Carlisle vs Tamworth — National League
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Carlisle and Tamworth meet in the National League 2026 season on 24 November 2026. Carlisle have recorded 10 wins from 20 matches this season (50% win rate), averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 70% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 65%; and clean sheets in 20% of games. Tamworth have won 39% of their 28 matches, with 1.82 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 82%, Over 2.5 at 82%, and clean sheets at 11%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 2.35 for Carlisle and 1.52 for Tamworth. The models give Carlisle a 60% win probability, with a draw at 21% and an Tamworth win at 19%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 74% and BTTS at 71%.
Season Statistics
Carlisle—
Tamworth8º
Position
20º
1.63
PPG
1.13
44%
Win %
33%
2.00
Goals / game
1.67
1.44
Conceded / game
2.13
70%
BTTS %
82%
20%
Clean sheet %
11%
65%
Over 2.5 %
82%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Carlisle
Home (8)
—
Tamworth
Away (7)
1.50
PPG
0.57
38%
Win %
14%
2.25
Goals / game
1.43
1.75
Conceded / game
3.00
70%
BTTS %
83%
20%
Clean sheet %
8%
70%
Over 2.5 %
92%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Carlisle | Home | Away | Tamworth | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 85% | 80% | 90% | 93% | 94% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 65% | 70% | 60% | 50% | 56% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 35% | 30% | 40% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Failed To Score | 15% | 20% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 8% |
Goals Conceded
| Carlisle | Home | Away | Tamworth | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 80% | 80% | 80% | 89% | 88% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 40% | 50% | 30% | 64% | 50% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 10% | 20% | 0% | 36% | 19% | 58% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 20% | 20% | 11% | 13% | 8% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Carlisle | Tamworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 89% |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 82% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 61% |
| Over 4.5 | 30% | 36% |
| BTTS | 70% | 82% |
| BTTS & Win | 35% | 29% |
| BTTS & Draw | 20% | 14% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 55% | 79% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 10% | 4% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Carlisle | Tamworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 50% | 36% |
| Draw 1st Half | 30% | 29% |
| Loss 1st Half | 20% | 36% |
| Scored 1st Half | 65% | 61% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 45% | 61% |
| Win 2nd Half | 35% | 36% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 25% | 32% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 40% | 32% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 65% | 68% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 60% | 68% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 85% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 35% | 50% |
Recent Venue Form
Carlisle (H)W
Harrogate Town3–0
Harrogate Town3–0WTamworth2–1
Tamworth2–1D
Kidderminster Harriers0–0
Kidderminster Harriers0–0L
Woking2–5
Woking2–5D
Forest Green1–1
Forest Green1–1D
Southend2–2
Southend2–2Tamworth (A)LCarlisle1–2
Carlisle1–2W
Hartlepool1–0
Hartlepool1–0L
Aldershot Town1–5
Aldershot Town1–5LSouthend1–3
Southend1–3LHarrogate Town1–3
Harrogate Town1–3L
Yeovil Town2–3
Yeovil Town2–3Head to Head · 3 matches
2
Carlisle
67%
0
Draws
0%
1
Tamworth
33%
100%
Over 1.5
3/3
100%
Over 2.5
3/3
0%
Over 3.5
0/3
100%
BTTS
3/3
17/10/26Tamworth
Carlisle
2–1Tamworth14/03/26Carlisle
Tamworth
2–1Carlisle29/11/25Tamworth
Carlisle
2–1Tamworth| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boreham Wood | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | +27 | 44 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 | Southend | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | +11 | 29 |
| 4 |  AFC Fylde | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | +6 | 29 |
| 5 | Yeovil Town | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | +15 | 28 |
| 6 |  Worthing | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | +7 | 28 |
| 7 |  Altrincham | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 28 |
| 8 | Carlisle | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | +9 | 26 |
| 9 |  Barrow | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | +7 | 25 |
| 10 |  FC Halifax Town | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | +8 | 24 |
| 11 |  Sutton Utd | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 | Woking | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | +1 | 21 |
| 13 | Kidderminster Harriers | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 21 |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| 15 |  AFC Hornchurch | 16 | 7 | 0 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 |  Eastleigh | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 |  Wealdstone | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -6 | 18 |
| 19 |  Boston United | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 18 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 17 |
| 21 | Hartlepool | 16 | 5 | 0 | 11 | -9 | 15 |
| 22 |  Solihull Moors | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | -21 | 13 |
| 23 |  Scunthorpe | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -11 | 10 |
| 24 |  Gateshead | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | -25 | 4 |
Team Insights
Carlisle- ●Carlisle have won their last 3 matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Carlisle have won their last 4 away matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Carlisle failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored in 7 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Carlisle failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Carlisle have won 4 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored in 7 of their 8 away matches.
Tamworth- ●Tamworth have scored in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Tamworth failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Tamworth have scored in 7 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Tamworth failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Tamworth have lost 5 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Tamworth have scored in 7 of their 7 away matches.
- ●66% of Tamworth's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●76% of Tamworth's points have been earned at home.
Season Schedule
CarlisleWAAltrincham4–2
Altrincham4–2WHHarrogate Town3–0
Harrogate Town3–0WASolihull Moors2–1
Solihull Moors2–1DHKidderminster Harriers0–0
Kidderminster Harriers0–0WAAldershot Town3–1
Aldershot Town3–1WAAFC Fylde2–0
AFC Fylde2–0–HBoston United14/11
Boston United14/11–ABarrow21/11
Barrow21/11–HTamworth24/11
Tamworth24/11TamworthLHWoking0–1
Woking0–1WHScunthorpe4–1
Scunthorpe4–1LHBarrow1–2
Barrow1–2WAHartlepool1–0
Hartlepool1–0WHSutton Utd2–0
Sutton Utd2–0LAAldershot Town1–5
Aldershot Town1–5–AAFC Hornchurch14/11
AFC Hornchurch14/11–HEastleigh21/11
Eastleigh21/11–ACarlisle24/11
Carlisle24/11Top Scorers
CarlisleR. Linney7 ⚽
D. Ajiboye4 ⚽
G. Kelly4 ⚽
H. Bunker4 ⚽
M. Azeez3 ⚽
C. Whelan3 ⚽
TamworthK. Donnelly11 ⚽
D. Creaney5 ⚽
J. Hutchinson5 ⚽
T. McGlinchey4 ⚽
T. Kurtaran4 ⚽
M. Roberts3 ⚽
Cards Given
CarlisleR. Linney4 🟨
M. Azeez4 🟨
B. Nicholson4 🟨
A. Desbois3 🟨
J. Ellis3 🟨
M. Feeney3 🟨
TamworthJ. Rye4 🟨
T. Kurtaran4 🟨
L. Fairlamb3 🟨
D. Creaney3 🟨
J. Cullinane-Liburd3 🟨
K. Donnelly3 🟨