Harrogate Town vs AFC Hornchurch — National League
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Harrogate Town and AFC Hornchurch meet in the National League 2026 season on 3 October 2026. Harrogate Town have recorded 9 wins from 12 matches this season (75% win rate), averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 83% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 83%; and clean sheets in 17% of games. AFC Hornchurch have won 59% of their 17 matches, with 1.76 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 47%, Over 2.5 at 71%, and clean sheets at 41%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 2.15 for Harrogate Town and 1.52 for AFC Hornchurch. The models give Harrogate Town a 51% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an AFC Hornchurch win at 26%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 71% and BTTS at 69%.
Season Statistics
Harrogate TownAFC HornchurchHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| Harrogate Town | Home | Away | AFC Hornchurch | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 100% | 100% | 100% | 82% | 82% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 83% | 100% | 67% | 59% | 55% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 25% | 33% | 17% | 35% | 36% | 33% |
| Failed To Score | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18% | 18% | 17% |
Goals Conceded
| Harrogate Town | Home | Away | AFC Hornchurch | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 83% | 100% | 67% | 59% | 45% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 33% | 50% | 17% | 29% | 9% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 8% | 0% | 17% | 18% | 0% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 17% | 0% | 33% | 41% | 55% | 17% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Harrogate Town | AFC Hornchurch | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 82% |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 24% |
| Over 4.5 | 8% | 18% |
| BTTS | 83% | 47% |
| BTTS & Win | 58% | 24% |
| BTTS & Draw | 17% | 6% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 83% | 41% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 29% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Harrogate Town | AFC Hornchurch | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 42% | 41% |
| Draw 1st Half | 42% | 29% |
| Loss 1st Half | 17% | 29% |
| Scored 1st Half | 58% | 53% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 42% | 41% |
| Win 2nd Half | 75% | 47% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 17% | 29% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 8% | 24% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 92% | 59% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 50% | 41% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 75% | 76% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 42% | 29% |
Recent Venue Form
Harrogate Town (H)
Tamworth3–1
Gateshead2–1
Barrow2–2
Solihull Moors5–2
Scarborough Athletic2–1
Doncaster2–2AFC Hornchurch (A)
FC Halifax Town0–3
Boston United3–2
Carlisle1–4Barrow2–1
Enfield Town2–4
Redbridge3–0| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boreham Wood | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 17 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +8 | 16 |
| 3 |  AFC Fylde | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 14 |
| 4 |  Kidderminster Harriers | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 |  Southend | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Aldershot Town | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 |  Forest Green | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 8 | AFC Hornchurch | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Sutton Utd | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Yeovil Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 |  Eastleigh | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Carlisle | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 13 | FC Halifax Town | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 14 |  Hartlepool | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 |  Altrincham | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 |  Worthing | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 17 |  Wealdstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 18 |  Scunthorpe | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 19 |  Woking | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 20 | Boston United | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 21 | Barrow | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 22 | Tamworth | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 23 | Gateshead | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 24 | Solihull Moors | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Team Insights
Harrogate Town- ●Harrogate Town have won their last 3 matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●67% of Harrogate Town's goals have been scored at home.
- ●Harrogate Town have conceded 60% of their goals in the first half.
AFC Hornchurch- ●AFC Hornchurch have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●91% of AFC Hornchurch's goals conceded were conceded away.
Season Schedule
Harrogate TownTamworth3–1Scunthorpe2–0Gateshead2–1Aldershot Town1–3Barrow2–2Wealdstone3–1AFC Fylde15/09Boreham Wood19/09Eastleigh26/09AFC HornchurchFC Halifax Town0–3Forest Green0–1Boston United3–2Woking1–0Carlisle1–4Barrow2–1Worthing15/09Scunthorpe19/09Altrincham26/09Top Scorers
Harrogate TownAFC HornchurchCards Given
Harrogate TownAFC Hornchurch