2–0
Progresso2–0–HSasso Marconi Zola08/11
Sasso Marconi Zola08/11–AFlaminia15/11
Flaminia15/11–HTerranuova Traiana22/11
Terranuova Traiana22/11GavorranoWHScandicci3–2
Scandicci3–2DASeravezza1–1
Seravezza1–1DHPrato1–1
Prato1–1DHTerranuova Traiana1–1
Terranuova Traiana1–1DAFlaminia1–1
Flaminia1–1WHSasso Marconi Zola2–1
Sasso Marconi Zola2–1–AMezzolara08/11
Mezzolara08/11–HLucchese15/11
Lucchese15/11–ATau Altopascio22/11
Tau Altopascio22/11Top Scorers
Montevarchi CalcioT. Bocci3 ⚽
D. Accursi2 ⚽
L. Francalanci2 ⚽
F. Mattei1 ⚽
1 ⚽
L. Manfredi1 ⚽
GavorranoA. Pino6 ⚽
C. Mutton1 ⚽
E. Biancon1 ⚽
F. Presta1 ⚽
F. Vari1 ⚽
G. Aprile1 ⚽
Cards Given
Montevarchi CalcioL. Francalanci1 🟨
Gavorrano