Varzim vs Trofense — Liga 3
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Varzim and Trofense meet in the Liga 3 2026 season on 28 November 2026. Varzim have recorded 5 wins from 12 matches this season (42% win rate), averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 58% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 58%; and clean sheets in 17% of games. Trofense have won 10% of their 10 matches, with 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 40%, Over 2.5 at 40%, and clean sheets at 20%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.56 for Varzim and 1.18 for Trofense. The models give Varzim a 48% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Trofense win at 26%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 51% and BTTS at 55%.
Season Statistics
Varzim—
Trofense8º
Position
10º
1.13
PPG
0.63
38%
Win %
13%
1.38
Goals / game
0.50
1.63
Conceded / game
1.88
58%
BTTS %
40%
17%
Clean sheet %
20%
58%
Over 2.5 %
40%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Varzim
Home (4)
—
Trofense
Away (4)
0.75
PPG
0.50
25%
Win %
0%
1.25
Goals / game
0.50
2.00
Conceded / game
2.00
80%
BTTS %
50%
0%
Clean sheet %
17%
80%
Over 2.5 %
50%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Varzim | Home | Away | Trofense | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 75% | 80% | 71% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 33% | 60% | 14% | 10% | 0% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 17% | 20% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 25% | 20% | 29% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Goals Conceded
| Varzim | Home | Away | Trofense | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 83% | 100% | 71% | 80% | 75% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 42% | 40% | 43% | 60% | 50% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 8% | 20% | 0% | 30% | 25% | 33% |
| Clean Sheets | 17% | 0% | 29% | 20% | 25% | 17% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Varzim | Trofense | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 40% |
| Over 4.5 | 25% | 20% |
| BTTS | 58% | 40% |
| BTTS & Win | 25% | 0% |
| BTTS & Draw | 0% | 20% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 58% | 30% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 10% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Varzim | Trofense | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 42% | 20% |
| Draw 1st Half | 25% | 30% |
| Loss 1st Half | 33% | 50% |
| Scored 1st Half | 58% | 40% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 50% | 60% |
| Win 2nd Half | 25% | 10% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 33% | 20% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 42% | 70% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 42% | 20% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 50% | 70% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 83% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 33% | 30% |
Recent Venue Form
Varzim (H)L
Guimaraes B2–4
Guimaraes B2–4L
Vianense1–2
Vianense1–2L
Paredes0–1
Paredes0–1WTrofense5–1
Trofense5–1W
AD Marco 092–1
AD Marco 092–1L
CF Os Belenenses1–2
CF Os Belenenses1–2Trofense (A)LParedes0–4
Paredes0–4D
Fafe2–2
Fafe2–2DGuimaraes B0–0
Guimaraes B0–0LVarzim1–5
Varzim1–5LVianense0–2
Vianense0–2D
AVS1–1
AVS1–1Head to Head · 13 matches
5
Varzim
38%
1
Draws
8%
7
Trofense
54%
62%
Over 1.5
8/13
54%
Over 2.5
7/13
31%
Over 3.5
4/13
54%
BTTS
7/13
29/08/26Trofense
Varzim
5–1Trofense09/08/26Varzim
Trofense
0–1Varzim18/04/26Varzim
Trofense
0–1Varzim21/02/26Trofense
Varzim
2–0Trofense20/12/25Trofense
Varzim
0–1Trofense11/10/25Varzim
Trofense
2–1Varzim30/08/25Varzim
Trofense
5–1Varzim18/01/25Trofense
Varzim
2–1Trofense06/10/24Varzim
Trofense
3–2Varzim16/12/23Trofense
Varzim
1–2Trofense03/09/23Varzim
Trofense
0–0Varzim25/04/22Varzim
Trofense
1–0Varzim12/12/21Trofense
Varzim
1–3Trofense| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 20 |
| 1 | Paredes | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +9 | 19 |
| 2 |  Atlético CP | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 17 |
| 2 | AD Marco 09 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 14 |
| 3 | Fafe | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +6 | 13 |
| 3 |  Mafra | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +5 | 12 |
| 4 |  Leça | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 |  Caldas | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 5 | Vianense | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 5 |  Oliveirense | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 |  União Santarém | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 6 | Guimaraes B | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  São João Ver | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 |  Louletano | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 8 | Varzim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 |  SC Covilha | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Pacos Ferreira | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 9 |  Vitória de Sernache | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 |  Lusitano Évora 1911 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 10 | Trofense | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Team Insights
Varzim- ●Varzim have failed to win in their last 5 matches.
- ●Varzim have lost their last 5 matches.
- ●Varzim failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Varzim have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Varzim have lost their last 3 home matches.
- ●Varzim have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●67% of Varzim's points have been earned away.
- ●Varzim have scored 73% of their goals in the first half.
Trofense- ●Trofense have failed to win in their last 5 matches.
- ●Trofense have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Trofense have conceded 60% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
VarzimLALeça0–2
Leça0–2LHGuimaraes B2–4
Guimaraes B2–4LASão João Ver1–2
São João Ver1–2LHVianense1–2
Vianense1–2LHParedes0–1
Paredes0–1WAPacos Ferreira4–1
Pacos Ferreira4–1–HFafe08/11
Fafe08/11–HTrofense28/11
Trofense28/11–AAD Marco 0906/12
AD Marco 0906/12TrofenseLHAD Marco 090–2
AD Marco 090–2LAParedes0–4
Paredes0–4DAFafe2–2
Fafe2–2LHLeça1–4
Leça1–4DAGuimaraes B0–0
Guimaraes B0–0WHSão João Ver1–0
São João Ver1–0–APacos Ferreira08/11
Pacos Ferreira08/11–AVarzim28/11
Varzim28/11–HVianense06/12
Vianense06/12Top Scorers
Varzim5 ⚽
F. Silva3 ⚽
D. Rebelo2 ⚽
David Peres2 ⚽
Tim2 ⚽
R. Oliveira1 ⚽
Trofense2 ⚽
J. Gunjo1 ⚽
Lucca Carvalho1 ⚽
Nuninho1 ⚽
T. Oliveira1 ⚽
Cards Given
VarzimBoloto3 🟨
3 🟨
R. Oliveira2 🟨
J. Couto1 🟨
Jordao1 🟨
Kaua Vinicius1 🟨
Trofense9 🟨
S. Ufala4 🟨
J. Gunjo4 🟨
T. Oliveira3 🟨
J. Oliveira2 🟨
P. Teixeira2 🟨