Gainsborough Trinity vs Lancaster City — Non League Premier - Northern
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Gainsborough Trinity and Lancaster City meet in the Non League Premier - Northern 2026 season on 14 November 2026. Gainsborough Trinity have recorded 11 wins from 23 matches this season (48% win rate), averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 61% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 70%; and clean sheets in 22% of games. Lancaster City have won 33% of their 21 matches, with 1.24 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 62%, Over 2.5 at 62%, and clean sheets at 19%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.89 for Gainsborough Trinity and 1.37 for Lancaster City. The models give Gainsborough Trinity a 52% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Lancaster City win at 25%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 63% and BTTS at 63%.
Season Statistics
Gainsborough Trinity—
Lancaster City4º
Position
11º
2.00
PPG
1.25
64%
Win %
38%
2.21
Goals / game
1.25
1.21
Conceded / game
1.81
61%
BTTS %
62%
22%
Clean sheet %
19%
70%
Over 2.5 %
62%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Gainsborough Trinity
Home (7)
—
Lancaster City
Away (8)
1.71
PPG
1.25
57%
Win %
38%
1.86
Goals / game
1.50
1.14
Conceded / game
2.13
33%
BTTS %
64%
33%
Clean sheet %
18%
58%
Over 2.5 %
64%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Gainsborough Trinity | Home | Away | Lancaster City | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 78% | 58% | 100% | 81% | 80% | 82% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 65% | 58% | 73% | 38% | 30% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 35% | 33% | 36% | 5% | 0% | 9% |
| Failed To Score | 22% | 42% | 0% | 19% | 20% | 18% |
Goals Conceded
| Gainsborough Trinity | Home | Away | Lancaster City | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 78% | 67% | 91% | 81% | 80% | 82% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 43% | 42% | 45% | 52% | 60% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 17% | 25% | 9% | 24% | 10% | 36% |
| Clean Sheets | 22% | 33% | 9% | 19% | 20% | 18% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Gainsborough Trinity | Lancaster City | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 33% |
| Over 4.5 | 26% | 14% |
| BTTS | 61% | 62% |
| BTTS & Win | 30% | 14% |
| BTTS & Draw | 17% | 19% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 52% | 57% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 17% | 5% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Gainsborough Trinity | Lancaster City | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 30% | 24% |
| Draw 1st Half | 48% | 43% |
| Loss 1st Half | 22% | 33% |
| Scored 1st Half | 48% | 57% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 43% | 62% |
| Win 2nd Half | 48% | 24% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 30% | 33% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 22% | 43% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 65% | 48% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 61% | 52% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 70% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 43% | 38% |
Recent Venue Form
Gainsborough Trinity (H)W
Hyde United4–0
Hyde United4–0W
Ilkeston Town3–1
Ilkeston Town3–1L
Anstey Nomads2–3
Anstey Nomads2–3W
Leamington3–0
Leamington3–0L
Avro0–2
Avro0–2L
Cleethorpes Town0–3
Cleethorpes Town0–3Lancaster City (A)L
AFC Emley0–1
AFC Emley0–1D
Warrington Town2–2
Warrington Town2–2LAvro3–5
Avro3–5W
Whitby Town2–1
Whitby Town2–1LCleethorpes Town1–5
Cleethorpes Town1–5L
Bradford (Park Avenue)0–1
Bradford (Park Avenue)0–1Head to Head · 14 matches
6
Gainsborough Trinity
43%
1
Draws
7%
7
Lancaster City
50%
79%
Over 1.5
11/14
64%
Over 2.5
9/14
21%
Over 3.5
3/14
57%
BTTS
8/14
11/04/26Gainsborough Trinity
Lancaster City
3–0Gainsborough Trinity23/08/25Lancaster City
Gainsborough Trinity
0–0Lancaster City14/12/24Gainsborough Trinity
Lancaster City
1–2Gainsborough Trinity07/09/24Lancaster City
Gainsborough Trinity
1–2Lancaster City06/04/24Gainsborough Trinity
Lancaster City
2–1Gainsborough Trinity04/11/23Lancaster City
Gainsborough Trinity
1–0Lancaster City08/04/23Gainsborough Trinity
Lancaster City
1–2Gainsborough Trinity29/10/22Gainsborough Trinity
Lancaster City
3–2Gainsborough Trinity27/08/22Lancaster City
Gainsborough Trinity
