Barrow vs Carlisle — National League
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Barrow and Carlisle meet in the National League 2026 season on 21 November 2026. Barrow have recorded 11 wins from 20 matches this season (55% win rate), averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 45% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 50%; and clean sheets in 45% of games. Carlisle have won 44% of their 18 matches, with 1.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 72%, Over 2.5 at 61%, and clean sheets at 17%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.45 for Barrow and 1.27 for Carlisle. The models give Barrow a 40% win probability, with a draw at 27% and an Carlisle win at 33%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 51% and BTTS at 55%.
Season Statistics
Barrow—
Carlisle9º
Position
11º
1.62
PPG
1.43
46%
Win %
36%
1.69
Goals / game
1.79
1.23
Conceded / game
1.50
45%
BTTS %
72%
45%
Clean sheet %
17%
50%
Over 2.5 %
61%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Barrow
Home (6)
—
Carlisle
Away (7)
2.00
PPG
1.57
67%
Win %
43%
1.83
Goals / game
1.43
0.83
Conceded / game
1.00
40%
BTTS %
67%
60%
Clean sheet %
22%
60%
Over 2.5 %
56%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Barrow | Home | Away | Carlisle | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 80% | 90% | 70% | 83% | 78% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 55% | 60% | 50% | 61% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 20% | 30% | 10% | 28% | 22% | 33% |
| Failed To Score | 20% | 10% | 30% | 17% | 22% | 11% |
Goals Conceded
| Barrow | Home | Away | Carlisle | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 55% | 40% | 70% | 83% | 89% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 35% | 30% | 40% | 39% | 56% | 22% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 5% | 10% | 0% | 11% | 22% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 45% | 60% | 30% | 17% | 11% | 22% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Barrow | Carlisle | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 89% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 39% |
| Over 4.5 | 10% | 28% |
| BTTS | 45% | 72% |
| BTTS & Win | 20% | 33% |
| BTTS & Draw | 15% | 22% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 40% | 56% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 10% | 6% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Barrow | Carlisle | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 20% | 50% |
| Draw 1st Half | 70% | 28% |
| Loss 1st Half | 10% | 22% |
| Scored 1st Half | 35% | 61% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 25% | 44% |
| Win 2nd Half | 50% | 28% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 25% | 28% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 25% | 44% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 65% | 61% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 45% | 61% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 45% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 30% | 33% |
Recent Venue Form
Barrow (H)D
Gloucester City0–0
Gloucester City0–0W
Wealdstone2–1
Wealdstone2–1W
Scunthorpe3–0
Scunthorpe3–0W
Aldershot Town1–0
Aldershot Town1–0W
Sutton Utd3–0
Sutton Utd3–0L
Yeovil Town1–2
Yeovil Town1–2Carlisle (A)W
Solihull Moors2–1
Solihull Moors2–1WAldershot Town3–1
Aldershot Town3–1W
AFC Fylde2–0
AFC Fylde2–0L
Eastleigh0–1
Eastleigh0–1L
Boreham Wood1–2
Boreham Wood1–2DWealdstone1–1
Wealdstone1–1Head to Head · 9 matches
1
Barrow
11%
2
Draws
22%
6
Carlisle
67%
44%
Over 1.5
4/9
33%
Over 2.5
3/9
22%
Over 3.5
2/9
33%
BTTS
3/9
27/02/25Carlisle
Barrow
0–1Carlisle17/08/24Barrow
Carlisle
1–0Barrow22/04/23Carlisle
Barrow
0–1Carlisle31/01/23Barrow
Carlisle
5–1Barrow18/10/22Carlisle
Barrow
2–0Carlisle19/03/22Carlisle
Barrow
1–2Carlisle13/11/21Barrow
Carlisle
0–0Barrow10/04/21Carlisle
Barrow
2–2Carlisle03/10/20Barrow
Carlisle
1–0Barrow| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | +25 | 38 |
| 2 |  Harrogate Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +14 | 31 |
| 3 |  Southend | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +12 | 28 |
| 4 |  Worthing | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +10 | 27 |
| 5 |  Altrincham | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | +2 | 27 |
| 6 | Yeovil Town | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +16 | 25 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +2 | 23 |
| 8 |  FC Halifax Town | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | +7 | 21 |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 21 |
| 10 |  AFC Hornchurch | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 21 |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +4 | 20 |
| 12 |  Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +2 | 20 |
| 13 |  Woking | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | +1 | 18 |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | +1 | 18 |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 18 |
| 16 | Sutton Utd | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 18 |
| 17 |  Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 19 |  Hartlepool | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | -6 | 15 |
| 20 |  Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 14 |
| 21 |  Boston United | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 24 |  Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Team Insights
Barrow- ●Barrow have won their last 5 matches.
- ●Barrow have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Barrow have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Barrow have won their last 4 home matches.
- ●Barrow have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Barrow have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Barrow failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Barrow have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Barrow have scored in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Barrow failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Barrow have scored in 5 of their 7 away matches.
- ●69% of Barrow's goals conceded were conceded away.
Carlisle- ●Carlisle have been undefeated in their last 4 matches.
- ●Carlisle have failed to win in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Carlisle have won their last 3 away matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Carlisle failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored in 6 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Carlisle failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Carlisle have won 3 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●67% of Carlisle's goals conceded were conceded at home.
Season Schedule
BarrowWATamworth2–1
Tamworth2–1WHWealdstone2–1
Wealdstone2–1WHScunthorpe3–0
Scunthorpe3–0WASouthend4–2
Southend4–2WHAldershot Town1–0
Aldershot Town1–0LASolihull Moors0–1
Solihull Moors0–1–AFC Halifax Town27/10
FC Halifax Town27/10–HEastleigh31/10
Eastleigh31/10–AGateshead14/11
Gateshead14/11CarlisleWASolihull Moors2–1
Solihull Moors2–1DHKidderminster Harriers0–0
Kidderminster Harriers0–0WAAldershot Town3–1
Aldershot Town3–1WAAFC Fylde2–0
AFC Fylde2–0LHWoking2–5
Woking2–5LAEastleigh0–1
Eastleigh0–1–HHarrogate Town28/10
Harrogate Town28/10–AAltrincham31/10
Altrincham31/10–HBoston United14/11
Boston United14/11Top Scorers
BarrowR. Harper7 ⚽
I. Cameron4 ⚽
3 ⚽
A. Reid3 ⚽
B. Whitfield2 ⚽
K. Ward2 ⚽
CarlisleR. Linney7 ⚽
G. Kelly4 ⚽
H. Bunker4 ⚽
D. Ajiboye4 ⚽
M. Azeez3 ⚽
M. Obiero2 ⚽
Cards Given
BarrowM. Williams6 🟨
P. Kalambayi5 🟨
I. Marriott5 🟨
S. Smith4 🟨
G. Walker3 🟨
A. Allen3 🟨
CarlisleR. Linney4 🟨
B. Nicholson3 🟨
M. Azeez3 🟨
M. Feeney3 🟨
J. Ellis3 🟨
A. Desbois2 🟨