Castro vs Guarnizo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
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Castro and Guarnizo meet in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2026 season on 15 November 2026. Castro have recorded 2 wins from 7 matches this season (29% win rate), averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 29% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 43%; and clean sheets in 43% of games. Guarnizo have won 25% of their 8 matches, with 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 75%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 13%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.66 for Castro and 1.24 for Guarnizo. The models give Castro a 39% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Guarnizo win at 35%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 55% and BTTS at 58%.
Season Statistics
Castro
GuarnizoHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| Castro | Home | Away | Guarnizo | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 63% | 50% | 75% | 88% | 75% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 50% | 50% | 50% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 13% | 25% | 0% | 13% | 25% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 38% | 50% | 25% | 13% | 25% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Castro | Home | Away | Guarnizo | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 63% | 50% | 75% | 88% | 75% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 63% | 50% | 75% | 38% | 0% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 13% | 0% | 25% | 25% | 0% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 38% | 50% | 25% | 13% | 25% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Castro | Guarnizo | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 88% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 38% |
| Over 4.5 | 13% | 25% |
| BTTS | 38% | 75% |
| BTTS & Win | 0% | 13% |
| BTTS & Draw | 13% | 25% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 38% | 50% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 13% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Castro | Guarnizo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 25% | 25% |
| Draw 1st Half | 25% | 50% |
| Loss 1st Half | 50% | 25% |
| Scored 1st Half | 25% | 25% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 50% | 50% |
| Win 2nd Half | 25% | 25% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 38% | 25% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 38% | 50% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 50% | 63% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 50% | 63% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 75% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 38% | 25% |
Recent Venue Form
Castro (H)
Escobedo3–0
Tropezón0–2
Atlético Mineros0–2
Solares2–0Tropezón0–2
Gimnástica Torrelavega2–3Guarnizo (A)
Laredo2–4
Torina1–1
Sámano1–4Atlético Mineros1–2Tropezón0–3
Bezana1–1Head to Head · 12 matches
GuarnizoCastroGuarnizoCastroCastroGuarnizoCastroGuarnizoGuarnizoCastroCastroGuarnizo| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 19 |
| 2 | Laredo | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +14 | 18 |
| 3 | Bezana | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 16 |
| 4 |  Revilla | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +6 | 14 |
| 5 |  Cayón | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 |  Vimenor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Sámano | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +8 | 12 |
| 8 | Torina | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +6 | 11 |
| 9 | Atlético Mineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Castro | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Selaya | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Solares | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 |  Atlético Albericia | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Guarnizo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Escobedo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 |  Barquereño | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 17 |  Velarde | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 |  Naval Reinosa | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
Team Insights
Castro- ●Castro have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Castro have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●67% of Castro's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●75% of Castro's points have been earned at home.
Guarnizo- ●Guarnizo have scored in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Guarnizo have been undefeated in their last 3 home matches.
- ●Guarnizo have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●79% of Guarnizo's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●87% of Guarnizo's points have been earned at home.
Season Schedule
CastroNaval Reinosa1–2Escobedo3–0Atlético Albericia2–4Tropezón0–2Atlético Mineros0–2Revilla2–2Barquereño31/10Vimenor08/11Guarnizo15/11GuarnizoSelaya1–0Laredo2–4Bezana1–1Torina1–1Velarde3–1Sámano1–4Solares01/11Revilla08/11Castro15/11Top Scorers
CastroGuarnizoCards Given
CastroGuarnizo