0–2Lancaster City26/02/22Lancaster City
Gainsborough Trinity
3–1Lancaster City13/11/21Lancaster City
Gainsborough Trinity
1–2Lancaster City02/10/21Gainsborough Trinity
Lancaster City
0–2Gainsborough Trinity07/03/20Gainsborough Trinity
Lancaster City
0–1Gainsborough Trinity31/08/19Lancaster City
Gainsborough Trinity
2–4Lancaster City| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Redcar Athletic | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | +20 | 34 |
| 2 | Cleethorpes Town | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | +22 | 30 |
| 3 |  Guiseley AFC | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | +15 | 28 |
| 4 | Gainsborough Trinity | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | +14 | 28 |
| 5 | Avro | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | +10 | 28 |
| 6 |  Workington | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | +1 | 24 |
| 7 |  Rylands | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 23 |
| 8 | Warrington Town | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | +4 | 23 |
| 9 |  Curzon Ashton | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | +7 | 22 |
| 10 |  Alfreton Town | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | +4 | 20 |
| 11 | Lancaster City | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 20 |
| 12 |  Bury | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +11 | 19 |
| 13 | Whitby Town | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 19 |
| 14 | AFC Emley | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 15 | Hyde United | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 15 |
| 16 |  Leek Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 17 |  Ashton United | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  Quorn | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 14 |
| 19 |  Stockton Town | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -10 | 12 |
| 20 |  United of Manchester | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 21 |  Bamber Bridge | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
| 22 | Ilkeston Town | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 10 |
Team Insights
Gainsborough Trinity- ●Gainsborough Trinity have won their last 5 matches.
- ●Gainsborough Trinity have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Gainsborough Trinity have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Gainsborough Trinity have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Gainsborough Trinity have won their last 4 away matches.
- ●Gainsborough Trinity failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Gainsborough Trinity have scored in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Gainsborough Trinity have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Gainsborough Trinity failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Gainsborough Trinity failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Gainsborough Trinity have won 5 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Gainsborough Trinity have scored in 7 of their 7 away matches.
Lancaster City- ●Lancaster City failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Lancaster City failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Lancaster City have lost 4 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Lancaster City failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Lancaster City have won 3 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Lancaster City have scored in 7 of their 8 away matches.
Season Schedule
Gainsborough TrinityWAWarrington Town2–1
Warrington Town2–1WHHyde United4–0
Hyde United4–0WHIlkeston Town3–1
Ilkeston Town3–1WAAFC Emley2–1
AFC Emley2–1WAWhitby Town6–2
Whitby Town6–2LHAvro0–2
Avro0–2–HCurzon Ashton27/10
Curzon Ashton27/10–HBamber Bridge31/10
Bamber Bridge31/10–ARylands07/11
Rylands07/11Lancaster CityLAAFC Emley0–1
AFC Emley0–1LHLeek Town1–2
Leek Town1–2WHStockton Town1–0
Stockton Town1–0DAWarrington Town2–2
Warrington Town2–2LAAvro3–5
Avro3–5WHIlkeston Town2–1
Ilkeston Town2–1–AUnited of Manchester31/10
United of Manchester31/10–HCleethorpes Town07/11
Cleethorpes Town07/11–AGainsborough Trinity14/11
Gainsborough Trinity14/11Top Scorers
Gainsborough TrinityH. Beeden4 ⚽
O. Ashton4 ⚽
F. Preston4 ⚽
C. Brown4 ⚽
R. Kokkinos3 ⚽
B. Blythe2 ⚽
Lancaster CityS. Yawson4 ⚽
C. Bailey3 ⚽
D. Lawson3 ⚽
J. Craig3 ⚽
S. Bailey3 ⚽
S. Sanogo2 ⚽
Cards Given
Gainsborough TrinityLancaster CityJ. Nolan1 🟨