Chaves vs Penafiel — Segunda Liga
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Chaves and Penafiel meet in the Segunda Liga 2026 season on 7 November 2026. Chaves have recorded 8 wins from 19 matches this season (42% win rate), averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 58% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 58%; and clean sheets in 16% of games. Penafiel have won 47% of their 15 matches, with 1.53 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 47%, Over 2.5 at 60%, and clean sheets at 27%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 2.04 for Chaves and 1.76 for Penafiel. The models give Chaves a 38% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Penafiel win at 39%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 63% and BTTS at 64%.
Season Statistics
Chaves—
Penafiel15º
Position
2º
0.89
PPG
2.11
22%
Win %
67%
1.00
Goals / game
2.11
2.00
Conceded / game
0.89
58%
BTTS %
47%
16%
Clean sheet %
27%
58%
Over 2.5 %
60%
3.0
Avg corners
3.8
13.0
Avg shots
14.2
6.4
Avg shots on target
6.2
2.7
Avg yellow cards
2.4
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
50.8%
Avg possession
49.0%
Home vs Away
Chaves
Home (4)
—
Penafiel
Away (4)
1.75
PPG
2.50
50%
Win %
75%
1.50
Goals / game
2.75
1.75
Conceded / game
1.00
70%
BTTS %
57%
20%
Clean sheet %
29%
70%
Over 2.5 %
86%
3.0
Avg corners
3.8
13.0
Avg shots
14.2
6.4
Avg shots on target
6.2
2.7
Avg yellow cards
2.4
50.8%
Avg possession
49.0%
Goals Scored
| Chaves | Home | Away | Penafiel | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 74% | 90% | 56% | 67% | 63% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 37% | 60% | 11% | 53% | 38% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 11% | 10% | 11% | 20% | 13% | 29% |
| Failed To Score | 26% | 10% | 44% | 33% | 38% | 29% |
Goals Conceded
| Chaves | Home | Away | Penafiel | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 84% | 80% | 89% | 73% | 75% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 42% | 30% | 56% | 33% | 38% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 21% | 20% | 22% | 7% | 0% | 14% |
| Clean Sheets | 16% | 20% | 11% | 27% | 25% | 29% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Chaves | Penafiel | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 93% |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 73% |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 33% |
| Over 4.5 | 21% | 20% |
| BTTS | 58% | 47% |
| BTTS & Win | 26% | 27% |
| BTTS & Draw | 11% | 13% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 5% | 13% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Chaves | Penafiel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 36% | 43% |
| Draw 1st Half | 36% | 29% |
| Loss 1st Half | 29% | 29% |
| Scored 1st Half | 43% | 50% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 43% | 36% |
| Win 2nd Half | 21% | 43% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 14% | 36% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 64% | 21% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 50% | 64% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 79% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 71% | 79% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 36% | 43% |
Recent Venue Form
Chaves (H)W
Vizela2–1
Vizela2–1W
Os Marialvas2–1
Os Marialvas2–1L
Vitória SC0–1
Vitória SC0–1W
Feirense1–0
Feirense1–0D
AVS2–2
AVS2–2L
Academica1–4
Academica1–4Penafiel (A)W
Farense4–1
Farense4–1W
Oliveirense2–1
Oliveirense2–1W
Felgueiras 19322–1
Felgueiras 19322–1W
FC Porto B3–0
FC Porto B3–0D
Torreense2–2
Torreense2–2D
Famalicao0–0
Famalicao0–0Number of Corners
8.0
Corners / Match
5 games
League Avg
9.4
46 games
8.2
Corners / Match
5 games
| Match Corners | Chaves | Penafiel | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 60% | 60% | 83% |
| Over 7 | 60% | 60% | 67% |
| Over 8 | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 9 | 40% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 10 | 0% | 0% | 30% |
| Over 11 | 0% | 0% | 17% |
| Over 12 | 0% | 0% | 15% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 0% | 13% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Chaves | Penafiel |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 3.0 | 3.8 |
| Corners Against / Match | 5.0 | 4.4 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 40% | 40% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 20% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 80% | 80% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 80% | 60% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 80% | 40% |
Head to Head · 11 matches
5
Chaves
45%
2
Draws
18%
4
Penafiel
36%
55%
Over 1.5
6/11
45%
Over 2.5
5/11
9%
Over 3.5
1/11
45%
BTTS
5/11
06/02/26Penafiel
Chaves
0–1Penafiel30/08/25Chaves
Penafiel
0–2Chaves15/05/25Chaves
Penafiel
0–0Chaves04/01/25Penafiel
Chaves
0–1Penafiel18/07/23Chaves
Penafiel
1–2Chaves06/03/22Chaves
Penafiel
2–1Chaves10/10/21Penafiel
Chaves
3–1Penafiel29/03/21Penafiel
Chaves
2–1Penafiel09/11/20Chaves
Penafiel
1–0Chaves17/02/20Chaves
Penafiel
0–0Chaves01/09/19Penafiel
Chaves
2–1Penafiel| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sporting CP B | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +8 | 21 |
| 2 | Penafiel | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +11 | 19 |
| 3 |  Lusitânia Lourosa | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | +7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Benfica B | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 17 |
| 5 | Farense | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Academica | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 |  Tondela | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | Vizela | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 |  União de Leiria | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | AVS | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 |  Portimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 12 | Torreense | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 |  Leixoes | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 |  Amarante | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Chaves | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | FC Porto B | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 17 | Felgueiras 1932 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Feirense | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 2 |
Team Insights
Chaves- ●Chaves have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Chaves have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Chaves failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Chaves failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Chaves have lost 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●67% of Chaves's goals have been scored at home.
- ●87% of Chaves's points have been earned at home.
Penafiel- ●Penafiel have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Penafiel have scored in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Penafiel have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Penafiel have won their last 3 away matches.
- ●Penafiel have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Penafiel have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Penafiel have scored 58% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
ChavesLABenfica B1–3
Benfica B1–3WHVizela2–1
Vizela2–1DALusitânia Lourosa1–1
Lusitânia Lourosa1–1LAFarense0–4
Farense0–4WHFeirense1–0
Feirense1–0LAFelgueiras 19321–2
Felgueiras 19321–2–HPenafiel07/11
Penafiel07/11–ALeixoes15/11
Leixoes15/11–HTondela28/11
Tondela28/11PenafielWHFeirense1–0
Feirense1–0WAFarense4–1
Farense4–1LHAVS1–2
AVS1–2WAFelgueiras 19322–1
Felgueiras 19322–1WHAcademica4–1
Academica4–1WAFC Porto B3–0
FC Porto B3–0–AChaves07/11
Chaves07/11–HLusitânia Lourosa15/11
Lusitânia Lourosa15/11–HBenfica B29/11
Benfica B29/11Top Scorers
ChavesAndre Rodrigues3 ⚽
3 ⚽
W. Tavares2 ⚽
A. Rodrigues1 ⚽
Marcos Andre1 ⚽
Roberto1 ⚽
PenafielM. Svensson4 ⚽
Davo3 ⚽
Claudio Mendes2 ⚽
João Pinto2 ⚽
Juanda Fuentes2 ⚽
Max Svensson2 ⚽
Cards Given
Chaves6 🟨
Marcos Andre3 🟨
Leandro Santos do Nascimento3 🟨
mohamed fofana2 🟨
Kiko2 🟨
A. Rodrigues2 🟨
PenafielJaime Sánchez3 🟨
3 🟨
Pedro Sa2 🟨
J. Sanchez2 🟨
C. Moreira2 🟨
Max Svensson2 🟨