Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod — Third League - Southwest
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Natsional Sofia and Kostinbrod meet in the Third League - Southwest 2026 season on 18 November 2026. Natsional Sofia have recorded 2 wins from 15 matches this season (13% win rate), averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 67% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 67%; and clean sheets in 13% of games. Kostinbrod have won 50% of their 14 matches, with 1.71 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 36%, Over 2.5 at 57%, and clean sheets at 29%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.36 for Natsional Sofia and 1.27 for Kostinbrod. The models give Natsional Sofia a 38% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an Kostinbrod win at 34%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 49% and BTTS at 54%.
Season Statistics
Natsional SofiaKostinbrodHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| Natsional Sofia | Home | Away | Kostinbrod | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 73% | 86% | 63% | 64% | 86% | 43% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 47% | 43% | 50% | 43% | 57% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 13% | 0% | 25% | 36% | 57% | 14% |
| Failed To Score | 27% | 14% | 38% | 36% | 14% | 57% |
Goals Conceded
| Natsional Sofia | Home | Away | Kostinbrod | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 87% | 86% | 88% | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 67% | 71% | 63% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 40% | 29% | 50% | 21% | 29% | 14% |
| Clean Sheets | 13% | 14% | 13% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Natsional Sofia | Kostinbrod | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 53% | 36% |
| Over 4.5 | 20% | 21% |
| BTTS | 67% | 36% |
| BTTS & Win | 7% | 21% |
| BTTS & Draw | 27% | 7% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 60% | 36% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 7% | 21% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Natsional Sofia | Kostinbrod | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 7% | 29% |
| Draw 1st Half | 40% | 36% |
| Loss 1st Half | 53% | 36% |
| Scored 1st Half | 47% | 36% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 73% | 36% |
| Win 2nd Half | 20% | 43% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 53% | 36% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 27% | 21% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 60% | 64% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 60% | 57% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 80% | 64% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 60% | 36% |
Recent Venue Form
Natsional Sofia (H)
CSKA Sofia III2–2
Septemvri Sofia II1–2
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa1–3
Slavia Sofia II2–0
Kyustendil1–1
Strumska Slava0–3Kostinbrod (A)
FK Minyor Pernik0–3CSKA Sofia III0–1
Belasitsa1–0
Slivnishki geroy3–0
Levski Sofia II2–1
Botev Ihtiman0–1| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | +27 | 36 |
| 2 |  Bansko | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |  Oborishte | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +13 | 26 |
| 4 | Kostinbrod | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | +7 | 22 |
| 5 |  Balkan Botevgrad | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 22 |
| 6 | Strumska Slava | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 | Septemvri Sofia II | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 19 |
| 8 | Slivnishki geroy | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 19 |
| 9 | Belasitsa | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 18 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +1 | 17 |
| 11 | Slavia Sofia II | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| 12 |  Chavdar Etropole | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 17 |
| 13 | Botev Ihtiman | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | Levski Sofia II | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 15 | Kyustendil | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 16 |  Septemvri Simitli | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -5 | 15 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 |  Pirin Razlog | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -26 | 10 |
Team Insights
Natsional Sofia- ●Natsional Sofia failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Natsional Sofia have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Natsional Sofia have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Natsional Sofia failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Natsional Sofia failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Natsional Sofia have lost 5 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Natsional Sofia have conceded 56% of their goals in the first half.
Kostinbrod- ●Kostinbrod have been undefeated in their last 3 home matches.
- ●Kostinbrod have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Kostinbrod failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Kostinbrod have scored in 6 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Kostinbrod failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Kostinbrod have won 3 of their 7 away matches.
- ●75% of Kostinbrod's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
Natsional SofiaChavdar Etropole2–4CSKA Sofia III2–2Balkan Botevgrad3–1Slivnishki geroy0–2Septemvri Sofia II1–2Levski Sofia II0–0Belasitsa07/11Pirin Razlog14/11Kostinbrod18/11KostinbrodBansko3–3FK Minyor Pernik0–3Pirin Razlog5–1Chavdar Etropole5–0CSKA Sofia III0–1Balkan Botevgrad0–1Oborishte07/11Strumska Slava14/11Natsional Sofia18/11Top Scorers
Natsional SofiaKostinbrod