Busko-Zdroj vs Jarosław — III Liga - Group 4
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Busko-Zdroj and Jarosław meet in the III Liga - Group 4 2026 season on 8 November 2026. Busko-Zdroj have recorded 5 wins from 18 matches this season (28% win rate), averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.28 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 72% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 83%; and clean sheets in 6% of games. Jarosław have won 37% of their 19 matches, with 2.11 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 84%, Over 2.5 at 84%, and clean sheets at 11%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.89 for Busko-Zdroj and 1.60 for Jarosław. The models give Busko-Zdroj a 44% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Jarosław win at 31%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 68% and BTTS at 68%.
Season Statistics
Busko-Zdroj—
Jarosław15º
Position
10º
1.00
PPG
1.31
29%
Win %
38%
1.43
Goals / game
2.23
2.29
Conceded / game
1.92
72%
BTTS %
84%
6%
Clean sheet %
11%
83%
Over 2.5 %
84%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Busko-Zdroj
Home (6)
—
Jarosław
Away (5)
1.67
PPG
0.80
50%
Win %
20%
1.83
Goals / game
1.60
1.83
Conceded / game
2.20
67%
BTTS %
89%
11%
Clean sheet %
0%
89%
Over 2.5 %
89%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Busko-Zdroj | Home | Away | Jarosław | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 78% | 78% | 78% | 95% | 100% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 33% | 56% | 11% | 53% | 60% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 17% | 22% | 11% | 32% | 40% | 22% |
| Failed To Score | 22% | 22% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 11% |
Goals Conceded
| Busko-Zdroj | Home | Away | Jarosław | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 94% | 89% | 100% | 89% | 80% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 56% | 44% | 67% | 68% | 70% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 39% | 44% | 33% | 21% | 20% | 22% |
| Clean Sheets | 6% | 11% | 0% | 11% | 20% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Busko-Zdroj | Jarosław | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 94% | 95% |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 84% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 63% |
| Over 4.5 | 33% | 21% |
| BTTS | 72% | 84% |
| BTTS & Win | 22% | 26% |
| BTTS & Draw | 11% | 21% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 61% | 79% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 22% | 5% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Busko-Zdroj | Jarosław | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 33% | 37% |
| Draw 1st Half | 33% | 37% |
| Loss 1st Half | 33% | 26% |
| Scored 1st Half | 56% | 63% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 50% | 47% |
| Win 2nd Half | 17% | 37% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 17% | 37% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 67% | 26% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 50% | 68% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 83% | 53% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 83% | 79% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 44% | 47% |
Recent Venue Form
Busko-Zdroj (H)L
Hetman Zamosc2–4
Hetman Zamosc2–4W
Wisła Kraków II3–0
Wisła Kraków II3–0W
Moravia Morawica2–1
Moravia Morawica2–1W
Wiślanie Jaśkowice2–1
Wiślanie Jaśkowice2–1L
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–4
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–4D
Wisłoka Dębica1–1
Wisłoka Dębica1–1Jarosław (A)LHetman Zamosc0–1
Hetman Zamosc0–1LWisła Kraków II1–2
Wisła Kraków II1–2DMoravia Morawica2–2
Moravia Morawica2–2LWiślanie Jaśkowice1–3
Wiślanie Jaśkowice1–3WSiarka Tarnobrzeg3–1
Siarka Tarnobrzeg3–1LWisłoka Dębica1–3
Wisłoka Dębica1–3| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chełmianka Chełm | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | +16 | 34 |
| 2 |  KSZO 1929 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 | Wisłoka Dębica | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 4 |  Naprzód | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 24 |
| 5 |  Czarni Połaniec | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 24 |
| 6 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | +6 | 21 |
| 7 | Hetman Zamosc | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 | Wisła Kraków II | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Jarosław | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | +4 | 17 |
| 11 |  Star Starachowice | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 |  Sokół Kolb. | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 13 |  KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 14 |  Korona Kielce II | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Busko-Zdroj | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 |
| 16 |  Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -9 | 13 |
| 17 |  Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 11 |
| 18 | Moravia Morawica | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -11 | 9 |
Team Insights
Busko-Zdroj- ●Busko-Zdroj have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Busko-Zdroj have lost their last 3 matches.
- ●Busko-Zdroj have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Busko-Zdroj have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Busko-Zdroj have lost their last 5 away matches.
- ●Busko-Zdroj failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 8 away matches.
- ●Busko-Zdroj have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Busko-Zdroj failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Busko-Zdroj have scored in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Busko-Zdroj failed to keep a clean sheet in 8 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Busko-Zdroj have lost 6 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Busko-Zdroj have scored in 7 of their 8 away matches.
- ●66% of Busko-Zdroj's goals conceded were conceded away.
Jarosław- ●Jarosław have failed to win in their last 5 matches.
- ●Jarosław have lost their last 4 matches.
- ●Jarosław failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Jarosław have scored in each of their last 8 home matches.
- ●Jarosław have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Jarosław failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Jarosław failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Jarosław have scored in 8 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Jarosław failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Jarosław have lost 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Jarosław have scored in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●72% of Jarosław's goals have been scored at home.
- ●76% of Jarosław's points have been earned at home.
Season Schedule
Busko-ZdrojLACzarni Połaniec1–2
Czarni Połaniec1–2LHHetman Zamosc2–4
Hetman Zamosc2–4LAKSZO 19290–5
KSZO 19290–5WHWisła Kraków II3–0
Wisła Kraków II3–0LANaprzód1–4
Naprzód1–4WHMoravia Morawica2–1
Moravia Morawica2–1–HStar Starachowice22/08
Star Starachowice22/08–HChełmianka Chełm31/10
Chełmianka Chełm31/10–HJarosław08/11
Jarosław08/11JarosławLAHetman Zamosc0–1
Hetman Zamosc0–1LHKSZO 19291–3
KSZO 19291–3LAWisła Kraków II1–2
Wisła Kraków II1–2LHNaprzód1–3
Naprzód1–3DAMoravia Morawica2–2
Moravia Morawica2–2WHPogoń-Sokół Lubaczów5–2
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów5–2–HCzarni Połaniec31/10
Czarni Połaniec31/10–ABusko-Zdroj08/11
Busko-Zdroj08/11–HChełmianka Chełm14/11
Chełmianka Chełm14/11Top Scorers
Busko-ZdrojB. Sowa4 ⚽
M. Pokora4 ⚽
K. Czepielik2 ⚽
K. Kaczowka2 ⚽
M. Kawecki2 ⚽
K. Czajkowski1 ⚽
JarosławD. Fkhakadze7 ⚽
G. Janiczak6 ⚽
S. Magdziak4 ⚽
P. Mrozinski3 ⚽
B. Purcha3 ⚽
A. Prokic3 ⚽
Cards Given
Busko-ZdrojJarosław1 🟨