Carlisle vs Harrogate Town — National League
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Carlisle and Harrogate Town meet in the National League 2026 season on 28 October 2026. Carlisle have recorded 8 wins from 18 matches this season (44% win rate), averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 72% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 61%; and clean sheets in 17% of games. Harrogate Town have won 71% of their 21 matches, with 2.14 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 76%, Over 2.5 at 76%, and clean sheets at 24%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.70 for Carlisle and 1.60 for Harrogate Town. The models give Carlisle a 42% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Harrogate Town win at 33%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 64% and BTTS at 65%.
Season Statistics
Carlisle—
Harrogate Town11º
Position
2º
1.43
PPG
2.21
36%
Win %
71%
1.79
Goals / game
2.29
1.50
Conceded / game
1.29
72%
BTTS %
76%
17%
Clean sheet %
24%
61%
Over 2.5 %
76%
0.0
Avg corners
7.0
0.0
Avg shots
22.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
7.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
2.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
57.0%
Home vs Away
Carlisle
Home (7)
—
Harrogate Town
Away (6)
1.29
PPG
2.00
29%
Win %
67%
2.14
Goals / game
1.50
2.00
Conceded / game
1.33
78%
BTTS %
60%
11%
Clean sheet %
40%
67%
Over 2.5 %
50%
0.0
Avg corners
7.0
0.0
Avg shots
22.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
7.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
2.0
0.0%
Avg possession
57.0%
Goals Scored
| Carlisle | Home | Away | Harrogate Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 83% | 78% | 89% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 61% | 67% | 56% | 67% | 91% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 28% | 22% | 33% | 33% | 55% | 10% |
| Failed To Score | 17% | 22% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Carlisle | Home | Away | Harrogate Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 83% | 89% | 78% | 76% | 91% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 39% | 56% | 22% | 29% | 36% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 11% | 22% | 0% | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Clean Sheets | 17% | 11% | 22% | 24% | 9% | 40% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Carlisle | Harrogate Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 76% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 48% |
| Over 4.5 | 28% | 14% |
| BTTS | 72% | 76% |
| BTTS & Win | 33% | 48% |
| BTTS & Draw | 22% | 14% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 56% | 71% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 6% | 5% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Carlisle | Harrogate Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 50% | 48% |
| Draw 1st Half | 28% | 38% |
| Loss 1st Half | 22% | 14% |
| Scored 1st Half | 61% | 67% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 44% | 38% |
| Win 2nd Half | 28% | 62% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 28% | 19% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 44% | 19% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 61% | 76% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 61% | 48% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 83% | 76% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 33% | 43% |
Recent Venue Form
Carlisle (H)W
Tamworth2–1
Tamworth2–1D
Kidderminster Harriers0–0
Kidderminster Harriers0–0L
Woking2–5
Woking2–5D
Forest Green1–1
Forest Green1–1D
Southend2–2
Southend2–2W
Scunthorpe4–2
Scunthorpe4–2Harrogate Town (A)D
Bury1–1
Bury1–1WWoking1–0
Woking1–0W
Hartlepool1–0
Hartlepool1–0L
Boreham Wood1–4
Boreham Wood1–4WScunthorpe2–0
Scunthorpe2–0L
Aldershot Town1–3
Aldershot Town1–3Team Corners
| Team Corners | Carlisle | Harrogate Town |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 0.0 | 7.0 |
| Corners Against / Match | 0.0 | 7.0 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 0% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 0% | 100% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 0% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 0% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 0% | 100% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 0% | 100% |
Head to Head · 12 matches
2
Carlisle
17%
3
Draws
25%
7
Harrogate Town
58%
58%
Over 1.5
7/12
17%
Over 2.5
2/12
8%
