Carlisle vs Sutton Utd — National League
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Carlisle and Sutton Utd meet in the National League 2026 season on 28 November 2026. Carlisle have recorded 10 wins from 20 matches this season (50% win rate), averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 70% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 65%; and clean sheets in 20% of games. Sutton Utd have won 48% of their 27 matches, with 1.41 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 48%, Over 2.5 at 44%, and clean sheets at 33%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.73 for Carlisle and 1.46 for Sutton Utd. The models give Carlisle a 51% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Sutton Utd win at 26%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 62% and BTTS at 63%.
Season Statistics
Carlisle—
Sutton Utd8º
Position
11º
1.63
PPG
1.50
44%
Win %
44%
2.00
Goals / game
1.25
1.44
Conceded / game
1.31
70%
BTTS %
48%
20%
Clean sheet %
33%
65%
Over 2.5 %
44%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Carlisle
Home (8)
—
Sutton Utd
Away (8)
1.50
PPG
1.38
38%
Win %
38%
2.25
Goals / game
1.25
1.75
Conceded / game
1.25
70%
BTTS %
40%
20%
Clean sheet %
40%
70%
Over 2.5 %
50%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Carlisle | Home | Away | Sutton Utd | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 85% | 80% | 90% | 75% | 72% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 65% | 70% | 60% | 43% | 44% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 35% | 30% | 40% | 18% | 17% | 20% |
| Failed To Score | 15% | 20% | 10% | 25% | 28% | 20% |
Goals Conceded
| Carlisle | Home | Away | Sutton Utd | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 80% | 80% | 80% | 64% | 67% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 40% | 50% | 30% | 39% | 39% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 10% | 20% | 0% | 11% | 6% | 20% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 20% | 20% | 36% | 33% | 40% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Carlisle | Sutton Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95% | 93% |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 82% |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 18% |
| Over 4.5 | 30% | 11% |
| BTTS | 70% | 46% |
| BTTS & Win | 35% | 18% |
| BTTS & Draw | 20% | 21% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 55% | 32% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 10% | 11% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Carlisle | Sutton Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 50% | 46% |
| Draw 1st Half | 30% | 32% |
| Loss 1st Half | 20% | 21% |
| Scored 1st Half | 65% | 50% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 45% | 36% |
| Win 2nd Half | 35% | 25% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 25% | 43% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 40% | 32% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 65% | 43% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 60% | 54% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 85% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 35% | 32% |
Recent Venue Form
Carlisle (H)W
Harrogate Town3–0
Harrogate Town3–0W
Tamworth2–1
Tamworth2–1D
Kidderminster Harriers0–0
Kidderminster Harriers0–0L
Woking2–5
Woking2–5D
Forest Green1–1
Forest Green1–1D
Southend2–2
Southend2–2Sutton Utd (A)W
Worthing3–0
Worthing3–0LHarrogate Town1–3
Harrogate Town1–3DKidderminster Harriers1–1
Kidderminster Harriers1–1LTamworth0–2
Tamworth0–2D
FC Halifax Town1–1
FC Halifax Town1–1L
Barrow0–3
Barrow0–3Head to Head · 6 matches
1
Carlisle
17%
2
Draws
33%
3
Sutton Utd
50%
100%
Over 1.5
6/6
50%
Over 2.5
3/6
17%
Over 3.5
1/6
50%
BTTS
3/6
11/04/26Sutton Utd
Carlisle
3–0Sutton Utd30/08/25Carlisle
Sutton Utd
2–1Carlisle08/05/23Carlisle
Sutton Utd
1–1Carlisle03/12/22Sutton Utd
Carlisle
1–1Sutton Utd29/01/22Sutton Utd
Carlisle
0–2Sutton Utd25/09/21Carlisle
Sutton Utd
4–0Carlisle| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boreham Wood | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | +27 | 44 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 | Southend | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | +11 | 29 |
| 4 |  AFC Fylde | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | +6 | 29 |
| 5 |  Yeovil Town | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | +15 | 28 |
| 6 | Worthing | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | +7 | 28 |
| 7 |  Altrincham | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 28 |
| 8 | Carlisle | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | +9 | 26 |
| 9 | Barrow | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | +7 | 25 |
| 10 | FC Halifax Town | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | +8 | 24 |
| 11 | Sutton Utd | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 | Woking | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | +1 | 21 |
| 13 | Kidderminster Harriers | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Aldershot Town | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| 15 |  AFC Hornchurch | 16 | 7 | 0 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 |  Eastleigh | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 |  Wealdstone | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -6 | 18 |
| 19 |  Boston United | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 18 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 17 |
| 21 |  Hartlepool | 16 | 5 | 0 | 11 | -9 | 15 |
| 22 |  Solihull Moors | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | -21 | 13 |
| 23 |  Scunthorpe | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -11 | 10 |
| 24 |  Gateshead | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | -25 | 4 |
Team Insights
Carlisle- ●Carlisle have won their last 3 matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Carlisle have won their last 4 away matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Carlisle failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored in 7 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Carlisle failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Carlisle have won 4 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored in 7 of their 8 away matches.
Sutton Utd- ●Sutton Utd have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Sutton Utd have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 2 matches.
- ●Sutton Utd failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Sutton Utd have won 3 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Sutton Utd have scored in 6 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Sutton Utd have scored 55% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
CarlisleWAAltrincham4–2
Altrincham4–2WHHarrogate Town3–0
Harrogate Town3–0WASolihull Moors2–1
Solihull Moors2–1DHKidderminster Harriers0–0
Kidderminster Harriers0–0WAAldershot Town3–1
Aldershot Town3–1WAAFC Fylde2–0
AFC Fylde2–0–HBoston United14/11
Boston United14/11–ABarrow21/11
Barrow21/11–HTamworth24/11
Tamworth24/11Sutton UtdWAWorthing3–0
Worthing3–0WHAldershot Town2–0
Aldershot Town2–0LAHarrogate Town1–3
Harrogate Town1–3LHBoreham Wood0–2
Boreham Wood0–2DAKidderminster Harriers1–1
Kidderminster Harriers1–1LATamworth0–2
Tamworth0–2–HSolihull Moors14/11
Solihull Moors14/11–HBoston United21/11
Boston United21/11–AAFC Hornchurch24/11
AFC Hornchurch24/11Top Scorers
CarlisleR. Linney7 ⚽
D. Ajiboye4 ⚽
G. Kelly4 ⚽
H. Bunker4 ⚽
M. Azeez3 ⚽
C. Whelan3 ⚽
Sutton UtdT. Babalola8 ⚽
D. Ogbonna6 ⚽
O. Mussa5 ⚽
E. Osadebe4 ⚽
C. Carter4 ⚽
S. Folarin4 ⚽
Cards Given
CarlisleR. Linney4 🟨
M. Azeez4 🟨
B. Nicholson4 🟨
A. Desbois3 🟨
J. Ellis3 🟨
M. Feeney3 🟨
Sutton UtdJ. Knight6 🟨
J. Taylor6 🟨
T. Babalola4 🟨
D. Urpens4 🟨
S. Folarin4 🟨
E. Osadebe3 🟨