Welling United vs Burgess Hill Town — Non League Premier - Isthmian
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Welling United and Burgess Hill Town meet in the Non League Premier - Isthmian 2026 season on 17 October 2026. Welling United have recorded 7 wins from 12 matches this season (58% win rate), averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 58% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 67%; and clean sheets in 33% of games. Burgess Hill Town have won 30% of their 10 matches, with 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 60%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 20%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.97 for Welling United and 1.04 for Burgess Hill Town. The models give Welling United a 54% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Burgess Hill Town win at 22%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 58% and BTTS at 55%.
Season Statistics
Welling United—
Burgess Hill Town2º
Position
13º
2.14
PPG
1.43
71%
Win %
29%
2.29
Goals / game
1.57
1.29
Conceded / game
1.29
58%
BTTS %
60%
33%
Clean sheet %
20%
67%
Over 2.5 %
50%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Welling United
Home (4)
—
Burgess Hill Town
Away (3)
3.00
PPG
0.67
100%
Win %
0%
2.75
Goals / game
0.67
0.25
Conceded / game
1.33
50%
BTTS %
50%
50%
Clean sheet %
0%
67%
Over 2.5 %
0%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Welling United | Home | Away | Burgess Hill | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 92% | 100% | 83% | 70% | 83% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 50% | 83% | 17% | 50% | 83% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 33% | 50% | 17% | 10% | 17% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 8% | 0% | 17% | 30% | 17% | 50% |
Goals Conceded
| Welling United | Home | Away | Burgess Hill | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 67% | 50% | 83% | 80% | 67% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 42% | 17% | 67% | 30% | 33% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 25% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 33% | 50% | 17% | 20% | 33% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Welling United | Burgess Hill | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% |
| Over 4.5 | 42% | 0% |
| BTTS | 58% | 60% |
| BTTS & Win | 25% | 20% |
| BTTS & Draw | 8% | 40% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 17% | 10% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Welling United | Burgess Hill | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 42% | 30% |
| Draw 1st Half | 33% | 40% |
| Loss 1st Half | 25% | 30% |
| Scored 1st Half | 67% | 50% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 50% | 50% |
| Win 2nd Half | 50% | 30% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 25% | 40% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 25% | 30% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 67% | 50% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 50% | 60% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 92% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 42% | 30% |
Recent Venue Form
Welling United (H)W
Wingate & Finchley4–1
Wingate & Finchley4–1W
Faversham Town2–1
Faversham Town2–1W
Ramsgate1–0
Ramsgate1–0W
Stanway Rovers4–0
Stanway Rovers4–0W
Whitehawk2–0
Whitehawk2–0W
Braintree3–2
Braintree3–2Burgess Hill (A)DWhitehawk1–1
Whitehawk1–1D
Cheshunt1–1
Cheshunt1–1L
Brentwood Town0–2
Brentwood Town0–2L
Dover0–1
Dover0–1L
Dulwich Hamlet0–2
Dulwich Hamlet0–2W
Chichester City2–0
Chichester City2–0Head to Head · 2 matches
0
Welling United
0%
0
Draws
0%
2
Burgess Hill
100%
100%
Over 1.5
2/2
100%
Over 2.5
2/2
0%
Over 3.5
0/2
100%
BTTS
2/2
07/03/26Welling United
Burgess Hill Town
2–1Welling United08/11/25Burgess Hill Town
Welling United
1–2Burgess Hill Town| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Enfield Town | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +14 | 18 |
| 2 | Welling United | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +7 | 15 |
| 3 |  Carshalton Athletic | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 |  Dartford | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 15 |
| 5 | Dulwich Hamlet | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +7 | 13 |
| 6 |  St Albans City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Leatherhead | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 |  Lewes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Chatham Town | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +4 | 12 |
| 10 | Ramsgate | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +7 | 10 |
| 11 |  Aveley | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 12 |  Eastbourne Borough | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 10 |
| 13 | Burgess Hill Town | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 14 |  Maldon & Tiptree | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 |  Cray Wanderers | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 16 | Wingate & Finchley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | Cheshunt | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 |  Whyteleafe | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 19 |  Three Bridges | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 20 | Brentwood Town | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 3 |
| 21 | Whitehawk | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 2 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -16 | 1 |
Team Insights
Welling United- ●Welling United have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Welling United have won their last 4 home matches.
- ●Welling United have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●69% of Welling United's goals have been scored at home.
- ●89% of Welling United's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●80% of Welling United's points have been earned at home.
- ●Welling United have conceded 67% of their goals in the first half.
Burgess Hill- ●Burgess Hill Town have been undefeated in their last 6 matches.
- ●Burgess Hill Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Burgess Hill Town have scored in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Burgess Hill Town have been undefeated in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Burgess Hill Town have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●82% of Burgess Hill Town's goals have been scored at home.
- ●80% of Burgess Hill Town's points have been earned at home.
- ●Burgess Hill Town have scored 55% of their goals in the first half.
- ●Burgess Hill Town have conceded 56% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Welling UnitedWHWingate & Finchley4–1
Wingate & Finchley4–1LACray Wanderers1–4
Cray Wanderers1–4WHRamsgate1–0
Ramsgate1–0WADartford3–0
Dartford3–0WHStanway Rovers4–0
Stanway Rovers4–0LALeatherhead1–4
Leatherhead1–4–HCheshunt15/09
Cheshunt15/09–HWhyteleafe03/10
Whyteleafe03/10–AMaldon & Tiptree06/10
Maldon & Tiptree06/10Burgess HillDHRamsgate2–2
Ramsgate2–2DAWhitehawk1–1
Whitehawk1–1WHDartford2–1
Dartford2–1DACheshunt1–1
Cheshunt1–1DHLeatherhead2–2
Leatherhead2–2WHWhyteleafe3–0
Whyteleafe3–0–HMaldon & Tiptree03/10
Maldon & Tiptree03/10–AWingate & Finchley06/10
Wingate & Finchley06/10–HAveley10/10
Aveley10/10Top Scorers
Welling UnitedN. Melvin-Lambert4 ⚽
R. Kingsford3 ⚽
D. Anyadike2 ⚽
A. Azeez2 ⚽
J. Ufuah1 ⚽
J. Reynolds1 ⚽
Burgess HillC. Whelpdale6 ⚽
B. Pope2 ⚽
K. Rowe2 ⚽
G. Vorster1 ⚽
L. Oliva1 ⚽
S. Fenelon1 ⚽
Cards Given
Welling UnitedL. Majoyegbe2 🟨
Burgess Hill