Ards vs Warrenpoint Town — Championship
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Ards and Warrenpoint Town meet in the Championship 2026 season on 5 December 2026. Ards have recorded 4 wins from 17 matches this season (24% win rate), averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 47% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 35%; and clean sheets in 24% of games. Warrenpoint Town have won 38% of their 16 matches, with 1.75 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 50%, Over 2.5 at 56%, and clean sheets at 25%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.32 for Ards and 1.49 for Warrenpoint Town. The models give Ards a 38% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Warrenpoint Town win at 36%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 53% and BTTS at 57%.
Season Statistics
Ards—
Warrenpoint Town9º
Position
8º
1.21
PPG
1.50
29%
Win %
42%
1.14
Goals / game
1.75
1.21
Conceded / game
1.42
47%
BTTS %
50%
24%
Clean sheet %
25%
35%
Over 2.5 %
56%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Ards
Home (7)
—
Warrenpoint Town
Away (6)
0.71
PPG
1.33
14%
Win %
33%
0.71
Goals / game
1.67
1.57
Conceded / game
1.67
43%
BTTS %
44%
14%
Clean sheet %
22%
43%
Over 2.5 %
67%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Ards | Home | Away | Warrenpoint Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 59% | 57% | 60% | 75% | 86% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 24% | 14% | 30% | 44% | 43% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 12% | 0% | 20% | 25% | 29% | 22% |
| Failed To Score | 41% | 43% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 33% |
Goals Conceded
| Ards | Home | Away | Warrenpoint Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 76% | 86% | 70% | 75% | 71% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 35% | 57% | 20% | 63% | 43% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 6% | 14% | 0% | 25% | 14% | 33% |
| Clean Sheets | 24% | 14% | 30% | 25% | 29% | 22% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Ards | Warrenpoint Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 88% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 88% |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 38% |
| Over 4.5 | 0% | 25% |
| BTTS | 47% | 50% |
| BTTS & Win | 12% | 13% |
| BTTS & Draw | 24% | 19% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 29% | 44% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 6% | 13% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Ards | Warrenpoint Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 31% | 40% |
| Draw 1st Half | 44% | 33% |
| Loss 1st Half | 25% | 27% |
| Scored 1st Half | 44% | 53% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 38% | 47% |
| Win 2nd Half | 19% | 33% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 38% | 40% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 44% | 27% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 31% | 60% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 63% | 53% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 69% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 31% | 33% |
Recent Venue Form
Ards (H)D
Newry City AFC1–1
Newry City AFC1–1L
Institute0–2
Institute0–2L
Strabane Athletic0–1
Strabane Athletic0–1W
Rathfriland1–0
Rathfriland1–0L
Queen's University0–3
Queen's University0–3L
Loughgall1–2
Loughgall1–2Warrenpoint Town (A)D
Ballinamallard United2–2
Ballinamallard United2–2WRathfriland2–0
Rathfriland2–0LInstitute0–2
Institute0–2DLoughgall3–3
Loughgall3–3WNewry City AFC3–0
Newry City AFC3–0L
H&W Welders0–3
H&W Welders0–3Head to Head · 17 matches
7
Ards
41%
4
Draws
24%
6
Warrenpoint Town
35%
65%
Over 1.5
11/17
47%
Over 2.5
8/17
29%
Over 3.5
5/17
53%
BTTS
9/17
15/08/26Ards
Warrenpoint Town
1–3Ards25/04/26Ards
Warrenpoint Town
0–1Ards21/03/26Warrenpoint Town
Ards
3–0Warrenpoint Town26/12/25Warrenpoint Town
Ards
0–0Warrenpoint Town13/09/25Ards
Warrenpoint Town
2–0Ards11/04/23Warrenpoint Town
Ards
1–0Warrenpoint Town21/01/23Warrenpoint Town
Ards
3–5Warrenpoint Town26/11/22Ards
Warrenpoint Town
1–4Ards03/09/22Ards
Warrenpoint Town
2–1Ards27/04/19Ards
Warrenpoint Town
1–1Ards16/03/19Warrenpoint Town
Ards
0–1Warrenpoint Town01/12/18Warrenpoint Town
Ards
1–1Warrenpoint Town13/10/18Ards
Warrenpoint Town
1–0Ards03/04/18Warrenpoint Town
Ards
4–2Warrenpoint Town30/12/17Ards
Warrenpoint Town
3–3Ards20/10/17Warrenpoint Town
Ards
2–1Warrenpoint Town19/08/17Ards
Warrenpoint Town
1–0Ards| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Limavady United | 38 | 24 | 9 | 5 | +35 | 81 |
| 2 |  Annagh United | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | +16 | 72 |
| 2 |  Glenavon FC | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | +18 | 27 |
| 3 | H&W Welders | 38 | 19 | 9 | 10 | +39 | 66 |
| 4 |  Newington Youth | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | +15 | 60 |
| 5 | Queen's University | 38 | 15 | 12 | 11 | +5 | 57 |
| 6 | Loughgall | 38 | 14 | 14 | 10 | +12 | 56 |
| 7 | Institute | 38 | 17 | 8 | 13 | +13 | 59 |
| 7 | Newry City AFC | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 20 |
| 8 | Ards | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | +5 | 52 |
| 9 | Warrenpoint Town | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | -8 | 41 |
| 10 | Ballinamallard United | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 |  Dundela | 38 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -34 | 28 |
| 12 |  Armagh City | 38 | 4 | 7 | 27 | -82 | 19 |
| 12 |  Moyola Park | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 15 |
| 13 | Rathfriland | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 13 |
| 15 | Strabane Athletic | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
Team Insights
Ards- ●Ards have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Ards have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
- ●Ards failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Ards have lost 4 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Ards failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Ards have won 3 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Ards have scored in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●69% of Ards's goals have been scored away.
- ●65% of Ards's goals conceded were conceded at home.
- ●71% of Ards's points have been earned away.
Warrenpoint Town- ●Warrenpoint Town have been undefeated in their last 4 matches.
- ●Warrenpoint Town have been undefeated in their last 3 home matches.
- ●Warrenpoint Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
Season Schedule
ArdsDHNewry City AFC1–1
Newry City AFC1–1DAArmagh City1–1
Armagh City1–1LHInstitute0–2
Institute0–2WANewington Youth2–0
Newington Youth2–0DABallinamallard United1–1
Ballinamallard United1–1LHStrabane Athletic0–1
Strabane Athletic0–1–AH&W Welders07/11
H&W Welders07/11–HMoyola Park13/11
Moyola Park13/11–HNewington Youth21/11
Newington Youth21/11Warrenpoint TownDABallinamallard United2–2
Ballinamallard United2–2WHStrabane Athletic1–0
Strabane Athletic1–0DHAnnagh United1–1
Annagh United1–1WARathfriland2–0
Rathfriland2–0LAInstitute0–2
Institute0–2WHMoyola Park6–2
Moyola Park6–2–HQueen's University07/11
Queen's University07/11–ANewington Youth13/11
Newington Youth13/11–HInstitute21/11
Institute21/11Top Scorers
ArdsWarrenpoint TownR. Powell3 ⚽
A. Jinadu1 ⚽
D. Trainor1 ⚽
1 ⚽