Chorley vs Hereford — National League - North
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Chorley and Hereford meet in the National League - North 2026 season on 7 November 2026. Chorley have recorded 7 wins from 21 matches this season (33% win rate), averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 62% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 62%; and clean sheets in 14% of games. Hereford have won 50% of their 18 matches, with 1.61 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 44%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 39%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.50 for Chorley and 1.55 for Hereford. The models give Chorley a 35% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Hereford win at 39%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 59% and BTTS at 61%.
Season Statistics
Chorley—
Hereford13º
Position
1º
1.42
PPG
2.17
42%
Win %
67%
1.67
Goals / game
2.00
1.75
Conceded / game
0.58
62%
BTTS %
44%
14%
Clean sheet %
39%
62%
Over 2.5 %
50%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Chorley
Home (7)
—
Hereford
Away (6)
1.86
PPG
2.17
57%
Win %
67%
2.29
Goals / game
1.83
1.71
Conceded / game
0.67
82%
BTTS %
50%
9%
Clean sheet %
40%
82%
Over 2.5 %
50%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Chorley | Home | Away | Hereford | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 71% | 82% | 60% | 83% | 75% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 38% | 55% | 20% | 39% | 38% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 10% | 9% | 10% | 22% | 25% | 20% |
| Failed To Score | 29% | 18% | 40% | 17% | 25% | 10% |
Goals Conceded
| Chorley | Home | Away | Hereford | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 86% | 91% | 80% | 61% | 63% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 48% | 55% | 40% | 22% | 13% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 14% | 18% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 10% |
| Clean Sheets | 14% | 9% | 20% | 39% | 38% | 40% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Chorley | Hereford | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 11% |
| Over 4.5 | 14% | 11% |
| BTTS | 62% | 44% |
| BTTS & Win | 24% | 11% |
| BTTS & Draw | 14% | 22% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 52% | 22% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 10% | 28% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Chorley | Hereford | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 33% | 39% |
| Draw 1st Half | 33% | 44% |
| Loss 1st Half | 33% | 17% |
| Scored 1st Half | 43% | 44% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 38% | 22% |
| Win 2nd Half | 19% | 39% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 43% | 39% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 38% | 22% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 48% | 67% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 81% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 71% | 61% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 29% | 11% |
Recent Venue Form
Chorley (H)L
Buxton2–3
Buxton2–3D
Worcester City1–1
Worcester City1–1W
AFC Telford United2–1
AFC Telford United2–1W
Spalding United2–1
Spalding United2–1W
Darlington 18835–2
Darlington 18835–2D
Brackley Town2–2
Brackley Town2–2Hereford (A)W
Macclesfield2–1
Macclesfield2–1D
Bedford Town1–1
Bedford Town1–1L
Stafford Rangers2–3
Stafford Rangers2–3W
Harborough Town3–0
Harborough Town3–0W
Southport1–0
Southport1–0W
Worksop Town3–0
Worksop Town3–0Head to Head · 11 matches
5
Chorley
45%
3
Draws
27%
3
Hereford
27%
73%
Over 1.5
8/11
45%
Over 2.5
5/11
36%
Over 3.5
4/11
64%
BTTS
7/11
20/12/25Hereford
Chorley
4–2Hereford23/08/25Chorley
Hereford
1–4Chorley14/12/24Chorley
Hereford
1–0Chorley17/08/24Hereford
Chorley
1–1Hereford09/03/24Chorley
Hereford
0–1Chorley28/10/23Hereford
Chorley
1–2Hereford07/03/23Hereford
Chorley
2–0Hereford06/12/22Chorley
Hereford
1–1Chorley29/01/22Hereford
Chorley
3–2Hereford06/11/21Chorley
Hereford
1–0Chorley21/11/20Chorley
Hereford
2–2Chorley| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +17 | 26 |
| 2 |  Oxford City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +14 | 24 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +7 | 24 |
| 4 |  South Shields | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 23 |
| 5 |  King's Lynn Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Hednesford Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 |  Chester | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 | Buxton | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Bedford Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 |  Hebburn Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 |  Morecambe | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | +6 | 17 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | +3 | 17 |
| 13 | Chorley | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Marine | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | +1 | 16 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 17 |  Scarborough Athletic | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | +1 | 15 |
| 18 |  Merthyr Town | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 19 |  Radcliffe | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -5 | 15 |
| 20 | Brackley Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 24 |  Spennymoor Town | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Team Insights
Chorley- ●Chorley failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 9 matches.
- ●Chorley have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Chorley failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Chorley have scored in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Chorley have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Chorley failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Chorley have scored in 7 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Chorley failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●80% of Chorley's goals have been scored at home.
- ●76% of Chorley's points have been earned at home.
Hereford- ●Hereford have been undefeated in their last 5 away matches.
- ●Hereford have scored in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Hereford have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Hereford have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Hereford have won 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Hereford have scored in 6 of their 6 away matches.
Season Schedule
ChorleyLHBuxton2–3
Buxton2–3WHAFC Telford United2–1
AFC Telford United2–1WHSpalding United2–1
Spalding United2–1LAKing's Lynn Town0–2
King's Lynn Town0–2WHDarlington 18835–2
Darlington 18835–2LAOxford City0–4
Oxford City0–4–ARadcliffe27/10
Radcliffe27/10–ASpennymoor Town31/10
Spennymoor Town31/10–HHereford07/11
Hereford07/11HerefordWAMacclesfield2–1
Macclesfield2–1LHHednesford Town0–1
Hednesford Town0–1DABedford Town1–1
Bedford Town1–1WHSouth Shields6–0
South Shields6–0WAHarborough Town3–0
Harborough Town3–0WHSpennymoor Town2–1
Spennymoor Town2–1–HAFC Telford United27/10
AFC Telford United27/10–HKing's Lynn Town31/10
King's Lynn Town31/10–AChorley07/11
Chorley07/11Top Scorers
ChorleyM. Calveley5 ⚽
E. Taylor5 ⚽
J. Hazelhurst3 ⚽
A. Blakeman2 ⚽
C. M. Rowe2 ⚽
M. Wilson2 ⚽
HerefordH. Iwunze9 ⚽
B. Phillips6 ⚽
A. Skinner4 ⚽
D. Waldron2 ⚽
C. Cox1 ⚽
L. Spokes1 ⚽
Cards Given
ChorleyHerefordK. Kandola1 🟨