Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu — J2 League
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Shonan Bellmare and Sagan Tosu meet in the J2 League 2026 season on 3 November 2026. Shonan Bellmare have recorded 14 wins from 37 matches this season (38% win rate), averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 62% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 41%; and clean sheets in 27% of games. Sagan Tosu have won 50% of their 40 matches, with 1.52 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 45%, Over 2.5 at 40%, and clean sheets at 38%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.31 for Shonan Bellmare and 1.05 for Sagan Tosu. The models give Shonan Bellmare a 46% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an Sagan Tosu win at 27%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 42% and BTTS at 48%.
Season Statistics
Shonan Bellmare—
Sagan Tosu3º
Position
13º
1.56
PPG
1.17
44%
Win %
33%
1.39
Goals / game
1.00
1.06
Conceded / game
1.25
62%
BTTS %
45%
27%
Clean sheet %
38%
41%
Over 2.5 %
40%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Shonan Bellmare
Home (9)
—
Sagan Tosu
Away (6)
1.11
PPG
0.33
33%
Win %
0%
1.22
Goals / game
0.50
1.22
Conceded / game
1.33
63%
BTTS %
39%
25%
Clean sheet %
33%
44%
Over 2.5 %
33%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Shonan Bellmare | Home | Away | Sagan Tosu | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 87% | 88% | 86% | 80% | 91% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 26% | 18% | 33% | 45% | 55% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 13% | 6% | 19% | 10% | 18% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 13% | 12% | 14% | 20% | 9% | 33% |
Goals Conceded
| Shonan Bellmare | Home | Away | Sagan Tosu | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 74% | 76% | 71% | 63% | 59% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 26% | 35% | 19% | 28% | 18% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 11% | 6% | 14% | 8% | 9% | 6% |
| Clean Sheets | 26% | 24% | 29% | 38% | 41% | 33% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Shonan Bellmare | Sagan Tosu | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 97% | 98% |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 73% |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 25% |
| Over 4.5 | 5% | 5% |
| BTTS | 63% | 45% |
| BTTS & Win | 16% | 15% |
| BTTS & Draw | 32% | 18% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 37% | 35% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 5% | 5% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Shonan Bellmare | Sagan Tosu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 22% | 34% |
| Draw 1st Half | 42% | 50% |
| Loss 1st Half | 36% | 16% |
| Scored 1st Half | 39% | 50% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 47% | 29% |
| Win 2nd Half | 44% | 45% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 39% | 29% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 17% | 26% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 64% | 61% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 39% | 42% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 69% | 63% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 31% | 21% |
Recent Venue Form
Shonan Bellmare (H)W
Tochigi City2–1
Tochigi City2–1D
Iwaki1–1
Iwaki1–1D
Albirex Niigata1–1
Albirex Niigata1–1D
Blaublitz Akita1–1
Blaublitz Akita1–1L
Vegalta Sendai1–3
Vegalta Sendai1–3W
Reinmeer Aomori1–0
Reinmeer Aomori1–0Sagan Tosu (A)LAlbirex Niigata1–2
Albirex Niigata1–2LBlaublitz Akita0–1
Blaublitz Akita0–1L
Montedio Yamagata0–2
Montedio Yamagata0–2L
Vissel Kobe0–1
Vissel Kobe0–1L
Imabari0–1
Imabari0–1W
Nara Club2–1
Nara Club2–1Head to Head · 24 matches
9
Shonan Bellmare
38%
9
Draws
38%
6
Sagan Tosu
25%
63%
Over 1.5
15/24
33%
Over 2.5
8/24
21%
Over 3.5
5/24
46%
BTTS
11/24
06/06/26Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu
1–0Shonan Bellmare31/08/24Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu
1–2Shonan Bellmare06/05/24Sagan Tosu
Shonan Bellmare
2–1Sagan Tosu24/06/23Sagan Tosu
Shonan Bellmare
0–6Sagan Tosu18/02/23Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu
1–5Shonan Bellmare29/10/22Sagan Tosu
Shonan Bellmare
3–0Sagan Tosu26/02/22Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu
1–1Shonan Bellmare16/10/21Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu
1–1Shonan Bellmare27/02/21Sagan Tosu
Shonan Bellmare
0–1Sagan Tosu25/10/20Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu
2–2Shonan Bellmare21/10/20Sagan Tosu
Shonan Bellmare
0–0Sagan Tosu17/08/19Sagan Tosu
Shonan Bellmare
2–3Sagan Tosu28/04/19Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu
0–2Shonan Bellmare06/10/18Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu
0–1Shonan Bellmare18/07/18Sagan Tosu
Shonan Bellmare
1–1Sagan Tosu18/04/18Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu
0–0Shonan Bellmare07/03/18Sagan Tosu
Shonan Bellmare
1–0Sagan Tosu13/07/16Sagan Tosu
Shonan Bellmare
0–2Sagan Tosu04/05/16Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu
0–1Shonan Bellmare25/07/15Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu
1–1Shonan Bellmare| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | +24 | 47 |
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | +17 | 43 |
| 1 |  Kataller Toyama | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | +13 | 38 |
| 1 |  Ventforet Kofu | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | +8 | 35 |
