Maritimo vs Nacional — Primeira Liga
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Maritimo and Nacional meet in the Primeira Liga 2026 season on 27 November 2026. Maritimo have recorded 5 wins from 16 matches this season (31% win rate), averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 56% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 56%; and clean sheets in 25% of games. Nacional have won 7% of their 14 matches, with 1.00 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 50%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 14%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.46 for Maritimo and 1.31 for Nacional. The models give Maritimo a 47% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Nacional win at 28%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 53% and BTTS at 56%.
Season Statistics
Maritimo—
Nacional13º
Position
17º
0.89
PPG
0.50
22%
Win %
13%
1.00
Goals / game
1.13
2.11
Conceded / game
2.25
56%
BTTS %
50%
25%
Clean sheet %
14%
56%
Over 2.5 %
50%
3.1
Avg corners
4.4
10.0
Avg shots
10.9
3.1
Avg shots on target
3.1
1.9
Avg yellow cards
1.1
14.9
Avg fouls
11.1
44.3%
Avg possession
49.9%
Home vs Away
Maritimo
Home (4)
—
Nacional
Away (4)
1.00
PPG
0.25
25%
Win %
0%
1.00
Goals / game
1.00
1.75
Conceded / game
2.00
40%
BTTS %
43%
40%
Clean sheet %
0%
40%
Over 2.5 %
29%
3.1
Avg corners
4.4
10.0
Avg shots
10.9
3.1
Avg shots on target
3.1
1.9
Avg yellow cards
1.1
44.3%
Avg possession
49.9%
Goals Scored
| Maritimo | Home | Away | Nacional | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 75% | 70% | 83% | 57% | 71% | 43% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 31% | 30% | 33% | 36% | 43% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 14% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 25% | 30% | 17% | 43% | 29% | 57% |
Goals Conceded
| Maritimo | Home | Away | Nacional | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 75% | 60% | 100% | 86% | 71% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 44% | 40% | 50% | 64% | 71% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 25% | 20% | 33% | 36% | 57% | 14% |
| Clean Sheets | 25% | 40% | 0% | 14% | 29% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Maritimo | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94% | 93% |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 43% |
| Over 4.5 | 13% | 21% |
| BTTS | 56% | 50% |
| BTTS & Win | 13% | 0% |
| BTTS & Draw | 19% | 21% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 44% | 43% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 13% | 7% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Maritimo | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 0% | 0% |
| Draw 1st Half | 58% | 55% |
| Loss 1st Half | 42% | 45% |
| Scored 1st Half | 25% | 27% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 67% | 73% |
| Win 2nd Half | 50% | 18% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 17% | 27% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 33% | 55% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 58% | 36% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 50% | 55% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 67% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 42% | 45% |
Recent Venue Form
Maritimo (H)L
FC Porto1–2
FC Porto1–2L
Benfica0–3
Benfica0–3D
Academico Viseu2–2
Academico Viseu2–2W
Casa Pia1–0
Casa Pia1–0D
Estrela Calheta1–1
Estrela Calheta1–1D
Machico0–0
Machico0–0Nacional (A)L
Sanjoanense0–1
Sanjoanense0–1L
Rio Ave2–3
Rio Ave2–3L
Sporting CP0–2
Sporting CP0–2L
Vitória SC0–1
Vitória SC0–1D
Santa Clara2–2
Santa Clara2–2L
Estrela0–2
Estrela0–2Number of Corners
7.8
Corners / Match
9 games
League Avg
8.8
76 games
9.1
Corners / Match
8 games
| Match Corners | Maritimo | Nacional | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 78% | 88% | 74% |
| Over 7 | 67% | 63% | 61% |
| Over 8 | 22% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 9 | 11% | 50% | 41% |
| Over 10 | 11% | 38% | 29% |
| Over 11 | 0% | 25% | 20% |
| Over 12 | 0% | 13% | 13% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 13% | 12% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Maritimo | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 3.1 | 4.4 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 67% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 33% | 63% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 22% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 89% | 88% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 78% | 63% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 67% | 25% |
Head to Head · 24 matches
10
Maritimo
42%
7
Draws
29%
7
Nacional
29%
75%
Over 1.5
18/24
46%
Over 2.5
11/24
25%
Over 3.5
6/24
46%
BTTS
11/24
03/08/25Nacional
Maritimo
3–0Nacional23/07/24Nacional
Maritimo
2–0Nacional21/01/24Nacional
Maritimo
3–1Nacional12/08/23Maritimo
Nacional
1–2Maritimo30/07/22Nacional
Maritimo
1–0Nacional16/07/22Maritimo
Nacional
0–1Maritimo12/03/21Maritimo
Nacional
1–2Maritimo31/10/20Nacional
Maritimo
0–0Nacional31/03/19Nacional
Maritimo
3–2Nacional10/11/18Maritimo
Nacional
1–0Maritimo20/02/17Nacional
Maritimo
0–0Nacional16/09/16Maritimo
Nacional
2–0Maritimo02/04/16Nacional
Maritimo
2–0Nacional27/11/15Maritimo
Nacional
3–1Maritimo20/04/15Nacional
Maritimo
1–1Nacional08/12/14Maritimo
Nacional
3–0Maritimo12/04/14Maritimo
Nacional
2–0Maritimo08/12/13Nacional
Maritimo
2–2Nacional21/04/13Maritimo
Nacional
2–1Maritimo09/12/12Nacional
Maritimo
2–0Nacional| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | +17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Team Insights
Maritimo- ●Maritimo have failed to win in their last 7 matches.
- ●Maritimo failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Maritimo failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Maritimo failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 away matches.
Nacional- ●Nacional have failed to win in their last 6 matches.
- ●Nacional have lost their last 6 matches.
- ●Nacional failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Nacional have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Nacional have lost their last 3 home matches.
- ●Nacional have lost their last 3 away matches.
- ●Nacional have conceded 67% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
MaritimoLAVitória SC0–5
Vitória SC0–5LHFC Porto1–2
FC Porto1–2DAGIL Vicente1–1
GIL Vicente1–1LAMoreirense1–3
Moreirense1–3LHBenfica0–3
Benfica0–3LAArouca1–2
Arouca1–2–HSanta Clara01/11
Santa Clara01/11–AEstoril08/11
Estoril08/11–HNacional27/11
Nacional27/11NacionalLARio Ave2–3
Rio Ave2–3LHFamalicao0–4
Famalicao0–4LHAlverca1–3
Alverca1–3LASporting CP0–2
Sporting CP0–2LHEstrela2–3
Estrela2–3LAVitória SC0–1
Vitória SC0–1–HSC Braga25/10
SC Braga25/10–AArouca01/11
Arouca01/11–HAcademico Viseu07/11
Academico Viseu07/11Top Scorers
MaritimoM. Boakye2 ⚽
S. Bouzaidi2 ⚽
Israel Isaac Ayuma1 ⚽
A. Butzke1 ⚽
P. Henrique1 ⚽
Raphael Guzzo1 ⚽
NacionalN. Kader2 ⚽
Liziero1 ⚽
M. Baeza1 ⚽
Matchoi Djaló1 ⚽
Pablo Ruan1 ⚽
Wesley Gasolina1 ⚽
Cards Given
MaritimoRaphael Guzzo4 🟨
Rodri Andrade3 🟨
Igor Julião2 🟨
Igor Juliao2 🟨
M. Tejon1 🟨
M. Dominguez1 🟨
NacionalZe Vitor2 🟨
F. Soares2 🟨
Matheus dos Santos Dias2 🟨
Markus Jensen1 🟨
Matheus Dias1 🟨
D. Dongmo1 🟨