Pavia vs Pro Patria — Serie D - Girone D
← Back
Unlock all Match Predictions
Full mathematical models, value detection and advanced filters across every league.
billed annually · cancel anytime
Pavia and Pro Patria meet in the Serie D - Girone D 2026 season on 1 November 2026. Pavia have recorded 0 wins from 10 matches this season (0% win rate), averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 50%; and clean sheets in 30% of games. Pro Patria have won 75% of their 12 matches, with 2.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 58%, Over 2.5 at 58%, and clean sheets at 33%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.06 for Pavia and 1.33 for Pro Patria. The models give Pavia a 31% win probability, with a draw at 29% and an Pro Patria win at 40%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 42% and BTTS at 48%.
Season Statistics
PaviaPro PatriaHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| Pavia | Home | Away | Pro Patria | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 55% | 57% | 50% | 83% | 86% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 18% | 29% | 0% | 67% | 57% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 9% | 14% | 0% | 33% | 14% | 60% |
| Failed To Score | 45% | 43% | 50% | 17% | 14% | 20% |
Goals Conceded
| Pavia | Home | Away | Pro Patria | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 73% | 71% | 75% | 67% | 71% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 45% | 43% | 50% | 17% | 0% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 27% | 29% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 27% | 29% | 25% | 33% | 29% | 40% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Pavia | Pro Patria | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 73% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 25% |
| Over 4.5 | 9% | 17% |
| BTTS | 55% | 58% |
| BTTS & Win | 9% | 50% |
| BTTS & Draw | 18% | 8% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 45% | 50% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 9% | 8% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Pavia | Pro Patria | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 9% | 42% |
| Draw 1st Half | 55% | 42% |
| Loss 1st Half | 36% | 17% |
| Scored 1st Half | 27% | 58% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 55% | 33% |
| Win 2nd Half | 27% | 58% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 45% | 33% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 27% | 8% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 45% | 67% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 55% | 42% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 64% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 36% | 42% |
Recent Venue Form
Pavia (H)
USD Casatese3–1
Varesina2–2
Sant'Angelo1–3
Arconatese1–1
Solbiatese0–0
Crema0–0Pro Patria (A)USD Casatese2–1
Città di Varese5–2Varesina0–0Arconatese3–0
Pontedera3–2
Renate1–2| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pistoiese | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +18 | 24 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +8 | 19 |
| 3 |  Castellanzese | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Lentigione | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 17 |
| 5 |  Pro Sesto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | USD Casatese | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 | Città di Varese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +6 | 12 |
| 8 |  Cittadella Vis Modena | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Sant'Angelo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 | Solbiatese | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 |  Correggese | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Pavia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 13 | Crema | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Varesina | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Coriano | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 |  Oltrepò | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Arconatese | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 3 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
Team Insights
Pavia- ●Pavia failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Pavia have been undefeated in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Pavia have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●87% of Pavia's points have been earned at home.
Pro Patria- ●Pro Patria have been undefeated in their last 4 matches.
- ●Pro Patria have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
Season Schedule
PaviaUSD Casatese3–1Pistoiese0–1Varesina2–2Correggese1–2Arconatese1–1Sant'Angelo0–0Pro Patria01/11Cittadella Vis Modena08/11Pro Sesto15/11Pro PatriaCorreggese1–1USD Casatese2–1Sant'Angelo1–0Varesina0–0Solbiatese0–1Arconatese3–0Pavia01/11Pistoiese08/11Castellanzese15/11Top Scorers
PaviaPro PatriaCards Given
PaviaPro Patria