Spain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10

Lugo

1º · 2.44 PPG

Days Since Last Match: 9d 0h

–

Mérida AD

10º · 1.50 PPG

Days Since Last Match: 14d 7h

Estadio Anxo Carro·Lugo·Spain·8,168

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Lugo and Mérida AD meet in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2026 season on 1 November 2026. Lugo have recorded 9 wins from 13 matches this season (69% win rate), averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 54% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 54%; and clean sheets in 38% of games. Mérida AD have won 42% of their 12 matches, with 1.42 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 33%, Over 2.5 at 58%, and clean sheets at 25%.

Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.42 for Lugo and 0.99 for Mérida AD. The models give Lugo a 50% win probability, with a draw at 27% and an Mérida AD win at 23%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 43% and BTTS at 48%.

Season Statistics

Lugo

—

Mérida AD

1º

Position

10º

2.44

PPG

1.50

78%

Win %

50%

1.78

Goals / game

1.88

0.89

Conceded / game

1.50

54%

BTTS %

33%

38%

Clean sheet %

25%

54%

Over 2.5 %

58%

0.0

Avg corners

0.0

Avg shots

0.0

Avg shots on target

0.0

Avg yellow cards

0.0

Avg fouls

0.0

0.0%

Avg possession

0.0%

Home vs Away

Lugo

Home (4)

—

Mérida AD

Away (4)

3.00

PPG

1.50

100%

Win %

50%

2.00

Goals / game

1.50

0.25

Conceded / game

0.75

43%

BTTS %

17%

57%

Clean sheet %

17%

43%

Over 2.5 %

67%

0.0

Avg corners

0.0

Avg shots

0.0

Avg shots on target

0.0

Avg yellow cards

0.0

0.0%

Avg possession

0.0%

Goals Scored

	Lugo	Home	Away	Mérida AD	Home	Away
Over 0.5 Scored	85%	100%	67%	58%	83%	33%
Over 1.5 Scored	46%	43%	50%	50%	67%	33%
Over 2.5 Scored	23%	29%	17%	25%	33%	17%
Failed To Score	15%	0%	33%	42%	17%	67%

Goals Conceded

	Lugo	Home	Away	Mérida AD	Home	Away
Over 0.5 Conceded	62%	43%	83%	75%	67%	83%
Over 1.5 Conceded	8%	0%	17%	42%	50%	33%
Over 2.5 Conceded	8%	0%	17%	33%	33%	33%
Clean Sheets	38%	57%	17%	25%	33%	17%

Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions

	Lugo	Mérida AD
Over 0.5	92%	100%
Over 1.5	62%	75%
Over 2.5	54%	58%
Over 3.5	23%	33%
Over 4.5	8%	17%
BTTS	54%	33%
BTTS & Win	38%	17%
BTTS & Draw	8%	0%
BTTS & Over 2.5	46%	33%
BTTS No & Over 2.5	8%	25%

1st Half / 2nd Half

	Lugo	Mérida AD
Win 1st Half	54%	25%
Draw 1st Half	15%	33%
Loss 1st Half	31%	42%
Scored 1st Half	54%	42%
Conceded 1st Half	38%	50%
Win 2nd Half	46%	25%
Draw 2nd Half	38%	25%
Loss 2nd Half	15%	50%
Scored 2nd Half	62%	50%
Conceded 2nd Half	31%	58%
Over 0.5 HT	85%	75%
Over 1.5 HT	15%	50%

Recent Venue Form

Lugo (H)

Deportivo La Coruña II3–0

UD Logroñés3–1

Racing Ferrol1–0

CD Coria1–0

Ourense CF1–0

Coruxo2–1

Mérida AD (A)

Arenas Getxo4–0

Pontevedra2–1

Ponferradina0–1

Cultural Leonesa0–1

Leganes0–3

Benfica B0–4

Head to Head · 2 matches

Lugo

100%

Draws

Mérida AD

50%

Over 1.5

1/2

Over 2.5

0/2

Over 3.5

0/2

BTTS

0/2

03/05/26

Mérida AD

0–2

Lugo

03/01/26

Lugo

1–0

Mérida AD

Primera División RFEF - Group 1

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lugo	9	7	1	1	+8	22
2	UD Logroñés	9	6	2	1	+8	20
3	Racing Ferrol	9	5	1	3	+2	16
4	Cacereño	9	4	3	2	+3	15
5	Mirandes	9	4	2	3	+2	14
6	Pontevedra	9	4	2	3	+1	14
7	Extremadura 1924	9	4	1	4	+6	13
8	Real Unión	9	3	4	2	+5	13
9	Ponferradina	9	3	4	2	0	13
10	Mérida AD	8	4	0	4	+3	12
11	Athletic Club II	9	3	3	3	+2	12
12	Zamora	9	3	3	3	+1	12
13	Cultural Leonesa	9	3	3	3	+1	12
14	Real Avilés	9	3	2	4	+2	11
15	Barakaldo	9	2	4	3	-2	10
16	Unionistas de Salamanca	9	3	1	5	-3	10
17	CD Coria	8	2	2	4	-4	8
18	Deportivo La Coruña II	9	2	2	5	-8	8
19	UD Ourense	9	1	2	6	-12	5
20	Arenas Getxo	9	1	2	6	-15	5