Over 3.5
1/12
25%
BTTS
3/12
26/07/25Carlisle
Harrogate Town
0–2Carlisle08/03/25Carlisle
Harrogate Town
1–0Carlisle19/10/24Harrogate Town
Carlisle
1–1Harrogate Town14/11/23Harrogate Town
Carlisle
2–0Harrogate Town08/08/23Carlisle
Harrogate Town
1–0Carlisle04/02/23Harrogate Town
Carlisle
0–1Harrogate Town08/11/22Carlisle
Harrogate Town
3–3Carlisle23/04/22Carlisle
Harrogate Town
3–0Carlisle04/01/22Carlisle
Harrogate Town
1–0Carlisle23/11/21Harrogate Town
Carlisle
0–2Harrogate Town24/04/21Harrogate Town
Carlisle
1–1Harrogate Town16/02/21Carlisle
Harrogate Town
1–0Carlisle| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | +25 | 38 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +14 | 31 |
| 3 | Southend | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +12 | 28 |
| 4 |  Worthing | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +10 | 27 |
| 5 |  Altrincham | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | +2 | 27 |
| 6 |  Yeovil Town | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +16 | 25 |
| 7 |  AFC Fylde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +2 | 23 |
| 8 |  FC Halifax Town | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | +7 | 21 |
| 9 |  Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 21 |
| 10 |  AFC Hornchurch | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 21 |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +4 | 20 |
| 12 | Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +2 | 20 |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | +1 | 18 |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | +1 | 18 |
| 15 |  Eastleigh | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 18 |
| 16 |  Sutton Utd | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 18 |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 18 |  Wealdstone | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | -6 | 15 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 14 |
| 21 |  Boston United | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 10 |
| 23 |  Solihull Moors | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 24 |  Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Team Insights
Carlisle- ●Carlisle have been undefeated in their last 4 matches.
- ●Carlisle have failed to win in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Carlisle have won their last 3 away matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Carlisle failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored in 6 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Carlisle failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Carlisle have won 3 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●67% of Carlisle's goals conceded were conceded at home.
Harrogate Town- ●Harrogate Town have won their last 5 matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have scored in each of their last 14 matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have scored in each of their last 8 home matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 away matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have scored in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Harrogate Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have scored in 8 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have won 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have scored in 6 of their 6 away matches.
- ●72% of Harrogate Town's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
CarlisleWASolihull Moors2–1
Solihull Moors2–1DHKidderminster Harriers0–0
Kidderminster Harriers0–0WAAldershot Town3–1
Aldershot Town3–1WAAFC Fylde2–0
AFC Fylde2–0LHWoking2–5
Woking2–5LAEastleigh0–1
Eastleigh0–1–HHarrogate Town28/10
Harrogate Town28/10–AAltrincham31/10
Altrincham31/10–HBoston United14/11
Boston United14/11Harrogate TownWHSutton Utd3–1
Sutton Utd3–1WAWoking1–0
Woking1–0WHAFC Hornchurch3–0
AFC Hornchurch3–0WAHartlepool1–0
Hartlepool1–0WHEastleigh4–1
Eastleigh4–1LABoreham Wood1–4
Boreham Wood1–4–ACarlisle28/10
Carlisle28/10–AForest Green31/10
Forest Green31/10–HAltrincham14/11
Altrincham14/11Top Scorers
CarlisleR. Linney7 ⚽
G. Kelly4 ⚽
H. Bunker4 ⚽
D. Ajiboye4 ⚽
M. Azeez3 ⚽
M. Obiero2 ⚽
Harrogate TownB. Hobson8 ⚽
W. McGowan4 ⚽
J. Hmami4 ⚽
C. McGuckin3 ⚽
C. Heffernan3 ⚽
B. Dolaghan3 ⚽
Cards Given
CarlisleR. Linney4 🟨
B. Nicholson3 🟨
M. Azeez3 🟨
M. Feeney3 🟨
J. Ellis3 🟨
A. Desbois2 🟨
Harrogate TownJ. Hmami3 🟨
M. Williams3 🟨
L. Cass2 🟨
A. Baptiste2 🟨
L. Barnes2 🟨
S. McCoulsky2 🟨