Kostinbrod vs Septemvri Simitli — Third League - Southwest
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Kostinbrod and Septemvri Simitli meet in the Third League - Southwest 2026 season on 21 November 2026. Kostinbrod have recorded 7 wins from 14 matches this season (50% win rate), averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 36% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 57%; and clean sheets in 29% of games. Septemvri Simitli have won 31% of their 16 matches, with 1.44 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 69%, Over 2.5 at 56%, and clean sheets at 25%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 2.02 for Kostinbrod and 1.36 for Septemvri Simitli. The models give Kostinbrod a 52% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Septemvri Simitli win at 25%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 65% and BTTS at 65%.
Season Statistics
Kostinbrod—
Septemvri Simitli4º
Position
16º
1.57
PPG
1.07
50%
Win %
21%
1.71
Goals / game
1.36
1.21
Conceded / game
1.71
36%
BTTS %
69%
29%
Clean sheet %
25%
57%
Over 2.5 %
56%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Kostinbrod
Home (7)
—
Septemvri Simitli
Away (7)
1.86
PPG
1.14
57%
Win %
29%
2.57
Goals / game
1.57
1.29
Conceded / game
2.00
57%
BTTS %
78%
29%
Clean sheet %
22%
71%
Over 2.5 %
78%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Kostinbrod | Home | Away | Septemvri Simitli | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 64% | 86% | 43% | 88% | 71% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 43% | 57% | 29% | 44% | 29% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 36% | 57% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 11% |
| Failed To Score | 36% | 14% | 57% | 13% | 29% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Kostinbrod | Home | Away | Septemvri Simitli | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 71% | 71% | 71% | 75% | 71% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 29% | 29% | 29% | 44% | 43% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 21% | 29% | 14% | 25% | 29% | 22% |
| Clean Sheets | 29% | 29% | 29% | 25% | 29% | 22% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Kostinbrod | Septemvri Simitli | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 88% |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 31% |
| Over 4.5 | 21% | 13% |
| BTTS | 36% | 69% |
| BTTS & Win | 21% | 13% |
| BTTS & Draw | 7% | 31% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 36% | 50% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 21% | 6% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Kostinbrod | Septemvri Simitli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 29% | 21% |
| Draw 1st Half | 36% | 50% |
| Loss 1st Half | 36% | 29% |
| Scored 1st Half | 36% | 71% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 36% | 64% |
| Win 2nd Half | 43% | 29% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 36% | 36% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 21% | 36% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 64% | 50% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 57% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 64% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 36% | 57% |
Recent Venue Form
Kostinbrod (H)D
Bansko3–3
Bansko3–3W
Pirin Razlog5–1
Pirin Razlog5–1W
Chavdar Etropole5–0
Chavdar Etropole5–0L
Balkan Botevgrad0–1
Balkan Botevgrad0–1L
Septemvri Sofia II1–3
Septemvri Sofia II1–3W
Slavia Sofia II1–0
Slavia Sofia II1–0Septemvri Simitli (A)L
Levski Sofia II1–2
Levski Sofia II1–2D
Botev Ihtiman2–2
Botev Ihtiman2–2W
Strumska Slava2–1
Strumska Slava2–1LBansko1–3
Bansko1–3DPirin Razlog1–1
Pirin Razlog1–1LChavdar Etropole2–4
Chavdar Etropole2–4Head to Head · 7 matches
2
Kostinbrod
29%
2
Draws
29%
3
Septemvri Simitli
43%
71%
Over 1.5
5/7
43%
Over 2.5
3/7
43%
Over 3.5
3/7
43%
BTTS
3/7
01/08/26Kostinbrod
Septemvri Simitli
2–0Kostinbrod16/05/26Kostinbrod
Septemvri Simitli
4–1Kostinbrod01/11/25Septemvri Simitli
Kostinbrod
2–3Septemvri Simitli25/05/24Kostinbrod
Septemvri Simitli
0–0Kostinbrod11/11/23Septemvri Simitli
Kostinbrod
3–1Septemvri Simitli03/12/22Kostinbrod
Septemvri Simitli
0–0Kostinbrod17/09/22Septemvri Simitli
Kostinbrod
2–0Septemvri Simitli| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Minyor Pernik | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | +27 | 36 |
| 2 | Bansko | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |  Oborishte | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +13 | 26 |
| 4 | Kostinbrod | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | +7 | 22 |
| 5 | Balkan Botevgrad | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 22 |
| 6 | Strumska Slava | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 | Septemvri Sofia II | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 19 |
| 8 |  Slivnishki geroy | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 19 |
| 9 |  Belasitsa | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 18 |
| 10 |  CSKA Sofia III | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +1 | 17 |
| 11 | Slavia Sofia II | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| 12 | Chavdar Etropole | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 17 |
| 13 | Botev Ihtiman | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | Levski Sofia II | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 15 |  Kyustendil | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 16 | Septemvri Simitli | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -5 | 15 |
| 17 |  Natsional Sofia | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -26 | 10 |
Team Insights
Kostinbrod- ●Kostinbrod have been undefeated in their last 3 home matches.
- ●Kostinbrod have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Kostinbrod failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Kostinbrod have scored in 6 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Kostinbrod failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Kostinbrod have won 3 of their 7 away matches.
- ●75% of Kostinbrod's goals have been scored at home.
Septemvri Simitli- ●Septemvri Simitli have failed to win in their last 4 matches.
- ●Septemvri Simitli failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 11 matches.
- ●Septemvri Simitli have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Septemvri Simitli have failed to win in their last 6 home matches.
- ●Septemvri Simitli failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Septemvri Simitli failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Septemvri Simitli have scored in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Septemvri Simitli failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Septemvri Simitli failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Septemvri Simitli have scored in 7 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Septemvri Simitli have scored 58% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
KostinbrodDHBansko3–3
Bansko3–3LAFK Minyor Pernik0–3
FK Minyor Pernik0–3WHPirin Razlog5–1
Pirin Razlog5–1WHChavdar Etropole5–0
Chavdar Etropole5–0LACSKA Sofia III0–1
CSKA Sofia III0–1LHBalkan Botevgrad0–1
Balkan Botevgrad0–1–AOborishte07/11
Oborishte07/11–HStrumska Slava14/11
Strumska Slava14/11–ANatsional Sofia18/11
Natsional Sofia18/11Septemvri SimitliLALevski Sofia II1–2
Levski Sofia II1–2DHSlavia Sofia II1–1
Slavia Sofia II1–1DABotev Ihtiman2–2
Botev Ihtiman2–2DHBelasitsa1–1
Belasitsa1–1WAStrumska Slava2–1
Strumska Slava2–1LHOborishte1–3
Oborishte1–3–HSeptemvri Sofia II07/11
Septemvri Sofia II07/11–ASlivnishki geroy14/11
Slivnishki geroy14/11–HKyustendil18/11
Kyustendil18/11