Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán — Liga de Expansión MX
← Back
vs
–
–
Estadio Jalisco·Guadalajara·Mexico·56,713
🔒 Pro Feature
Unlock all Match Predictions
Full mathematical models, value detection and advanced filters across every league.
from€8.99/mo
billed annually · cancel anytime
Leones Negros UDG and Tepatitlán meet in the Liga de Expansión MX 2026 season on 1 November 2026. Leones Negros UDG have recorded 8 wins from 15 matches this season (53% win rate), averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 67% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 67%; and clean sheets in 20% of games. Tepatitlán have won 14% of their 14 matches, with 0.71 goals scored and 2.93 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 43%, Over 2.5 at 71%, and clean sheets at 0%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.94 for Leones Negros UDG and 1.38 for Tepatitlán. The models give Leones Negros UDG a 55% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Tepatitlán win at 22%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 65% and BTTS at 64%.
Season Statistics
Leones Negros UDG—
Tepatitlán5º
Position
16º
2.00
PPG
0.00
67%
Win %
0%
2.33
Goals / game
0.33
1.67
Conceded / game
3.00
67%
BTTS %
43%
20%
Clean sheet %
0%
67%
Over 2.5 %
71%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Leones Negros UDG
Home (1)
—
Tepatitlán
Away (1)
0.00
PPG
0.00
0%
Win %
0%
1.00
Goals / game
1.00
3.00
Conceded / game
3.00
71%
BTTS %
33%
14%
Clean sheet %
0%
86%
Over 2.5 %
83%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Leones Negros | Home | Away | Tepatitlán | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 87% | 86% | 88% | 43% | 50% | 33% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 60% | 43% | 75% | 14% | 25% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 27% | 29% | 25% | 14% | 25% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 13% | 14% | 13% | 57% | 50% | 67% |
Goals Conceded
| Leones Negros | Home | Away | Tepatitlán | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 80% | 86% | 75% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 47% | 71% | 25% | 64% | 50% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 20% | 43% | 0% | 57% | 38% | 83% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 14% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Leones Negros | Tepatitlán | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 64% |
| Over 4.5 | 13% | 43% |
| BTTS | 67% | 43% |
| BTTS & Win | 33% | 14% |
| BTTS & Draw | 20% | 7% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 53% | 36% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 13% | 36% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Leones Negros | Tepatitlán | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 53% | 21% |
| Draw 1st Half | 20% | 29% |
| Loss 1st Half | 27% | 50% |
| Scored 1st Half | 73% | 36% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 47% | 50% |
| Win 2nd Half | 27% | 7% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 40% | 7% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 33% | 86% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 53% | 14% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 60% | 100% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 93% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 60% | 36% |
Recent Venue Form
Leones Negros (H)L
Alebrijes de Oaxaca1–2
Alebrijes de Oaxaca1–2W
Dorados6–3
Dorados6–3D
CA La Paz2–2
CA La Paz2–2D
Piratas1–1
Piratas1–1W
CDS Tampico Madero4–0
CDS Tampico Madero4–0L
Correcaminos Uat1–3
Correcaminos Uat1–3Tepatitlán (A)LPiratas0–3
Piratas0–3L
Tapatío1–4
Tapatío1–4L
Venados FC0–5
Venados FC0–5L
Cruz Azul Hidalgo0–6
Cruz Azul Hidalgo0–6LAlebrijes de Oaxaca0–1
Alebrijes de Oaxaca0–1LCorrecaminos Uat1–3
Correcaminos Uat1–3Head to Head · 16 matches
7
Leones Negros
44%
5
Draws
31%
4
Tepatitlán
25%
69%
Over 1.5
11/16
50%
Over 2.5
8/16
19%
Over 3.5
3/16
63%
BTTS
10/16
15/02/26Tepatitlán
Leones Negros UDG
0–0Tepatitlán07/09/25Leones Negros UDG
Tepatitlán
1–1Leones Negros UDG27/04/25Tepatitlán
Leones Negros UDG
2–1Tepatitlán25/04/25Leones Negros UDG
Tepatitlán
2–1Leones Negros UDG01/03/25Leones Negros UDG
Tepatitlán
1–1Leones Negros UDG15/09/24Tepatitlán
Leones Negros UDG
