Paredes vs Varzim — Liga 3
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Paredes and Varzim meet in the Liga 3 2026 season on 20 December 2026. Paredes have recorded 11 wins from 14 matches this season (79% win rate), averaging 2.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 64% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 71%; and clean sheets in 29% of games. Varzim have won 42% of their 12 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 58%, Over 2.5 at 58%, and clean sheets at 17%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.68 for Paredes and 1.15 for Varzim. The models give Paredes a 54% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Varzim win at 22%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 54% and BTTS at 56%.
Season Statistics
Paredes—
Varzim1º
Position
8º
2.38
PPG
1.13
75%
Win %
38%
2.13
Goals / game
1.38
1.00
Conceded / game
1.63
64%
BTTS %
58%
29%
Clean sheet %
17%
71%
Over 2.5 %
58%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Paredes
Home (5)
—
Varzim
Away (4)
2.40
PPG
1.50
80%
Win %
50%
2.40
Goals / game
1.50
1.00
Conceded / game
1.25
75%
BTTS %
43%
25%
Clean sheet %
29%
88%
Over 2.5 %
43%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Paredes | Home | Away | Varzim | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 93% | 100% | 83% | 75% | 80% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 64% | 75% | 50% | 33% | 60% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 50% | 50% | 50% | 17% | 20% | 14% |
| Failed To Score | 7% | 0% | 17% | 25% | 20% | 29% |
Goals Conceded
| Paredes | Home | Away | Varzim | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 71% | 75% | 67% | 83% | 100% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 36% | 25% | 50% | 42% | 40% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 7% | 0% | 17% | 8% | 20% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 29% | 25% | 33% | 17% | 0% | 29% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Paredes | Varzim | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% |
| Over 4.5 | 29% | 25% |
| BTTS | 64% | 58% |
| BTTS & Win | 50% | 25% |
| BTTS & Draw | 7% | 0% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 64% | 58% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 7% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Paredes | Varzim | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 62% | 42% |
| Draw 1st Half | 15% | 25% |
| Loss 1st Half | 23% | 33% |
| Scored 1st Half | 85% | 58% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 38% | 50% |
| Win 2nd Half | 38% | 25% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 46% | 33% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 15% | 42% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 62% | 42% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 46% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 92% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 62% | 33% |
Recent Venue Form
Paredes (H)W
São João Ver2–1
São João Ver2–1W
Trofense4–0
Trofense4–0W
Famalicao1–0
Famalicao1–0W
Maria da Fonte5–1
Maria da Fonte5–1W
Fafe2–1
Fafe2–1L
Leça1–2
Leça1–2Varzim (A)LLeça0–2
Leça0–2LSão João Ver1–2
São João Ver1–2L
Vitória de Sernache1–2
Vitória de Sernache1–2W
Pacos Ferreira4–1
Pacos Ferreira4–1WTrofense1–0
Trofense1–0W
Tirsense1–0
Tirsense1–0Head to Head · 5 matches
2
Paredes
40%
2
Draws
40%
1
Varzim
20%
20%
Over 1.5
1/5
20%
Over 2.5
1/5
20%
Over 3.5
1/5
20%
BTTS
1/5
05/09/26Paredes
Varzim
0–1Paredes13/12/25Varzim
Paredes
0–0Varzim12/09/25Paredes
Varzim
2–2Paredes12/03/23Varzim
Paredes
1–0Varzim02/12/22Paredes
Varzim
1–0Paredes| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CF Os Belenenses | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 20 |
| 1 | Paredes | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +9 | 19 |
| 2 |  Atlético CP | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 17 |
| 2 |  AD Marco 09 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 14 |
| 3 | Fafe | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +6 | 13 |
| 3 |  Mafra | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +5 | 12 |
| 4 | Leça | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 |  Caldas | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 5 |  Vianense | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 5 |  Oliveirense | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 |  União Santarém | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 6 |  Guimaraes B | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | São João Ver | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 |  Louletano | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 8 | Varzim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 |  SC Covilha | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 9 | Pacos Ferreira | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 9 | Vitória de Sernache | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 |  Lusitano Évora 1911 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 10 | Trofense | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Team Insights
Paredes- ●Paredes have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Paredes have scored in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Paredes have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Paredes have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Paredes have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Paredes have been undefeated in their last 3 away matches.
- ●Paredes failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 home matches.
- ●71% of Paredes's goals have been scored at home.
- ●Paredes have scored 65% of their goals in the first half.
Varzim- ●Varzim have failed to win in their last 5 matches.
- ●Varzim have lost their last 5 matches.
- ●Varzim failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Varzim have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Varzim have lost their last 3 home matches.
- ●Varzim have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●67% of Varzim's points have been earned away.
- ●Varzim have scored 73% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
ParedesWHSão João Ver2–1
São João Ver2–1WHTrofense4–0
Trofense4–0DAVianense3–3
Vianense3–3WHFafe2–1
Fafe2–1WAVarzim1–0
Varzim1–0LHLeça1–2
Leça1–2–AAD Marco 0907/11
AD Marco 0907/11–AGuimaraes B29/11
Guimaraes B29/11–HPacos Ferreira06/12
Pacos Ferreira06/12VarzimLALeça0–2
Leça0–2LHGuimaraes B2–4
Guimaraes B2–4LASão João Ver1–2
São João Ver1–2LHVianense1–2
Vianense1–2LHParedes0–1
Paredes0–1WAPacos Ferreira4–1
Pacos Ferreira4–1–HFafe08/11
Fafe08/11–HTrofense28/11
Trofense28/11–AAD Marco 0906/12
AD Marco 0906/12Top Scorers
ParedesF. Canario5 ⚽
F. Almara4 ⚽
Miguel4 ⚽
D. Rodrigues3 ⚽
Erik3 ⚽
J. Yuk2 ⚽
Varzim5 ⚽
F. Silva3 ⚽
D. Rebelo2 ⚽
David Peres2 ⚽
Tim2 ⚽
R. Oliveira1 ⚽
Cards Given
ParedesMiguel3 🟨
3 🟨
J. Vigario2 🟨
Erik2 🟨
D. P. Duarte2 🟨
D. Rodrigues2 🟨
VarzimBoloto3 🟨
3 🟨
R. Oliveira2 🟨
J. Couto1 🟨
Jordao1 🟨
Kaua Vinicius1 🟨