Derby vs Watford — Championship
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Derby and Watford meet in the Championship 2026 season on 28 November 2026. Derby have recorded 3 wins from 20 matches this season (15% win rate), averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 65% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 55%; and clean sheets in 10% of games. Watford have won 26% of their 19 matches, with 1.05 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 53%, Over 2.5 at 53%, and clean sheets at 16%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.36 for Derby and 1.11 for Watford. The models give Derby a 43% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an Watford win at 29%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 45% and BTTS at 50%.
Season Statistics
Derby—
Watford23º
Position
21º
0.54
PPG
0.85
8%
Win %
23%
0.85
Goals / game
0.92
1.92
Conceded / game
1.77
65%
BTTS %
53%
10%
Clean sheet %
16%
55%
Over 2.5 %
53%
5.5
Avg corners
3.9
12.3
Avg shots
13.8
3.9
Avg shots on target
4.6
2.1
Avg yellow cards
2.4
12.6
Avg fouls
10.7
50.2%
Avg possession
47.5%
Home vs Away
Derby
Home (6)
—
Watford
Away (7)
0.33
PPG
0.14
0%
Win %
0%
0.67
Goals / game
0.57
1.67
Conceded / game
2.00
63%
BTTS %
56%
0%
Clean sheet %
0%
63%
Over 2.5 %
44%
5.5
Avg corners
3.9
12.3
Avg shots
13.8
3.9
Avg shots on target
4.6
2.1
Avg yellow cards
2.4
50.2%
Avg possession
47.5%
Goals Scored
| Derby | Home | Away | Watford | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 71% | 56% | 83% | 70% | 82% | 56% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 19% | 11% | 25% | 30% | 36% | 22% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 5% | 0% | 8% | 5% | 9% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 29% | 44% | 17% | 30% | 18% | 44% |
Goals Conceded
| Derby | Home | Away | Watford | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 90% | 100% | 83% | 80% | 64% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 52% | 67% | 42% | 40% | 27% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 29% | 22% | 33% | 20% | 18% | 22% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 0% | 17% | 20% | 36% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Derby | Watford | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 25% |
| Over 4.5 | 10% | 15% |
| BTTS | 62% | 50% |
| BTTS & Win | 5% | 10% |
| BTTS & Draw | 24% | 15% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 43% | 40% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 14% | 10% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Derby | Watford | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 30% | 15% |
| Draw 1st Half | 20% | 30% |
| Loss 1st Half | 50% | 55% |
| Scored 1st Half | 55% | 30% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 65% | 70% |
| Win 2nd Half | 20% | 25% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 30% | 55% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 50% | 20% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 30% | 50% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 60% | 40% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 95% | 85% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 50% | 50% |
Recent Venue Form
Derby (H)L
Norwich0–4
Norwich0–4L
Stoke City0–1
Stoke City0–1D
Wrexham1–1
Wrexham1–1L
Birmingham1–2
Birmingham1–2L
West Brom0–1
West Brom0–1L
Swansea0–3
Swansea0–3Watford (A)LNorwich2–3
Norwich2–3L
Wolves0–1
Wolves0–1L
Cardiff1–5
Cardiff1–5L
Bristol City0–1
Bristol City0–1LWest Brom0–1
West Brom0–1LSwansea0–2
Swansea0–2Number of Corners
10.9
Corners / Match
14 games
League Avg
10.5
156 games
9.9
Corners / Match
15 games
| Match Corners | Derby | Watford | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 93% | 87% | 88% |
| Over 7 | 93% | 67% | 79% |
| Over 8 | 93% | 53% | 67% |
| Over 9 | 71% | 47% | 58% |
| Over 10 | 57% | 47% | 47% |
| Over 11 | 36% | 40% | 40% |
| Over 12 | 36% | 33% | 31% |
| Over 13 | 29% | 13% | 24% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Derby | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| Corners Against / Match | 5.4 | 6.0 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 86% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 71% | 47% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 64% | 27% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 93% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 86% | 67% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 57% | 60% |
Head to Head · 14 matches
5
Derby
36%
1
Draws
7%
8
Watford
57%
86%
Over 1.5
12/14
71%
Over 2.5
10/14
36%
Over 3.5
5/14
71%
BTTS
10/14
21/02/26Derby
Watford
2–0Derby22/11/25Watford
Derby
2–3Watford18/01/25Watford
Derby
0–2Watford24/08/24Derby
Watford
2–1Derby19/02/21Derby
Watford
2–1Derby16/10/20Watford
Derby
0–1Watford03/04/15Watford
Derby
2–2Watford22/11/14Derby
Watford
1–2Derby26/04/14Watford
Derby
4–2Watford19/10/13Derby
Watford
2–3Derby23/02/13Derby
Watford
2–1Derby01/09/12Watford
Derby
5–1Watford10/03/12Watford
Derby
1–2Watford13/08/11Derby
Watford
0–1Derby| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 | Swansea | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | +7 | 26 |
| 3 | Wolves | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 24 |
| 4 | West Brom | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | +15 | 23 |
| 6 | Birmingham | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +10 | 23 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | +5 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 | Norwich | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 17 | Cardiff | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 | Watford | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -14 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -17 | 5 |
Team Insights
Derby- ●Derby have failed to win in their last 10 matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 10 matches.
- ●Derby have failed to win in their last 7 home matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Derby have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Derby have lost 5 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Derby have scored in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●64% of Derby's goals have been scored away.
- ●71% of Derby's points have been earned away.
- ●Derby have scored 55% of their goals in the first half.
- ●Derby have conceded 59% of their goals in the first half.
Watford- ●Watford have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Watford have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Watford have lost their last 6 away matches.
- ●Watford failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Watford failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Watford have scored in 6 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Watford failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Watford have lost 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●69% of Watford's goals have been scored at home.
- ●93% of Watford's points have been earned at home.
- ●Watford have conceded 70% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
DerbyLHNorwich0–4
Norwich0–4LAMillwall1–4
Millwall1–4DASheffield Utd1–1
Sheffield Utd1–1LHStoke City0–1
Stoke City0–1LAQPR1–4
QPR1–4DHWrexham1–1
Wrexham1–1–HBolton06/11
Bolton06/11–ASouthampton21/11
Southampton21/11–AWolves24/11
Wolves24/11WatfordWHLincoln1–0
Lincoln1–0LANorwich2–3
Norwich2–3LAWolves0–1
Wolves0–1WHCharlton2–0
Charlton2–0LACardiff1–5
Cardiff1–5LHBurnley0–4
Burnley0–4–HMiddlesbrough07/11
Middlesbrough07/11–ASheffield Utd21/11
Sheffield Utd21/11–HBlackburn25/11
Blackburn25/11Top Scorers
DerbyS. Szmodics4 ⚽
B. Clark2 ⚽
C. Morris2 ⚽
Bobby Clark2 ⚽
D. Brown1 ⚽
C. Smith1 ⚽
WatfordA. Nabizada3 ⚽
Myron Boadu2 ⚽
M. Doumbia2 ⚽
L. Kjerrumgaard2 ⚽
Jordan Zemura1 ⚽
Edo Kayembe1 ⚽
Cards Given
DerbyL. Travis3 🟨
D. Ozoh3 🟨
3 🟨
Dion Sanderson2 🟨
Alex Mowatt2 🟨
D. Sanderson2 🟨
WatfordEdo Kayembe4 🟨
Iker Bravo4 🟨
3 🟨
Amin Nabizada3 🟨
H. Kyprianou2 🟨
Branimir Mlacic2 🟨