Mensajero vs Unión Sur Yaiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
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Mensajero and Unión Sur Yaiza meet in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2026 season on 6 December 2026. Mensajero have recorded 3 wins from 10 matches this season (30% win rate), averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 60% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 70%; and clean sheets in 20% of games. Unión Sur Yaiza have won 56% of their 9 matches, with 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 44%, Over 2.5 at 33%, and clean sheets at 33%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.57 for Mensajero and 1.03 for Unión Sur Yaiza. The models give Mensajero a 52% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Unión Sur Yaiza win at 23%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 48% and BTTS at 51%.
Season Statistics
Mensajero—
Unión Sur Yaiza10º
Position
6º
1.33
PPG
1.78
33%
Win %
56%
1.22
Goals / game
1.44
1.78
Conceded / game
1.00
60%
BTTS %
44%
20%
Clean sheet %
33%
70%
Over 2.5 %
33%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Mensajero
Home (4)
—
Unión Sur Yaiza
Away (5)
2.00
PPG
1.40
50%
Win %
40%
1.50
Goals / game
1.20
1.00
Conceded / game
1.20
60%
BTTS %
40%
40%
Clean sheet %
40%
60%
Over 2.5 %
20%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Mensajero | Home | Away | Unión Sur | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 80% | 100% | 60% | 78% | 75% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 40% | 40% | 40% | 56% | 75% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11% | 25% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 20% | 0% | 40% | 22% | 25% | 20% |
Goals Conceded
| Mensajero | Home | Away | Unión Sur | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 80% | 60% | 100% | 67% | 75% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 60% | 60% | 60% | 11% | 0% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 20% | 0% | 40% | 11% | 0% | 20% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 40% | 0% | 33% | 25% | 40% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Mensajero | Unión Sur | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 33% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 22% |
| Over 4.5 | 10% | 11% |
| BTTS | 60% | 44% |
| BTTS & Win | 10% | 22% |
| BTTS & Draw | 30% | 11% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 60% | 33% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 10% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Mensajero | Unión Sur | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 40% | 25% |
| Draw 1st Half | 30% | 50% |
| Loss 1st Half | 30% | 25% |
| Scored 1st Half | 50% | 38% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 40% | 38% |
| Win 2nd Half | 30% | 50% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 20% | 13% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 50% | 38% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 50% | 63% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 80% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 80% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 10% | 25% |
Recent Venue Form
Mensajero (H)D
UD San Fernando2–2
UD San Fernando2–2D
San Bartolomé2–2
San Bartolomé2–2W
San Miguel1–0
San Miguel1–0W
Tenerife C1–0
Tenerife C1–0L
Real Murcia1–2
Real Murcia1–2W
Tamaraceite1–0
Tamaraceite1–0Unión Sur (A)W
Playas Sotavento2–0
Playas Sotavento2–0W
Villaverde Norte1–0
Villaverde Norte1–0D
Real Unión de Tenerife1–1
Real Unión de Tenerife1–1L
Los Llanos0–1
Los Llanos0–1L
Las Palmas III2–4
Las Palmas III2–4D
Panadería Pulido0–0
Panadería Pulido0–0Head to Head · 4 matches
2
Mensajero
50%
0
Draws
0%
2
Unión Sur
50%
75%
Over 1.5
3/4
75%
Over 2.5
3/4
25%
Over 3.5
1/4
25%
BTTS
1/4
19/04/26Mensajero
Unión Sur Yaiza
1–0Mensajero14/01/26Unión Sur Yaiza
Mensajero
3–0Unión Sur Yaiza23/04/23Mensajero
Unión Sur Yaiza
3–2Mensajero08/01/23Unión Sur Yaiza
Mensajero
3–0Unión Sur Yaiza| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD San Fernando | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 22 |
| 2 | Panadería Pulido | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 | San Miguel | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +11 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Unión de Tenerife | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 17 |
| 5 | Las Palmas III | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +9 | 16 |
| 6 | Unión Sur Yaiza | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 16 |
| 7 |  Marino | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +6 | 14 |
| 8 | Tenerife C | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Los Llanos | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 10 | Mensajero | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lanzarote | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | San Bartolomé | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 |  San Fernando CD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Estrella | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 |  Villa Santa Brígida | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 |  Anaza | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Playas Sotavento | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -17 | 4 |
| 17 |  Laguna de Duero | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 2 |
| 18 | Villaverde Norte | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -19 | 2 |
Team Insights
Mensajero- ●Mensajero have failed to win in their last 5 matches.
- ●Mensajero failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Mensajero have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Mensajero have been undefeated in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Mensajero have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Mensajero have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Mensajero failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Mensajero have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Mensajero failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 away matches.
- ●75% of Mensajero's goals conceded were conceded away.
Unión Sur- ●Unión Sur Yaiza have won their last 3 matches.
- ●Unión Sur Yaiza have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Unión Sur Yaiza have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Unión Sur Yaiza have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Unión Sur Yaiza have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 away matches.
- ●67% of Unión Sur Yaiza's goals conceded were conceded away.
Season Schedule
MensajeroLALos Llanos1–3
Los Llanos1–3DHUD San Fernando2–2
UD San Fernando2–2LAPanadería Pulido0–5
Panadería Pulido0–5DALas Palmas III2–2
Las Palmas III2–2DHSan Bartolomé2–2
San Bartolomé2–2WAVillaverde Norte2–1
Villaverde Norte2–1–HMarino08/11
Marino08/11–AReal Unión de Tenerife14/11
Real Unión de Tenerife14/11–HLaguna de Duero22/11
Laguna de Duero22/11Unión SurWAPlayas Sotavento2–0
Playas Sotavento2–0WHLaguna de Duero3–1
Laguna de Duero3–1WAVillaverde Norte1–0
Villaverde Norte1–0DAReal Unión de Tenerife1–1
Real Unión de Tenerife1–1WHMarino2–1
Marino2–1LALos Llanos0–1
Los Llanos0–1–HPanadería Pulido07/11
Panadería Pulido07/11–HEstrella14/11
Estrella14/11–ALanzarote22/11
Lanzarote22/11Top Scorers
MensajeroM. Barroso Santana5 ⚽
A. Machin2 ⚽
J. A. Ojeda Gil1 ⚽
N. M. Brito1 ⚽
O. Gonzalez1 ⚽
S. Salgado1 ⚽
Unión SurA. Iglesias3 ⚽
J. Guijarro2 ⚽
G. Alvarez1 ⚽
J. Medina1 ⚽
J. Melian1 ⚽
M. A. Sosa1 ⚽
Cards Given
MensajeroUnión SurD. Simon1 🟨