| 2 | Blaublitz Akita | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | +9 | 35 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | +4 | 35 |
| 2 |  Kagoshima United | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | +8 | 33 |
| 2 |  Consadole Sapporo | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | +4 | 31 |
| 3 | Sagan Tosu | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | +10 | 32 |
| 3 |  Tokushima Vortis | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | +14 | 32 |
| 3 | Shonan Bellmare | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | +6 | 31 |
| 3 | Iwaki | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | +4 | 31 |
| 4 |  Omiya Ardija | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | +10 | 30 |
| 4 |  Kochi United | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | +2 | 30 |
| 4 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 4 |  Yokohama FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | +7 | 29 |
| 5 |  Fujieda MYFC | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | +4 | 30 |
| 5 |  Sagamihara | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | -2 | 28 |
| 5 |  Ehime FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | +7 | 28 |
| 5 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 27 |
| 6 |  FC Gifu | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 28 |
| 6 |  Kanazawa | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | -6 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gainare Tottori | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -4 | 27 |
| 6 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 23 |
| 7 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | +10 | 26 |
| 7 | Montedio Yamagata | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -5 | 22 |
| 7 |  Oita Trinita | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 22 |
| 7 | Nara Club | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -9 | 21 |
| 8 |  Jubilo Iwata | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -7 | 25 |
| 8 |  Biwako Shiga | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -13 | 21 |
| 8 | Tochigi City | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -13 | 21 |
| 8 |  Osaka | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | -3 | 20 |
| 9 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -4 | 20 |
| 9 | Imabari | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 9 |  Fukushima United | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -13 | 18 |
| 9 |  FC Ryukyu | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -12 | 17 |
| 10 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 19 |
| 10 |  Tochigi SC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -5 | 18 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -18 | 16 |
| 10 |  Kitakyushu | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -15 | 15 |
Team Insights
Shonan Bellmare- ●Shonan Bellmare have been undefeated in their last 8 matches.
- ●Shonan Bellmare failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Shonan Bellmare have scored in each of their last 10 matches.
- ●Shonan Bellmare have been undefeated in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Shonan Bellmare failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Shonan Bellmare have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Shonan Bellmare have been undefeated in their last 7 away matches.
- ●Shonan Bellmare have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Shonan Bellmare failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Shonan Bellmare have scored in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Shonan Bellmare have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Shonan Bellmare have won 3 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Shonan Bellmare have scored in 6 of their 7 away matches.
Sagan Tosu- ●Sagan Tosu have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have scored in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have lost their last 4 away matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have scored in 7 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have lost 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●79% of Sagan Tosu's goals have been scored at home.
- ●88% of Sagan Tosu's points have been earned at home.
Season Schedule
Shonan BellmareWHTochigi City2–1
Tochigi City2–1DHIwaki1–1
Iwaki1–1DAKataller Toyama1–1
Kataller Toyama1–1DHAlbirex Niigata1–1
Albirex Niigata1–1DAFujieda MYFC1–1
Fujieda MYFC1–1WAImabari2–1
Imabari2–1–AConsadole Sapporo31/10
Consadole Sapporo31/10–HSagan Tosu03/11
Sagan Tosu03/11–AJubilo Iwata08/11
Jubilo Iwata08/11Sagan TosuWHVanraure Hachinohe2–0
Vanraure Hachinohe2–0LAAlbirex Niigata1–2
Albirex Niigata1–2WHOmiya Ardija2–1
Omiya Ardija2–1WHFujieda MYFC1–0
Fujieda MYFC1–0LABlaublitz Akita0–1
Blaublitz Akita0–1LAMontedio Yamagata0–2
Montedio Yamagata0–2–AJubilo Iwata31/10
Jubilo Iwata31/10–AShonan Bellmare03/11
Shonan Bellmare03/11–HKataller Toyama07/11
Kataller Toyama07/11Top Scorers
Shonan BellmareH. Yamada12 ⚽
H. Okuno6 ⚽
T. Nishino4 ⚽
K. Watanabe3 ⚽
H. Ishii2 ⚽
H. Matsumura2 ⚽
Sagan TosuR. Shiohama7 ⚽
K. Nishizawa5 ⚽
K. Yoshino4 ⚽
T. Takahashi4 ⚽
M. Yoshida3 ⚽
K. Sakamoto3 ⚽
Cards Given
Shonan BellmareArthur Feitoza6 🟨
K. Watanabe6 🟨
M. Ikeda5 🟨
S. Takeda4 🟨
K. Onose4 🟨
Y. Fukazawa4 🟨
Sagan TosuK. Nishizawa4 🟨
S. Nagasawa4 🟨
K. Kamiyama3 🟨
N. Matsumoto3 🟨
N. Sakai2 🟨
S. Ogawa2 🟨