FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg — Bundesliga
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FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg meet in the Bundesliga 2026 season on 12 December 2026. FSV Mainz 05 have recorded 12 wins from 19 matches this season (63% win rate), averaging 3.53 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 42% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 79%; and clean sheets in 53% of games. SC Freiburg have won 78% of their 18 matches, with 2.67 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 72%, Over 2.5 at 89%, and clean sheets at 22%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.97 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.69 for SC Freiburg. The models give FSV Mainz 05 a 42% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an SC Freiburg win at 34%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 70% and BTTS at 69%.
Season Statistics
FSV Mainz 05—
SC Freiburg9º
Position
3º
1.25
PPG
2.00
38%
Win %
63%
2.13
Goals / game
2.25
2.13
Conceded / game
1.25
42%
BTTS %
72%
53%
Clean sheet %
22%
79%
Over 2.5 %
89%
5.8
Avg corners
6.1
16.0
Avg shots
17.6
5.7
Avg shots on target
5.9
2.2
Avg yellow cards
1.5
13.0
Avg fouls
10.1
50.8%
Avg possession
54.5%
Home vs Away
FSV Mainz 05
Home (4)
—
SC Freiburg
Away (4)
0.25
PPG
1.75
0%
Win %
50%
1.50
Goals / game
1.50
2.50
Conceded / game
1.25
56%
BTTS %
71%
44%
Clean sheet %
14%
78%
Over 2.5 %
86%
5.8
Avg corners
6.1
16.0
Avg shots
17.6
5.7
Avg shots on target
5.9
2.2
Avg yellow cards
1.5
50.8%
Avg possession
54.5%
Goals Scored
| FSV Mainz | Home | Away | SC Freiburg | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 89% | 89% | 90% | 94% | 100% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 68% | 67% | 70% | 78% | 91% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 58% | 44% | 70% | 56% | 73% | 29% |
| Failed To Score | 11% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 0% | 14% |
Goals Conceded
| FSV Mainz | Home | Away | SC Freiburg | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 47% | 56% | 40% | 78% | 73% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 37% | 33% | 40% | 39% | 36% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 32% | 33% | 30% | 11% | 9% | 14% |
| Clean Sheets | 53% | 44% | 60% | 22% | 27% | 14% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| FSV Mainz | SC Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 94% |
| Over 2.5 | 79% | 89% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 61% |
| Over 4.5 | 53% | 39% |
| BTTS | 42% | 72% |
| BTTS & Win | 16% | 56% |
| BTTS & Draw | 5% | 6% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 42% | 72% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 37% | 17% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| FSV Mainz | SC Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 53% | 35% |
| Draw 1st Half | 26% | 35% |
| Loss 1st Half | 21% | 29% |
| Scored 1st Half | 74% | 82% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 37% | 71% |
| Win 2nd Half | 53% | 71% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 37% | 18% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 11% | 12% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 84% | 82% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 37% | 41% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 84% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 79% | 71% |
Recent Venue Form
FSV Mainz (H)L
Werder Bremen2–3
Werder Bremen2–3L
Bayer Leverkusen3–4
Bayer Leverkusen3–4L
Eintracht Frankfurt1–3
Eintracht Frankfurt1–3D
SC Paderborn 070–0
SC Paderborn 070–0W
Bournemouth2–1
Bournemouth2–1W
Paris FC4–0
Paris FC4–0SC Freiburg (A)W
FC Augsburg2–1
FC Augsburg2–1L
Monaco0–3
Monaco0–3LBayer Leverkusen1–2
Bayer Leverkusen1–2DEintracht Frankfurt2–2
Eintracht Frankfurt2–2WSC Paderborn 071–0
SC Paderborn 071–0W
Fortuna Düsseldorf5–1
Fortuna Düsseldorf5–1Number of Corners
10.3
Corners / Match
9 games
League Avg
10.7
72 games
9.1
Corners / Match
14 games
| Match Corners | FSV Mainz | SC Freiburg | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 89% | 86% | 93% |
| Over 7 | 78% | 79% | 86% |
| Over 8 | 78% | 57% | 75% |
| Over 9 | 56% | 36% | 63% |
| Over 10 | 44% | 29% | 51% |
| Over 11 | 33% | 14% | 40% |
| Over 12 | 33% | 7% | 28% |
