Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Segunda Liga
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Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril·Penafiel·Portugal·6,500
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Penafiel and Lusitânia Lourosa meet in the Segunda Liga 2026 season on 15 November 2026. Penafiel have recorded 6 wins from 14 matches this season (43% win rate), averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 64%; and clean sheets in 21% of games. Lusitânia Lourosa have won 50% of their 16 matches, with 1.44 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 50%, Over 2.5 at 44%, and clean sheets at 31%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.56 for Penafiel and 1.31 for Lusitânia Lourosa. The models give Penafiel a 42% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Lusitânia Lourosa win at 31%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 51% and BTTS at 54%.
Season Statistics
Penafiel—
Lusitânia Lourosa3º
Position
2º
2.00
PPG
2.43
63%
Win %
71%
2.25
Goals / game
1.71
1.00
Conceded / game
0.71
50%
BTTS %
50%
21%
Clean sheet %
31%
64%
Over 2.5 %
44%
4.0
Avg corners
6.3
15.3
Avg shots
18.3
6.5
Avg shots on target
6.7
2.2
Avg yellow cards
3.2
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
47.8%
Avg possession
50.7%
Home vs Away
Penafiel
Home (4)
—
Lusitânia Lourosa
Away (3)
1.50
PPG
3.00
50%
Win %
100%
1.75
Goals / game
1.67
1.00
Conceded / game
0.33
43%
BTTS %
43%
14%
Clean sheet %
43%
43%
Over 2.5 %
43%
4.0
Avg corners
6.3
15.3
Avg shots
18.3
6.5
Avg shots on target
6.7
2.2
Avg yellow cards
3.2
47.8%
Avg possession
50.7%
Goals Scored
| Penafiel | Home | Away | Lusitânia Lourosa | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 64% | 57% | 71% | 75% | 78% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 57% | 43% | 71% | 56% | 56% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 21% | 14% | 29% | 13% | 11% | 14% |
| Failed To Score | 36% | 43% | 29% | 25% | 22% | 29% |
Goals Conceded
| Penafiel | Home | Away | Lusitânia Lourosa | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 79% | 86% | 71% | 69% | 78% | 57% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 36% | 43% | 29% | 31% | 44% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 7% | 0% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 14% |
| Clean Sheets | 21% | 14% | 29% | 31% | 22% | 43% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Penafiel | Lusitânia Lourosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 25% |
| Over 4.5 | 21% | 13% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS & Win | 29% | 25% |
| BTTS & Draw | 14% | 19% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 44% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 14% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Penafiel | Lusitânia Lourosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 46% | 50% |
| Draw 1st Half | 23% | 25% |
| Loss 1st Half | 31% | 25% |
| Scored 1st Half | 54% | 67% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 38% | 42% |
| Win 2nd Half | 38% | 42% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 38% | 50% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 23% | 8% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 62% | 75% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 54% | 33% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 85% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 46% | 42% |
Recent Venue Form
Penafiel (H)L
Leça0–1
Leça0–1L
AVS1–2
AVS1–2D
Deportivo La Coruna2–2
Deportivo La Coruna2–2W
Academica4–1
Academica4–1W
Sporting CP B2–0
Sporting CP B2–0L
Portimonense0–1
Portimonense0–1Lusitânia Lourosa (A)W
Madalena3–1
Madalena3–1WSporting CP B2–1
Sporting CP B2–1WAcademica2–0
Academica2–0W
Amarante1–0
Amarante1–0L
Paredes2–4
Paredes2–4DLeça0–0
Leça0–0Number of Corners
8.8
Corners / Match
4 games
League Avg
9.4
33 games
9.3
Corners / Match
3 games
| Match Corners | Penafiel | Lusitânia Lourosa | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 75% | 100% | 85% |
| Over 7 | 75% | 67% | 70% |
| Over 8 | 75% | 67% | 61% |
| Over 9 | 50% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 10 | 0% | 33% | 27% |
| Over 11 | 0% | 0% | 12% |
| Over 12 | 0% | 0% | 12% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 0% | 9% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Penafiel | Lusitânia Lourosa |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.0 | 6.3 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.8 | 3.0 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 50% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 50% | 100% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 50% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 75% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 75% | 33% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 50% | 0% |
Head to Head · 2 matches
1
Penafiel
50%
1
Draws
50%
0
Lusitânia Lourosa
0%
50%
Over 1.5
1/2
0%
Over 2.5
0/2
0%
Over 3.5
0/2
0%
BTTS
0/2
16/02/26Lusitânia Lourosa
Penafiel
2–0Lusitânia Lourosa13/09/25Penafiel
Lusitânia Lourosa
0–0Penafiel| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP B | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +7 | 18 |
| 2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +7 | 17 |
| 3 | Penafiel | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +10 | 16 |
| 4 | Academica | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +4 | 15 |
| 5 |  Farense | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Benfica B | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 |  Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 8 |  Vizela | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 |  União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 |  Leixoes | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 |  Chaves | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |  FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 |  Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 |  Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 |  Feirense | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Team Insights
Penafiel- ●Penafiel have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Penafiel have won their last 3 away matches.
- ●Penafiel have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Penafiel have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●63% of Penafiel's points have been earned away.
- ●Penafiel have scored 61% of their goals in the first half.
Lusitânia Lourosa- ●Lusitânia Lourosa have been undefeated in their last 7 matches.
- ●Lusitânia Lourosa have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Lusitânia Lourosa have been undefeated in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Lusitânia Lourosa have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Lusitânia Lourosa have won their last 3 away matches.
Season Schedule
PenafielWAFarense4–1
Farense4–1LHAVS1–2
AVS1–2WAFelgueiras 19322–1
Felgueiras 19322–1WHAcademica4–1
Academica4–1WAFC Porto B3–0
FC Porto B3–0WHSporting CP B2–0
Sporting CP B2–0–HFeirense02/11
Feirense02/11–AChaves07/11
Chaves07/11–HLusitânia Lourosa15/11
Lusitânia Lourosa15/11Lusitânia LourosaDHChaves1–1
Chaves1–1WASporting CP B2–1
Sporting CP B2–1WHAVS2–1
AVS2–1WAAcademica2–0
Academica2–0DHTorreense2–2
Torreense2–2WAAmarante1–0
Amarante1–0–AFelgueiras 193225/10
Felgueiras 193225/10–HFarense01/11
Farense01/11–AFeirense08/11
Feirense08/11Top Scorers
PenafielM. Svensson4 ⚽
Davo3 ⚽
Max Svensson2 ⚽
Juanda Fuentes2 ⚽
Claudio Mendes2 ⚽
Ricardo Schutte2 ⚽
Lusitânia LourosaMicael correia2 ⚽
2 ⚽
J. Santos2 ⚽
J. Silva2 ⚽
I. A. da Silva Moreira1 ⚽
Fabinho1 ⚽
Cards Given
Penafiel3 🟨
C. Moreira2 🟨
Jaime Sánchez2 🟨
Pedro Sa2 🟨
J. Sanchez2 🟨
Pedro Sá2 🟨
Lusitânia LourosaRicardinho4 🟨
M. Tablante2 🟨
B. Faria2 🟨
Fabinho2 🟨
D. Paulo2 🟨
João Santos2 🟨