Castellanzese vs Pavia — Serie D - Girone D
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Castellanzese and Pavia meet in the Serie D - Girone D 2026 season on 22 November 2026. Castellanzese have recorded 6 wins from 8 matches this season (75% win rate), averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 38% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 50%; and clean sheets in 38% of games. Pavia have won 9% of their 11 matches, with 0.82 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 55%, Over 2.5 at 55%, and clean sheets at 27%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.33 for Castellanzese and 0.98 for Pavia. The models give Castellanzese a 49% win probability, with a draw at 27% and an Pavia win at 24%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 40% and BTTS at 46%.
Season Statistics
CastellanzesePaviaHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| Castellanzese | Home | Away | Pavia | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 78% | 80% | 75% | 55% | 57% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 56% | 40% | 75% | 18% | 29% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 33% | 40% | 25% | 9% | 14% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 22% | 20% | 25% | 45% | 43% | 50% |
Goals Conceded
| Castellanzese | Home | Away | Pavia | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 67% | 60% | 75% | 73% | 71% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 0% | 0% | 0% | 45% | 43% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 0% | 0% | 0% | 27% | 29% | 25% |
| Clean Sheets | 33% | 40% | 25% | 27% | 29% | 25% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Castellanzese | Pavia | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 45% |
| Over 4.5 | 11% | 9% |
| BTTS | 44% | 55% |
| BTTS & Win | 33% | 9% |
| BTTS & Draw | 11% | 18% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 33% | 45% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 11% | 9% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Castellanzese | Pavia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 33% | 9% |
| Draw 1st Half | 44% | 55% |
| Loss 1st Half | 22% | 36% |
| Scored 1st Half | 56% | 27% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 44% | 55% |
| Win 2nd Half | 56% | 27% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 44% | 45% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 0% | 27% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 67% | 45% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 22% | 55% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 78% | 64% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 56% | 36% |
Recent Venue Form
Castellanzese (H)
Varesina1–1
Arconatese1–0
Crema4–0
Oltrepò0–1
Pontedera3–1Varesina1–2Pavia (A)
Pistoiese0–1
Correggese1–2
Sant'Angelo0–0
Pisa1–6
Breno1–0
Chievo1–2Head to Head · 2 matches
CastellanzesePavia| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +18 | 24 |
| 2 |  Pro Patria | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +8 | 19 |
| 3 | Castellanzese | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Lentigione | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 17 |
| 5 |  Pro Sesto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 |  USD Casatese | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 |  Città di Varese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +6 | 12 |
| 8 |  Cittadella Vis Modena | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Sant'Angelo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 |  Solbiatese | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Correggese | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Pavia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 13 | Crema | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Varesina | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Coriano | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Oltrepò | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Arconatese | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 3 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
Team Insights
Castellanzese- ●Castellanzese have been undefeated in their last 6 matches.
- ●Castellanzese have scored in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Castellanzese have been undefeated in their last 3 home matches.
- ●Castellanzese have won their last 3 away matches.
- ●Castellanzese have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
Pavia- ●Pavia failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Pavia have been undefeated in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Pavia have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●87% of Pavia's points have been earned at home.
Season Schedule
CastellanzeseVaresina1–1Correggese2–0Arconatese1–0Sant'Angelo2–1Crema4–0Solbiatese4–1Pistoiese01/11USD Casatese08/11Pro Patria15/11PaviaUSD Casatese3–1Pistoiese0–1Varesina2–2Correggese1–2Arconatese1–1Sant'Angelo0–0Pro Patria01/11Cittadella Vis Modena08/11Pro Sesto15/11Top Scorers
CastellanzesePaviaCards Given
CastellanzesePavia