Penybont vs Caernarfon Town — Premier League
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Penybont and Caernarfon Town meet in the Premier League 2026 season on 6 November 2026. Penybont have recorded 11 wins from 17 matches this season (65% win rate), averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 53% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 65%; and clean sheets in 29% of games. Caernarfon Town have won 61% of their 18 matches, with 2.50 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 61%, Over 2.5 at 83%, and clean sheets at 22%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.52 for Penybont and 1.62 for Caernarfon Town. The models give Penybont a 39% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Caernarfon Town win at 35%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 61% and BTTS at 63%.
Season Statistics
Penybont—
Caernarfon Town3º
Position
4º
2.31
PPG
2.07
69%
Win %
64%
1.92
Goals / game
2.86
0.85
Conceded / game
1.14
53%
BTTS %
61%
29%
Clean sheet %
22%
65%
Over 2.5 %
83%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Penybont
Home (7)
—
Caernarfon Town
Away (7)
2.43
PPG
2.43
71%
Win %
71%
1.71
Goals / game
2.71
0.86
Conceded / game
1.14
63%
BTTS %
70%
25%
Clean sheet %
20%
50%
Over 2.5 %
80%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Penybont | Home | Away | Caernarfon Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 76% | 75% | 78% | 83% | 75% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 59% | 50% | 67% | 72% | 63% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 35% | 25% | 44% | 39% | 50% | 30% |
| Failed To Score | 24% | 25% | 22% | 17% | 25% | 10% |
Goals Conceded
| Penybont | Home | Away | Caernarfon Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 71% | 75% | 67% | 78% | 75% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 24% | 13% | 33% | 33% | 38% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 6% | 0% | 11% | 22% | 25% | 20% |
| Clean Sheets | 29% | 25% | 33% | 22% | 25% | 20% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Penybont | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 94% |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 83% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 | 18% | 33% |
| BTTS | 53% | 61% |
| BTTS & Win | 41% | 39% |
| BTTS & Draw | 12% | 11% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 47% | 56% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 18% | 28% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Penybont | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 53% | 56% |
| Draw 1st Half | 29% | 6% |
| Loss 1st Half | 18% | 39% |
| Scored 1st Half | 65% | 72% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 47% | 56% |
| Win 2nd Half | 35% | 39% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 41% | 44% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 24% | 17% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 53% | 67% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 47% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 82% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 47% | 56% |
Recent Venue Form
Penybont (H)W
Barry Town3–1
Barry Town3–1W
Airbus UK2–1
Airbus UK2–1W
Briton Ferry3–2
Briton Ferry3–2W
Colwyn Bay1–0
Colwyn Bay1–0D
Flint Town United1–1
Flint Town United1–1W
Llandudno2–1
Llandudno2–1Caernarfon Town (A)WFlint Town United3–1
Flint Town United3–1W
Haverfordwest County AFC2–1
Haverfordwest County AFC2–1D
Cardiff MET2–2
Cardiff MET2–2DLlandudno1–1
Llandudno1–1W
Ammanford AFC5–0
Ammanford AFC5–0W
Holywell5–3
Holywell5–3Head to Head · 25 matches
12
Penybont
48%
6
Draws
24%
7
Caernarfon Town
28%
84%
Over 1.5
21/25
56%
Over 2.5
14/25
40%
Over 3.5
10/25
56%
BTTS
14/25
07/08/26Penybont
Caernarfon Town
1–2Penybont18/04/26Penybont
Caernarfon Town
2–0Penybont24/01/26Caernarfon Town
Penybont
0–0Caernarfon Town25/10/25Caernarfon Town
Penybont
0–2Caernarfon Town20/09/25Penybont
Caernarfon Town
1–2Penybont13/04/25Caernarfon Town
Penybont
