Southampton vs Middlesbrough — Championship
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Southampton and Middlesbrough meet in the Championship 2026 season on 27 November 2026. Southampton have recorded 12 wins from 18 matches this season (67% win rate), averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 72% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 61%; and clean sheets in 28% of games. Middlesbrough have won 53% of their 19 matches, with 2.05 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 74%, Over 2.5 at 74%, and clean sheets at 21%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 2.05 for Southampton and 1.46 for Middlesbrough. The models give Southampton a 52% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Middlesbrough win at 25%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 67% and BTTS at 66%.
Season Statistics
Southampton—
Middlesbrough5º
Position
1º
2.08
PPG
2.15
62%
Win %
62%
2.15
Goals / game
2.31
1.00
Conceded / game
1.31
72%
BTTS %
74%
28%
Clean sheet %
21%
61%
Over 2.5 %
74%
5.1
Avg corners
6.5
15.7
Avg shots
19.3
4.9
Avg shots on target
6.3
1.8
Avg yellow cards
1.2
8.0
Avg fouls
10.3
56.5%
Avg possession
57.6%
Home vs Away
Southampton
Home (7)
—
Middlesbrough
Away (6)
2.71
PPG
1.83
86%
Win %
50%
2.86
Goals / game
2.17
0.71
Conceded / game
1.33
75%
BTTS %
78%
25%
Clean sheet %
11%
75%
Over 2.5 %
67%
5.1
Avg corners
6.5
15.7
Avg shots
19.3
4.9
Avg shots on target
6.3
1.8
Avg yellow cards
1.2
56.5%
Avg possession
57.6%
Goals Scored
| Southampton | Home | Away | Middlesbrough | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 95% | 88% | 100% | 95% | 100% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 47% | 63% | 36% | 58% | 70% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 37% | 63% | 18% | 37% | 40% | 33% |
| Failed To Score | 5% | 13% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 11% |
Goals Conceded
| Southampton | Home | Away | Middlesbrough | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 74% | 75% | 73% | 79% | 70% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 21% | 13% | 27% | 47% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 5% | 13% | 0% | 21% | 30% | 11% |
| Clean Sheets | 26% | 25% | 27% | 21% | 30% | 11% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Southampton | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 84% |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 53% |
| Over 4.5 | 26% | 21% |
| BTTS | 74% | 74% |
| BTTS & Win | 42% | 32% |
| BTTS & Draw | 16% | 32% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 58% | 63% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 11% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Southampton | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 53% | 44% |
| Draw 1st Half | 32% | 33% |
| Loss 1st Half | 16% | 22% |
| Scored 1st Half | 68% | 56% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 47% | 44% |
| Win 2nd Half | 53% | 56% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 26% | 17% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 21% | 28% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 63% | 72% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 42% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 84% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 42% | 39% |
Recent Venue Form
Southampton (H)W
QPR4–1
QPR4–1D
Bolton0–0
Bolton0–0W
Portsmouth1–0
Portsmouth1–0W
Bristol City4–1
Bristol City4–1W
Swansea3–1
Swansea3–1W
Millwall5–1
Millwall5–1Middlesbrough (A)WBolton5–1
Bolton5–1W
Stoke City3–2
Stoke City3–2D
Birmingham2–2
Birmingham2–2L
Crystal Palace0–3
Crystal Palace0–3WQPR1–0
QPR1–0D
Burnley1–1
Burnley1–1Number of Corners
9.8
Corners / Match
15 games
League Avg
10.5
156 games
10.6
Corners / Match
16 games
| Match Corners | Southampton | Middlesbrough | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 73% | 94% | 88% |
| Over 7 | 60% | 81% | 79% |
| Over 8 | 40% | 63% | 67% |
| Over 9 | 40% | 63% | 58% |
| Over 10 | 33% | 44% | 47% |
| Over 11 | 33% | 44% | 40% |
| Over 12 | 20% | 31% | 31% |
| Over 13 | 13% | 25% | 24% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Southampton | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.1 | 6.5 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.7 | 4.1 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 80% | 94% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 67% | 69% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 60% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 80% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 60% | 63% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 33% | 44% |
Head to Head · 10 matches
4
Southampton
40%
3
Draws
30%
3
Middlesbrough
30%
80%
Over 1.5
8/10
60%
Over 2.5
6/10
10%
Over 3.5
1/10
60%
BTTS
6/10
12/05/26Middlesbrough
Southampton
2–1Middlesbrough09/05/26Southampton
Middlesbrough
0–0Southampton04/01/26Southampton
Middlesbrough
4–0Southampton27/09/25Middlesbrough
Southampton
1–1Middlesbrough29/03/24Middlesbrough
Southampton
1–1Middlesbrough23/09/23Southampton
Middlesbrough
2–1Southampton13/05/17Southampton
Middlesbrough
1–2Southampton11/12/16Middlesbrough
Southampton
1–0Middlesbrough21/04/12Southampton
Middlesbrough
2–1Southampton29/10/11Middlesbrough
Southampton
3–0Middlesbrough| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 | Swansea | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | +7 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 24 |
| 5 | Southampton | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | +15 | 23 |
| 6 | Birmingham | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +10 | 23 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 22 |
| 9 | QPR | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | +5 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 19 |
| 12 | Millwall | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 19 | Bolton | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -14 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -17 | 5 |
Team Insights
Southampton- ●Southampton have been undefeated in their last 6 matches.
- ●Southampton have been undefeated in their last 7 home matches.
- ●Southampton have been undefeated in their last 3 away matches.
- ●Southampton have scored in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Southampton failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Southampton have scored in 6 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Southampton failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Southampton have scored in 7 of their 7 away matches.
- ●69% of Southampton's goals have been scored at home.
Middlesbrough- ●Middlesbrough have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have scored in each of their last 13 matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have been undefeated in their last 7 home matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have scored in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have scored in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Middlesbrough failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have scored in 7 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Middlesbrough failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have won 3 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have scored in 6 of their 6 away matches.
Season Schedule
SouthamptonDAWest Brom1–1
West Brom1–1WHQPR4–1
QPR4–1WAWest Ham3–2
West Ham3–2DHBolton0–0
Bolton0–0WANorwich1–0
Norwich1–0WHPortsmouth1–0
Portsmouth1–0–APreston07/11
Preston07/11–HDerby21/11
Derby21/11–ASheffield Utd24/11
Sheffield Utd24/11MiddlesbroughWHCharlton3–0
Charlton3–0WABolton5–1
Bolton5–1DHCardiff2–2
Cardiff2–2WAStoke City3–2
Stoke City3–2WHWolves1–0
Wolves1–0DABirmingham2–2
Birmingham2–2–AWrexham04/11
Wrexham04/11–AWatford07/11
Watford07/11–HBristol City21/11
Bristol City21/11Top Scorers
SouthamptonC. Larin5 ⚽
Kuryu Matsuki4 ⚽
Cyle Larin3 ⚽
L. Scienza3 ⚽
Finn Azaz2 ⚽
James Bree2 ⚽
Middlesbroughwill lankshear9 ⚽
W. Lankshear6 ⚽
Sebastian Berhalter3 ⚽
Amario Cozier-Duberry3 ⚽
J. Sarmiento2 ⚽
L. Castledine2 ⚽
Cards Given
SouthamptonCameron Bragg3 🟨
3 🟨
J. Bree2 🟨
Cyle Larin2 🟨
F. Downes2 🟨
Flynn Downes2 🟨
MiddlesbroughRiley McGree3 🟨
Ashley Phillips2 🟨
2 🟨
Neto Borges2 🟨
Sebastian Berhalter2 🟨
W. Lankshear2 🟨