Pavia vs Città di Varese — Serie D - Girone D
← Back
Unlock all Match Predictions
Full mathematical models, value detection and advanced filters across every league.
Billed Annually · Cancel Anytime
Pavia and Città di Varese meet in the Serie D - Girone D 2026 season on 29 November 2026. Pavia have recorded 2 wins from 12 matches this season (17% win rate), averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 50%; and clean sheets in 33% of games. Città di Varese have won 31% of their 13 matches, with 1.54 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 54%, Over 2.5 at 46%, and clean sheets at 31%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.30 for Pavia and 1.30 for Città di Varese. The models give Pavia a 39% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an Città di Varese win at 33%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 48% and BTTS at 53%.
Season Statistics
PaviaCittà di VareseHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| Pavia | Home | Away | Città di | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 58% | 63% | 50% | 69% | 67% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 17% | 25% | 0% | 46% | 50% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 8% | 13% | 0% | 23% | 17% | 29% |
| Failed To Score | 42% | 38% | 50% | 31% | 33% | 29% |
Goals Conceded
| Pavia | Home | Away | Città di | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 67% | 63% | 75% | 69% | 67% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 42% | 38% | 50% | 46% | 50% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 25% | 25% | 25% | 23% | 17% | 29% |
| Clean Sheets | 33% | 38% | 25% | 31% | 33% | 29% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Pavia | Città di | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 75% | 85% |
| Over 1.5 | 58% | 85% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 38% |
| Over 4.5 | 8% | 31% |
| BTTS | 50% | 54% |
| BTTS & Win | 8% | 15% |
| BTTS & Draw | 17% | 15% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 42% | 38% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 8% | 8% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Pavia | Città di | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 17% | 38% |
| Draw 1st Half | 50% | 38% |
| Loss 1st Half | 33% | 23% |
| Scored 1st Half | 33% | 54% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 50% | 31% |
| Win 2nd Half | 25% | 31% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 50% | 23% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 25% | 46% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 42% | 46% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 50% | 62% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 67% | 69% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 33% | 38% |
Recent Venue Form
Pavia (H)
Pro Patria1–0
USD Casatese3–1
Varesina2–2
Sant'Angelo1–3
Arconatese1–1
Solbiatese0–0Città di (A)Varesina1–3Arconatese5–1
Crema2–3
Pontedera3–0
Cittadella Vis Modena0–0
Coriano1–1| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pistoiese | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +19 | 27 |
| 2 |  Lentigione | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 | Pro Patria | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Castellanzese | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +9 | 19 |
| 5 | USD Casatese | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 |  Pro Sesto | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +10 | 15 |
| 7 | Pavia | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 8 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Solbiatese | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Sant'Angelo | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Città di Varese | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Correggese | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Crema | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 14 | Varesina | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Pontedera | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 7 |
| 16 | Coriano | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Arconatese | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -14 | 6 |
| 18 |  Oltrepò | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 5 |
Team Insights
Pavia- ●Pavia have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Pavia have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Pavia have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Pavia have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Pavia have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 6 home matches.
- ●88% of Pavia's goals have been scored at home.
- ●91% of Pavia's points have been earned at home.
Città di- ●Città di Varese have been undefeated in their last 3 home matches.
- ●Città di Varese have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Città di Varese have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Città di Varese have scored in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●80% of Città di Varese's goals have been scored away.
- ●73% of Città di Varese's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●62% of Città di Varese's points have been earned away.
- ●Città di Varese have scored 60% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
PaviaPro Patria1–0USD Casatese3–1Pistoiese0–1Varesina2–2Correggese1–2Arconatese1–1Cittadella Vis Modena08/11Pro Sesto15/11Castellanzese22/11Città diVaresina1–3Solbiatese0–0Arconatese5–1Oltrepò2–0Crema2–3Lentigione1–1Sant'Angelo08/11USD Casatese15/11Correggese22/11Top Scorers
PaviaCittà diCards Given
PaviaCittà di