3–1Caernarfon Town22/02/25Penybont
Caernarfon Town
3–2Penybont02/11/24Penybont
Caernarfon Town
1–5Penybont07/09/24Caernarfon Town
Penybont
2–0Caernarfon Town18/05/24Penybont
Caernarfon Town
3–1Penybont04/11/23Penybont
Caernarfon Town
2–4Penybont16/09/23Caernarfon Town
Penybont
3–2Caernarfon Town07/01/23Caernarfon Town
Penybont
5–1Caernarfon Town05/11/22Penybont
Caernarfon Town
0–2Penybont15/04/22Penybont
Caernarfon Town
1–0Penybont05/03/22Caernarfon Town
Penybont
0–3Caernarfon Town04/12/21Penybont
Caernarfon Town
1–2Penybont16/10/21Caernarfon Town
Penybont
0–0Caernarfon Town02/10/21Caernarfon Town
Penybont
1–1Caernarfon Town01/05/21Penybont
Caernarfon Town
2–2Penybont| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The New Saints | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | +47 | 40 |
| 2 |  GAP Connah S Quay FC | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | +23 | 34 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | +14 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | +24 | 29 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +7 | 26 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | +3 | 25 |
| 7 | Airbus UK | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | +8 | 24 |
| 8 | Cardiff MET | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +8 | 22 |
| 9 |  Cambrian & Clydach | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 12 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -31 | 9 |
| 15 |  Trefelin | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -25 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -30 | 2 |
Team Insights
Penybont- ●Penybont failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Penybont have won their last 4 home matches.
- ●Penybont have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Penybont failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Penybont have scored in 6 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Penybont have won 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Penybont have scored in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Penybont have scored 68% of their goals in the first half.
Caernarfon Town- ●Caernarfon Town have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Caernarfon Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Caernarfon Town have been undefeated in their last 7 away matches.
- ●Caernarfon Town have scored in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Caernarfon Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Caernarfon Town have scored in 6 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Caernarfon Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Caernarfon Town have won 5 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Caernarfon Town have scored in 7 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Caernarfon Town have conceded 56% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
PenybontWHBarry Town3–1
Barry Town3–1LAGAP Connah S Quay FC0–1
GAP Connah S Quay FC0–1WHAirbus UK2–1
Airbus UK2–1WAAmmanford AFC5–1
Ammanford AFC5–1WHBriton Ferry3–2
Briton Ferry3–2WATrefelin1–0
Trefelin1–0–ACardiff MET31/10
Cardiff MET31/10–HCaernarfon Town06/11
Caernarfon Town06/11–HHaverfordwest County AFC20/11
Haverfordwest County AFC20/11Caernarfon TownWHBriton Ferry3–1
Briton Ferry3–1WAHaverfordwest County AFC2–1
Haverfordwest County AFC2–1LHBarry Town0–1
Barry Town0–1DACardiff MET2–2
Cardiff MET2–2WHCambrian & Clydach9–1
Cambrian & Clydach9–1DALlandudno1–1
Llandudno1–1–AAirbus UK30/10
Airbus UK30/10–APenybont06/11
Penybont06/11–HGAP Connah S Quay FC20/11
GAP Connah S Quay FC20/11Top Scorers
PenybontE. Cann6 ⚽
T. Mehew5 ⚽
R. Hill4 ⚽
T. Walker4 ⚽
N. Wood2 ⚽
C. Venables1 ⚽
Caernarfon TownZ. Clarke13 ⚽
S. Bradley7 ⚽
O. Evans4 ⚽
N. Edwards3 ⚽
A. Cieslewicz3 ⚽
H. Charsley2 ⚽
Cards Given
PenybontE. Vaughan4 🟨
M. Manga4 🟨
Ethan Cann3 🟨
A. Baker2 🟨
D. Jefferies2 🟨
C. Venables2 🟨
Caernarfon TownB. Nash4 🟨
N. Edwards4 🟨
C. Marriott4 🟨
R. Sears3 🟨
D. Gosset3 🟨
P. Mendes2 🟨