Castuera vs Llerenense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
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Castuera and Llerenense meet in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2026 season on 25 October 2026. Castuera have recorded 4 wins from 7 matches this season (57% win rate), averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 43% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 57%; and clean sheets in 43% of games. Llerenense have won 86% of their 7 matches, with 1.43 goals scored and 0.29 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 29%, Over 2.5 at 43%, and clean sheets at 71%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.77 for Castuera and 0.84 for Llerenense. The models give Castuera a 54% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Llerenense win at 21%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 48% and BTTS at 47%.
Season Statistics
CastueraLlerenenseHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| Castuera | Home | Away | Llerenense | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 86% | 100% | 75% | 86% | 100% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 43% | 67% | 25% | 43% | 50% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 29% | 67% | 0% | 14% | 25% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 14% | 0% | 25% | 14% | 0% | 33% |
Goals Conceded
| Castuera | Home | Away | Llerenense | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 57% | 0% | 100% | 29% | 25% | 33% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 29% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 43% | 100% | 0% | 71% | 75% | 67% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Castuera | Llerenense | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 0% |
| Over 4.5 | 29% | 0% |
| BTTS | 43% | 29% |
| BTTS & Win | 14% | 29% |
| BTTS & Draw | 14% | 0% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 29% | 29% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 29% | 14% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Castuera | Llerenense | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 29% | 29% |
| Draw 1st Half | 43% | 71% |
| Loss 1st Half | 29% | 0% |
| Scored 1st Half | 71% | 29% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 57% | 0% |
| Win 2nd Half | 57% | 57% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 29% | 43% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 14% | 0% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 57% | 57% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 14% | 29% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 86% | 29% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 57% | 0% |
Recent Venue Form
Castuera (H)
Atlético Pueblonuevo5–0
Plasencia1–0
Gévora5–0
Trujillo1–2
Puebla Calzada1–2
Jaraíz3–3Llerenense (A)Gévora2–1
CD Zafra0–0
Villanovense1–0Puebla Calzada1–4
Montehermoso2–2
Cabeza Buey0–1Head to Head · 2 matches
LlerenenseCastuera| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Llerenense | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 19 |
| 2 |  Azuaga | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +11 | 18 |
| 3 |  Moralo | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +7 | 17 |
| 4 | Castuera | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +9 | 13 |
| 5 | Villanovense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 |  Jerez | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 |  Villafranca | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | CD Zafra | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| 9 | Cabeza Buey | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| 10 | Puebla Calzada | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Montijo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Gévora | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 |  Santa Amalia | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 |  Quintana | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Plasencia | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Jaraíz | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -11 | 3 |
| 18 |  Guadiana | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 1 |
Team Insights
Castuera- ●Castuera have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Castuera have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Castuera have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 home matches.
- ●73% of Castuera's goals have been scored at home.
Llerenense- ●Llerenense have won their last 3 matches.
- ●Llerenense have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Llerenense have won their last 4 home matches.
- ●Llerenense have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Llerenense have been undefeated in their last 3 away matches.
- ●70% of Llerenense's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
CastueraQuintana1–1Moralo1–2Atlético Pueblonuevo5–0Plasencia1–0Jerez2–1Puebla Calzada0–2Llerenense25/10Villafranca01/11Montijo08/11LlerenenseSanta Amalia3–0Puebla Calzada2–1Gévora2–1CD Zafra0–0Jaraíz1–0Villanovense1–0Castuera25/10Plasencia01/11Quintana08/11Top Scorers
CastueraLlerenense