| Over 13 | 11% | 7% | 18% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | FSV Mainz | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.8 | 6.1 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.6 | 3.1 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 89% | 93% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 89% | 86% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 56% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 89% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 78% | 36% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 56% | 29% |
Head to Head · 31 matches
11
FSV Mainz
35%
10
Draws
32%
10
SC Freiburg
32%
74%
Over 1.5
23/31
52%
Over 2.5
16/31
32%
Over 3.5
10/31
58%
BTTS
18/31
12/04/26SC Freiburg
FSV Mainz 05
0–1SC Freiburg30/11/25FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
4–0FSV Mainz 0515/03/25SC Freiburg
FSV Mainz 05
2–2SC Freiburg03/11/24FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
0–0FSV Mainz 0521/04/24FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
1–1FSV Mainz 0503/12/23SC Freiburg
FSV Mainz 05
0–1SC Freiburg19/03/23SC Freiburg
FSV Mainz 05
1–1SC Freiburg01/10/22FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
2–1FSV Mainz 0512/02/22FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
1–1FSV Mainz 0518/09/21SC Freiburg
FSV Mainz 05
0–0SC Freiburg13/03/21SC Freiburg
FSV Mainz 05
1–0SC Freiburg22/11/20FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
1–3FSV Mainz 0518/01/20SC Freiburg
FSV Mainz 05
1–2SC Freiburg17/08/19FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
3–0FSV Mainz 0505/04/19SC Freiburg
FSV Mainz 05
5–0SC Freiburg10/11/18FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
1–3FSV Mainz 0516/04/18SC Freiburg
FSV Mainz 05
2–0SC Freiburg25/11/17FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
2–1FSV Mainz 0508/04/17FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
1–0FSV Mainz 0519/11/16SC Freiburg
FSV Mainz 05
4–2SC Freiburg| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +11 | 15 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Augsburg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -12 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
Team Insights
FSV Mainz- ●FSV Mainz 05 have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●FSV Mainz 05 have failed to win in their last 4 home matches.
- ●FSV Mainz 05 have lost their last 3 home matches.
- ●FSV Mainz 05 have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●65% of FSV Mainz 05's goals have been scored away.
- ●90% of FSV Mainz 05's points have been earned away.
- ●FSV Mainz 05 have conceded 59% of their goals in the first half.
SC Freiburg- ●SC Freiburg failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●SC Freiburg have scored in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●SC Freiburg have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●SC Freiburg have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●67% of SC Freiburg's goals have been scored at home.
- ●SC Freiburg have conceded 70% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
FSV MainzLASV Elversberg1–4
SV Elversberg1–4LHWerder Bremen2–3
Werder Bremen2–3WAFC Schalke 041–0
FC Schalke 041–0LHBayer Leverkusen3–4
Bayer Leverkusen3–4WABorussia Mönchengladbach4–3
Borussia Mönchengladbach4–3LHEintracht Frankfurt1–3
Eintracht Frankfurt1–3–HBayern München07/11
Bayern München07/11–AFC Augsburg22/11
FC Augsburg22/11–HUnion Berlin28/11
Union Berlin28/11SC FreiburgWAFC Augsburg2–1
FC Augsburg2–1LHBayern München1–3
Bayern München1–3LABayer Leverkusen1–2
Bayer Leverkusen1–2WHFC Schalke 042–1
FC Schalke 042–1DAEintracht Frankfurt2–2
Eintracht Frankfurt2–2WHBorussia Mönchengladbach5–0
Borussia Mönchengladbach5–0–HUnion Berlin08/11
Union Berlin08/11–ASV Elversberg21/11
SV Elversberg21/11–HRB Leipzig29/11
RB Leipzig29/11Top Scorers
FSV MainzP. Tietz10 ⚽
R. Konigsdorffer7 ⚽
S. Becker5 ⚽
N. Weiper5 ⚽
Phillip Tietz5 ⚽
W. Boving4 ⚽
SC FreiburgI. Matanovic4 ⚽
Y. Suzuki3 ⚽
Keisuke Goto3 ⚽
Maximilian Eggestein3 ⚽
Igor Matanovic2 ⚽
D. Scherhant2 ⚽
Cards Given
FSV MainzPhillipp Mwene4 🟨
Stefan Posch3 🟨
Sheraldo Becker2 🟨
Alexander Schwolow2 🟨
Ransford Königsdörffer2 🟨
Lee Jae-Sung1 🟨
SC FreiburgYuito Suzuki4 🟨
Maximilian Eggestein3 🟨
Matthias Ginter2 🟨
Lucas Höler2 🟨
P. Osterhage2 🟨
Jan-Niklas Beste1 🟨