1–0Tepatitlán11/04/24Tepatitlán
Leones Negros UDG
3–2Tepatitlán13/08/23Leones Negros UDG
Tepatitlán
0–0Leones Negros UDG15/07/23Tepatitlán
Leones Negros UDG
3–1Tepatitlán28/04/23Leones Negros UDG
Tepatitlán
0–1Leones Negros UDG19/02/23Leones Negros UDG
Tepatitlán
1–1Leones Negros UDG11/07/22Tepatitlán
Leones Negros UDG
3–0Tepatitlán09/03/22Tepatitlán
Leones Negros UDG
2–1Tepatitlán18/11/21Leones Negros UDG
Tepatitlán
2–1Leones Negros UDG15/03/21Tepatitlán
Leones Negros UDG
0–1Tepatitlán17/11/20Leones Negros UDG
Tepatitlán
3–2Leones Negros UDG| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +13 | 24 |
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +10 | 24 |
| 3 |  Monarcas | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | +8 | 23 |
| 4 |  Cancún | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 | Piratas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 | Venados FC | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +5 | 21 |
| 7 |  Durango | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +5 | 21 |
| 8 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mineros de Zacatecas | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | +3 | 18 |
| 10 | Tapatío | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 11 | Dorados | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Correcaminos Uat | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 13 |  Tlaxcala | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 14 | CDS Tampico Madero | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -31 | 7 |
Team Insights
Leones Negros- ●Leones Negros UDG have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Leones Negros UDG have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Leones Negros UDG have been undefeated in their last 3 away matches.
- ●Leones Negros UDG failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Leones Negros UDG have scored in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Leones Negros UDG failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Leones Negros UDG have won 6 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Leones Negros UDG have scored in 7 of their 8 away matches.
- ●70% of Leones Negros UDG's points have been earned away.
- ●Leones Negros UDG have scored 58% of their goals in the first half.
Tepatitlán- ●Tepatitlán have failed to win in their last 4 matches.
- ●Tepatitlán have lost their last 3 matches.
- ●Tepatitlán failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 14 matches.
- ●Tepatitlán have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Tepatitlán failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 8 home matches.
- ●Tepatitlán have lost their last 6 away matches.
- ●Tepatitlán failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Tepatitlán have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Tepatitlán failed to keep a clean sheet in 8 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Tepatitlán have lost 5 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Tepatitlán failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Tepatitlán have lost 6 of their 6 away matches.
- ●80% of Tepatitlán's goals have been scored at home.
- ●100% of Tepatitlán's points have been earned at home.
Season Schedule
Leones NegrosWAMineros de Zacatecas2–0
Mineros de Zacatecas2–0LHAlebrijes de Oaxaca1–2
Alebrijes de Oaxaca1–2DAVenados FC1–1
Venados FC1–1WHDorados6–3
Dorados6–3WACruz Azul Hidalgo2–1
Cruz Azul Hidalgo2–1LAMonarcas0–2
Monarcas0–2–HTepatitlán01/11
Tepatitlán01/11TepatitlánLHCancún0–4
Cancún0–4LAPiratas0–3
Piratas0–3LATapatío1–4
Tapatío1–4DHMonarcas1–1
Monarcas1–1WHCDS Tampico Madero3–1
CDS Tampico Madero3–1LHMineros de Zacatecas0–1
Mineros de Zacatecas0–1–ALeones Negros UDG01/11
Leones Negros UDG01/11Top Scorers
Leones NegrosL. Razo6 ⚽
O. Gil5 ⚽
J. Marchand3 ⚽
A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago3 ⚽
J. Brigido3 ⚽
S. A. Hernandez3 ⚽
TepatitlánJ. Cruz2 ⚽
B. Casas1 ⚽
F. Sanguinetti1 ⚽
G. Olvera1 ⚽
J. Sanchez1 ⚽
L. Egurrola1 ⚽
Cards Given
Leones NegrosJ. Escalante8 🟨
J. Aguayo7 🟨
U. Torres6 🟨
A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago5 🟨
O. Gonzalez4 🟨
J. Marchand3 🟨
TepatitlánG. Olvera6 🟨
G. Baez5 🟨
F. Sanguinetti5 🟨
J. Cruz5 🟨
J. Sanchez4 🟨
E. Martinez3 🟨